Historical leaderboard, 2020–21 to 2025–26

HISTORICAL 2020–21 to 2025–26·7,230 games·180 team-seasons·9 metrics·frozen

Established players

ranked by net errESTABLISHED PLAYERS FULL FORECAST

Each metric’s results on the 2020–21 to 2025–26 regular seasons, computed using its ratings from before each season. Established players: a player under 250 minutes the season before, rookies included, counts as −2.0.

rk	metric	net err	margin r²	win % r	20–21	21–22	22–23	23–24	24–25	25–26
1–3	LOKI †LUMA Basketball Research↗	3.082.82–3.34	.170.152–.186	.805	.135	.155	.136	.183	.188	.211
1–2	PulseCourtSignal↗	3.132.85–3.42	.171.154–.187	.800	.153	.136	.134	.189	.200	.207
3–7	DARKOKostya Medvedovsky↗	3.363.06–3.65	.155.138–.172	.767	.137	.134	.107	.169	.200	.182
3–7	ARC, 2-year †LUMA Basketball Research↗	3.383.11–3.65	.152.135–.169	.776	.130	.125	.125	.169	.168	.192
3–8	LEBRONBBall Index↗	3.393.08–3.68	.159.142–.175	.770	.137	.144	.121	.185	.164	.201
3–7	OpenRAPMNathan Walker↗	3.393.08–3.69	.162.146–.178	.786	.126	.139	.123	.194	.199	.187
4–8	xRAPMJeremias Engelmann↗	3.483.18–3.78	.161.144–.177	.772	.124	.141	.131	.180	.199	.188
3–8	BPMBasketball-Reference↗	3.503.13–3.85	.154.136–.170	.772	.131	.112	.123	.172	.184	.197
9	EPMTaylor Snarr, Dunks & Threes↗	3.873.52–4.21	.157.141–.174	.778	.130	.147	.130	.172	.175	.186

	Same-season RAPM (ceiling)	1.681.52–1.82	.268.251–.286	.949	.227	.252	.205	.278	.300	.320
	Last season's RAPM, no prior (reference)	3.533.25–3.82	.141.123–.157	.729	.109	.122	.116	.173	.170	.146
	Everyone 0 (floor)	4.654.30–5.01	.125.109–.141	.678	.144	.142	.091	.125	.137	.114
	Last season's team (floor)	4.193.81–4.58	.103.087–.120	.629	.087	.104	.072	.131	.134	.105

? What this table shows

Rank: By net err: the range of places in the middle 90% of 2,000 resamples of team-seasons. Overlapping ranges: the data do not separate the metrics.
Margin r²: The share of the variation in final margins that the predicted margins explain. Small numbers: the 90% interval.
Win % r: The correlation between team rating and team win %.
Net err: The error between team rating and the team’s margin adjusted for opponent and home court, in points.
20–21 to 25–26: Margin r² in each season.
Reference rows: Not ranked. Same-season RAPM is fit on the same games (a ceiling). Last season’s RAPM has no prior. Everyone 0 and last season’s team are floors.

Method →