SAC @ MEM, Sat, Oct 31 (dynamic)

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·SAC @ MEM·Sat, Oct 31·10 of 11 right

SacramentoKings

105

MemphisGrizzlies

136▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	SAC	MEM	pred	pick	miss
Final			+31	MEM
ARC Live †	−7.1	+0.8	+7.9	MEM	23.1	✓
Pulse	−7.2	−0.9	+6.2	MEM	24.8	✓
DARKO	−7.7	−3.7	+4.0	MEM	27.0	✓
LOKI †	−5.2	−1.0	+4.2	MEM	26.8	✓
EPM	−10.2	−2.1	+8.1	MEM	22.9	✓
EPM projection	−6.1	−1.8	+4.3	MEM	26.8	✓
LEBRON	−5.4	−4.4	+1.0	MEM	30.0	✓
BPM	−8.8	−3.1	+5.6	MEM	25.4	✓
OpenRAPM	−3.6	−4.0	−0.3	SAC	31.4	✗
xPM	−5.4	−1.2	+4.2	MEM	26.8	✓
xRAPM	−8.1	−2.2	+5.9	MEM	25.1	✓

ARC Live †how it adds upARC Live record →

SAC	rating		min		48.2		adds
Domantas Sabonis	+2.59	×	38	÷	48.2	=	+2.04
Darius Acuff Jr.	−3.63	×	37	÷	48.2	=	−2.79
De'Andre Hunter	−1.50	×	32	÷	48.2	=	−1.00
Precious Achiuwa	−1.38	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−0.72
Zach LaVine	−0.15	×	21	÷	48.2	=	−0.07
Jonathan Mogbo	−3.57	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.85
Emanuel Sharp	−3.56	×	24	÷	48.2	=	−1.77
Malik Monk	−0.63	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.18
Nique Clifford	+0.81	×	11	÷	48.2	=	+0.18
Alex Karaban	−3.06	×	10	÷	48.2	=	−0.63
Daeqwon Plowden	−3.45	×	4	÷	48.2	=	−0.29
SAC team rating (sum)			241				−7.06

MEM	rating		min		47.8		adds
Cameron Boozer	−2.03	×	26	÷	47.8	=	−1.10
Cam Spencer	+1.82	×	25	÷	47.8	=	+0.95
Cedric Coward	+3.17	×	23	÷	47.8	=	+1.53
Jaylen Wells	+1.07	×	22	÷	47.8	=	+0.49
Zach Edey	+3.62	×	18	÷	47.8	=	+1.36
Jerami Grant	−1.69	×	23	÷	47.8	=	−0.81
GG Jackson	−1.15	×	21	÷	47.8	=	−0.51
Isaiah Stewart	−2.03	×	21	÷	47.8	=	−0.89
Kris Murray	+0.15	×	21	÷	47.8	=	+0.07
Javon Small	+1.27	×	20	÷	47.8	=	+0.53
Taylor Hendricks	−0.86	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.07
Karim López	−2.00	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.17
Jahmai Mashack	−3.23	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.27
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	−1.86	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.16
Carson Cooper	−2.00	×	3	÷	47.8	=	−0.13
MEM team rating (sum)			239				+0.83

predicted margin = MEM − SAC = +0.83 − (−7.06) = +7.89 → pick MEM

final margin = 136 − 105 = +31 → won MEM ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (not rated by that metric).

Box score

minutes played × that morning’s ratings

SAC	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Domantas Sabonis	38	+2.6	+0.3	+0.1	+2.1	+1.3	+1.6	+1.1	+0.6	+1.3	+2.7	−0.2
Darius Acuff Jr.	37	−3.6	−2.2	−3.5	−2.0	−3.7	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−1.1	−3.4	−2.0
De'Andre Hunter	32	−1.5	−1.1	−1.2	−1.9	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−3.9	−1.7	−1.8	−0.8
Precious Achiuwa	25	−1.4	−1.0	−0.2	−0.8	−1.2	−1.0	−0.1	−1.6	+1.0	−1.0	−3.1
Zach LaVine	21	−0.1	−1.2	−2.3	+0.2	−1.6	−1.2	−1.7	−1.5	+0.8	−1.1	−2.1
Jonathan Mogbo	25	−3.6	−2.4	−1.3	−3.5

MEM	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Cameron Boozer	26	−2.0	−0.5	−1.5	−2.0	+0.6	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	+0.8	−1.3	−2.0
Cam Spencer	25	+1.8	+0.8	−0.1	+1.5	0.0	+0.3	−0.3	+2.2	−1.3	+1.3	+1.3
Cedric Coward	23	+3.2	+1.1	−0.4	+1.4	+1.5	+1.7	−1.2	−0.2	−1.1	+1.0	+0.9
Jaylen Wells	22	+1.1	+0.3	−0.7	−0.5	+1.8	+1.3	−0.6	−3.1	+1.6	−1.8	0.0
Zach Edey	18	+3.6	+3.2	+0.7	+2.0	+2.9	+2.3	+0.9	+0.5	+0.3	+2.6	+4.8
Jerami Grant	23	−1.7	−0.9	−1.0	−1.6	−1.5	−1.0	−0.3	0.0	−1.5	−1.5	−2.0
GG Jackson	21	−1.1	−2.7	−1.8	−0.5	−2.3	−1.2	−0.8	−1.2	−2.8	−0.6	−2.9
Isaiah Stewart	21	−2.0	+0.1	−1.6	−1.0	−0.6	−0.6	−0.5	0.0	−1.0	+0.7	−1.3
Kris Murray	21	+0.2	−0.4	+0.2	0.0	−2.7	−2.0	−1.7	−1.5	−0.5	−1.6	+1.2
Javon Small	20	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	+0.8	+0.1	+0.4	−0.4	+1.0	−1.7	+0.5	−1.6
Taylor Hendricks	4	−0.9	−2.2	−0.7	−0.9	−3.3	−2.4	−2.0	−2.4	−1.3	−0.4	−2.4
Karim López	4	−2.0	−2.7	−2.0	−2.0	−4.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.2	−2.0
Jahmai Mashack	4	−3.2	−3.7	−2.7	−4.3	−8.7	−5.9	−3.7	−7.0	−3.0	−2.5	−4.6
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	4	−1.9	−2.2	+0.4	−1.2	−2.7	−2.1	−2.1	−0.1	−1.0	0.0	−2.5
Carson Cooper	3	−2.0	−2.6	−3.6	−2.0	−4.5	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.2	−2.0
Team rating	239	+0.8	−0.9	−3.7	−1.0	−2.1	−1.8	−4.4	−3.1	−4.0	−1.2	−2.2