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LUMA Basketball Research · Working paper v1 · October 1, 2026

Estimating the Cost of NBA Shooting Volume: Points Above Cost (PAC)

Ayomide Awoyemi · LUMA Basketball Research

Read the abstractData and code on GitHub

  • 1-yearthat season alone
  • 2-year2 seasons summed
  • 3-year3 seasons summed
  • 4-year4 seasons summed
  • 5-year5 seasons summed
  • Careerevery season since 1997–98
  • All seasonsevery player-season, ranked
  • 2025–26
  • 2024–25
  • 2023–24
  • 2022–23
  • 2021–22
  • 2020–21
  • 2019–20
  • 2018–19
  • 2017–18
  • 2016–17
  • 2015–16
  • 2014–15
  • 2013–14
  • 2012–13
  • 2011–12
  • 2010–11
  • 2009–10
  • 2008–09
  • 2007–08
  • 2006–07
  • 2005–06
  • 2004–05
  • 2003–04
  • 2002–03
  • 2001–02
  • 2000–01
  • 1999–00
  • 1998–99
  • 1997–98
2025–26, every game counted.
  • All positions
  • Guards
  • Wings
  • Centers
  • Any minutes
  • 250+ minutes
  • 500+ minutes
  • 1,000+ minutes
  • 1,500+ minutes
  • 2,000+ minutes
  • Any share
  • Share 10%+scoring volume
  • Share 15%+scoring volume
  • Share 20%+scoring volume
  • Share 25%+scoring volume
  • Share 30%+scoring volume
272 players
SampleScoring · per 100Value · per 100Total
#PlayerGP MIN Poss PTS Share rTS% PAC ↓TS Added PAC
1Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · Guard682,1804,79644.19933.0%98+8.795+8.46100+5.74100+405.8100
2Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL · Wing361,0152,16345.910034.9%99+7.593+8.28100+5.24100+179.296
3Nikola JokićDEN · Center652,2124,85437.19627.6%92+8.895+6.7799+4.8699+328.8100
4Jalen DurenDET · Center701,9184,14532.99123.9%80+10.698+6.4999+5.0599+268.999
5Kawhi LeonardLAC · Wing652,0304,24542.79933.8%99+4.985+6.1699+3.3096+261.698
6Stephen CurryGSW · Guard431,2652,87339.79731.0%96+5.889+6.0198+3.6098+172.694
7Luka DončićLAL · Guard642,2164,80444.610036.1%100+3.578+5.7798+2.5190+277.399
8Victor WembanyamaSAS · Center641,8133,97740.29832.0%98+4.684+5.5097+2.9593+218.997
9Kevin DurantHOU · Wing782,7425,81634.89427.0%90+6.391+5.2397+3.4197+304.199
10Jaxson HayesLAL · Center661,1642,53019.63413.0%10+17.599+4.9697+4.5499+125.588
11Anthony EdwardsMIN · Guard612,0754,52038.99731.3%96+3.880+4.8396+2.3890+218.497
12Austin ReavesLAL · Guard511,7053,68432.28924.9%83+6.691+4.8196+3.2795+177.295
13Zion WilliamsonNOP · Wing621,7883,97032.89025.5%86+6.190+4.7396+3.1194+187.996
14Donovan MitchellCLE · Guard702,2865,03538.89731.5%97+3.477+4.5995+2.1288+231.297
15Jimmy Butler IIIGSW · Wing381,1122,50530.38723.4%77+6.792+4.4995+3.1395+112.583
16Jarrett AllenCLE · Center561,4813,24826.57419.8%57+8.694+4.4094+3.4297+142.991
17Luka GarzaBOS · Center691,0792,26524.66718.0%40+9.997+4.3994+3.5897+99.581
18Jamal MurrayDEN · Guard752,5865,54134.49327.4%91+4.683+4.3894+2.5190+242.798
19Joel EmbiidPHI · Center381,1682,52240.59833.4%99+2.368+4.3393+1.5381+109.282
20Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · Center691,4343,09916.81911.0%4+17.9100+4.2693+3.9598+132.091
21Chet HolmgrenOKC · Center691,9394,20728.18021.5%66+7.292+4.2293+3.0794+177.795
22Mark WilliamsPHX · Center601,3812,98823.45917.2%34+9.797+4.0992+3.3596+122.187
23Jakob PoeltlTOR · Center461,1232,40220.53814.7%19+11.699+3.9492+3.4096+94.679
24Lauri MarkkanenUTA · Wing421,3993,13735.89529.2%93+3.074+3.8792+1.7385+121.486
25Isaiah JoeOKC · Guard711,4503,17824.76818.7%48+7.793+3.7791+2.8992+119.886
26Deandre AytonLAL · Center721,9124,06022.15016.3%29+9.496+3.7391+3.0794+151.592
27Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · Wing601,1652,58824.26418.3%43+7.894+3.7190+2.8792+96.180
28Karl-Anthony TownsNYK · Center752,2654,83031.18825.0%84+3.981+3.5390+1.9685+170.394
29Kon KnueppelCHA · Wing812,4695,29728.38122.3%72+5.187+3.5290+2.2889+186.696
30James HardenCLE · Guard702,3614,99533.19127.0%90+3.175+3.4889+1.6784+173.994
31Luke KennardLAL · Guard781,6173,57118.32413.1%11+11.699+3.4689+3.0393+123.588
32Norman PowellMIA · Guard581,6733,78833.39227.2%91+2.973+3.4289+1.5781+129.590
33Keyonte GeorgeUTA · Guard541,7343,84033.29227.2%90+2.972+3.4088+1.5681+130.790
34Daniel GaffordDAL · Center551,1452,60120.13614.9%20+9.597+3.3788+2.8292+87.778
35Michael Porter Jr.BKN · Wing521,6443,45636.59630.4%95+1.765+3.3488+1.0372+115.585
36Neemias QuetaBOS · Center761,8703,84620.23615.0%21+9.196+3.2987+2.7391+126.489
37John CollinsLAC · Wing691,8223,82324.56619.0%50+6.290+3.2487+2.3489+123.788
38Cam SpencerMEM · Guard721,6623,64721.94816.6%31+7.793+3.2386+2.5491+117.985
39Jericho SimsMIL · Center671,2772,68212.538.1%0+19.0100+3.2386+3.0693+86.576
40Collin SextonCHI · Guard681,5543,46230.38624.6%83+3.477+3.2086+1.6984+110.783
41Deni AvdijaPOR · Wing662,1364,71133.99328.2%93+1.966+3.0785+1.0874+144.792
42Ayo DosunmuMIN · Guard691,8054,04025.37020.0%58+5.187+3.0585+2.0587+123.287
43Sandro MamukelashviliTOR · Center801,6823,68624.26419.0%50+5.588+2.9985+2.0888+110.183
44Sam MerrillCLE · Guard521,3352,92122.75417.6%37+6.290+2.9784+2.2088+86.877
45Trey Murphy IIINOP · Wing662,2744,96428.68123.2%76+3.578+2.9684+1.6283+146.992
46Zach LaVineSAC · Guard391,1972,56829.18323.7%80+3.276+2.9283+1.5180+75.074
47Tre JonesCHI · Guard651,6953,88323.55918.4%44+5.689+2.9083+2.0687+112.884
48Tyrese MaxeyPHI · Guard702,5805,57035.59430.0%95+1.058+2.8383+0.5864+157.693
49Devin BookerPHX · Guard642,0634,51636.99631.4%97+0.656+2.8282+0.3558+127.289
50Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL · Guard782,5325,66828.78223.4%78+3.075+2.7882+1.4178+157.593
51Day'Ron SharpeBKN · Center621,1262,38422.75317.7%38+5.689+2.7782+1.9886+66.169
52Desmond BaneORL · Guard822,6835,87128.17922.9%75+3.176+2.7381+1.4279+160.393
53Jerami GrantPOR · Wing571,6383,67628.88223.6%79+2.872+2.7381+1.3377+100.281
54Coby WhiteCHA · Guard501,1952,65232.79027.4%92+1.462+2.6681+0.7868+70.571
55Tyler HerroMIA · Guard331,0092,22630.48825.2%84+2.167+2.6580+1.0673+58.964
56Jaylen BrownBOS · Wing712,3674,97341.09935.7%100−0.840+2.5980−0.5933+128.990
57Gary Payton IIGSW · Guard731,0762,42022.65317.9%39+5.086+2.5879+1.7885+62.465
58Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN · Guard802,0694,48724.06319.2%53+4.282+2.5679+1.6383+114.785
59Luke KornetSAS · Center681,3943,05114.6810.6%3+10.498+2.4979+2.2189+76.074
60Keldon JohnsonSAS · Wing821,8484,07026.67421.7%68+3.074+2.4878+1.3076+100.881

Points Above Cost at s = 0.25. Rates are per 100 on-court possessions. Small numbers are percentiles among the players shown.

Player pagesShai Gilgeous-AlexanderNikola JokićKawhi LeonardVictor WembanyamaGiannis AntetokounmpoLuka DončićJimmy Butler IIIDonovan MitchellStephen CurryChet HolmgrenJarrett AllenLauri MarkkanenDyson DanielsDerrick WhiteAmen ThompsonBam AdebayoTyrese MaxeyTy JeromeCade CunninghamAustin ReavesDevin BookerPascal SiakamKevin DurantAusar ThompsonFranz WagnerNeemias QuetaJoel EmbiidPaul ReedZion WilliamsonJayson TatumMoussa DiabatéDay'Ron SharpeKarl-Anthony TownsAnthony EdwardsJalen SmithAlex CarusoMatisse ThybulleJalen DurenMarcus SmartEvan MobleyOG AnunobyZach EdeyCollin GillespieKon KnueppelAnthony DavisJaren Jackson Jr.Ryan RollinsJalen SuggsDesmond BaneRobert Williams IIIJrue HolidayScottie BarnesCJ McCollumLaMelo BallMiles McBrideJa MorantCedric CowardJamal MurrayMichael Porter Jr.Donte DiVincenzoDavion MitchellJalen JohnsonMitchell RobinsonAaron GordonSteven AdamsIsaiah HartensteinDe'Aaron FoxSandro MamukelashviliJosh GiddeyNickeil Alexander-WalkerCam SpencerBrandin PodziemskiBrandon MillerTrey Murphy IIILeBron JamesDevin VassellRudy GobertGrant WilliamsNorman PowellDarius GarlandTre JonesLuke KornetPaul GeorgeDereck Lively IIPayton PritchardClint CapelaNikola VučevićGui SantosRJ BarrettAjay MitchellIsaiah JoeJalen BrunsonDeni AvdijaJulian ChampagnieDylan HarperJustin ChampagnieKevin HuerterDe'Anthony MeltonSanti AldamaJames HardenKevin Porter Jr.Trae YoungJose AlvaradoJakob PoeltlSvi MykhailiukBrandon ClarkeCooper FlaggGary Payton IICameron JohnsonDonovan ClinganHerbert JonesSaddiq BeyJavonte GreenDomantas SabonisJulius RandleNaz ReidJalen WilliamsVJ EdgecombeDean WadeJonathan KumingaAll players A–Z
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