OKC @ HOU, Sat, Oct 31 (dynamic)

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·OKC @ HOU·Sat, Oct 31·7 of 11 right

Oklahoma CityThunder

HoustonRockets

119▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	OKC	HOU	pred	pick	miss
Final			+21	HOU
ARC Live †	+4.1	+8.8	+4.8	HOU	16.2	✓
Pulse	+3.3	+6.0	+2.7	HOU	18.3	✓
DARKO	+2.6	+6.0	+3.4	HOU	17.6	✓
LOKI †	+6.8	+6.9	+0.1	HOU	20.9	✓
EPM	−0.5	+3.6	+4.2	HOU	16.8	✓
EPM projection	+4.6	+5.4	+0.8	HOU	20.2	✓
LEBRON	+2.8	+2.2	−0.5	OKC	21.5	✗
BPM	+6.4	+1.0	−5.4	OKC	26.4	✗
OpenRAPM	−2.8	−2.4	+0.4	HOU	20.6	✓
xPM	+4.9	+3.6	−1.3	OKC	22.3	✗
xRAPM	+8.2	+5.2	−3.0	OKC	24.0	✗

ARC Live †how it adds upARC Live record →

OKC	rating		min		48		adds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+9.57	×	31	÷	48	=	+6.18
Jared McCain	−0.57	×	28	÷	48	=	−0.33
Ajay Mitchell	+1.99	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.08
Isaiah Hartenstein	+3.26	×	25	÷	48	=	+1.70
Kenrich Williams	+0.47	×	21	÷	48	=	+0.21
Aday Mara	−3.09	×	28	÷	48	=	−1.80
Jaylin Williams	+0.72	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.39
Bennett Stirtz	−3.45	×	26	÷	48	=	−1.87
Micah Peavy	−1.50	×	14	÷	48	=	−0.44
Josh Dix	−2.00	×	9	÷	48	=	−0.37
Brooks Barnhizer	−5.43	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.68
OKC team rating (sum)			240				+4.06

HOU	rating		min		48		adds
Marcus Smart	+2.95	×	36	÷	48	=	+2.21
Jabari Smith Jr.	−0.72	×	33	÷	48	=	−0.49
Alperen Sengun	+2.06	×	33	÷	48	=	+1.42
Amen Thompson	+4.31	×	28	÷	48	=	+2.51
Kevin Durant	+5.13	×	27	÷	48	=	+2.89
Tari Eason	+2.18	×	19	÷	48	=	+0.86
Bogdan Bogdanović	+0.96	×	19	÷	48	=	+0.38
Isaiah Crawford	−2.76	×	19	÷	48	=	−1.09
Clint Capela	+3.28	×	10	÷	48	=	+0.68
Jae'Sean Tate	−1.13	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.14
Bruce Thornton	−3.26	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.41
Oscar Tshiebwe	+0.26	×	4	÷	48	=	+0.02
HOU team rating (sum)			240				+8.84

predicted margin = HOU − OKC = +8.84 − (+4.06) = +4.78 → pick HOU

final margin = 119 − 98 = +21 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (not rated by that metric).

Box score

minutes played × that morning’s ratings

OKC	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	31	+9.6	+8.0	+6.3	+12.7	+8.2	+10.0	+6.7	+11.7	+2.7	+6.4	+9.3
Jared McCain	28	−0.6	−2.1	−0.8	−1.0	−3.5	−1.8	−2.7	−2.4	−2.3	−1.4	+0.1
Ajay Mitchell	26	+2.0	+1.9	+1.2	+2.1	+3.4	+3.2	+2.4	+1.9	+3.1	+1.8	+4.6
Isaiah Hartenstein	25	+3.3	+2.7	+2.8	+3.0	+4.0	+3.3	+3.6	+4.2	+0.1	+4.2	+3.3
Kenrich Williams	21	+0.5	+0.3	+0.1	+0.5	−1.6	−1.0	−0.8	+0.2	−2.4	+0.2	−0.7
Aday Mara	28	−3.1	−1.6	−2.3	−2.0	−3.2	−2.0	−2.0

HOU	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Marcus Smart	36	+3.0	+1.4	+1.2	+1.7	+2.1	+1.4	+0.5	−2.2	−2.2	+0.4	+3.6
Jabari Smith Jr.	33	−0.7	+0.3	+0.6	+0.4	+1.0	+1.4	+0.8	−0.7	+0.9	−0.6	+1.2
Alperen Sengun	33	+2.1	+3.0	+2.4	+2.6	+1.8	+2.8	+1.1	+4.2	+2.5	+3.1	+0.3
Amen Thompson	28	+4.3	+2.7	+1.5	+4.7	+2.0	+3.7	+2.0	+2.6	+1.5	+3.6	+3.8
Kevin Durant	27	+5.1	+3.3	+3.6	+3.3	+4.6	+4.2	+2.4	+4.5	+0.6	+1.8	+2.2
Tari Eason	19	+2.2	+1.1	+1.3	+1.9	−1.0	−0.2	+0.1	−1.6	+0.7	+1.7	+1.8
Bogdan Bogdanović	19	+1.0	−0.5	−0.2	−0.4	−0.4	−1.0	−1.8	−3.1	−2.5	−0.6	−1.0
Isaiah Crawford	19	−2.8	−2.0	−0.3	−3.9	−5.8	−4.8	−1.5	−3.0	−7.2	−4.2	−4.7
Clint Capela	10	+3.3	+0.9	+0.9	+1.8	+1.4	+0.8	−0.3	+0.4	+0.8	+0.9	+1.4
Jae'Sean Tate	6	−1.1	−1.2	−1.9	−2.2	−2.5	−2.6	−3.1	−3.9	−3.6	−0.9	−1.6
Bruce Thornton	6	−3.3	−1.4	−2.4	−2.0	−5.1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.4	−2.0
Oscar Tshiebwe	4	+0.3	−0.6	+1.2	+0.4	−1.9	−2.3	−0.3	−1.8	−2.3	−0.4	−3.0
Team rating	240	+8.8	+6.0	+6.0	+6.9	+3.6	+5.4	+2.2	+1.0	−2.4	+3.6	+5.2