OKC @ HOU, Sat, Oct 31 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·OKC @ HOU·Sat, Oct 31·6 of 10 right

Oklahoma CityThunder

HoustonRockets

119▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	OKC	HOU	pred	pick	miss
Final			+21	HOU
LOKI †	+6.8	+7.6	+0.8	HOU	20.2	✓
BPM	+6.4	+1.3	−5.0	OKC	26.1	✗
EPM projection	+4.6	+6.5	+1.9	HOU	19.1	✓
DARKO	+2.6	+5.3	+2.7	HOU	18.3	✓
OpenRAPM	+2.3	+1.9	−0.4	OKC	21.4	✗
EPM	+4.4	+5.1	+0.7	HOU	20.3	✓
xPM	+4.0	+4.5	+0.6	HOU	20.4	✓
Pulse	+1.6	+3.5	+1.9	HOU	19.1	✓
xRAPM	+8.2	+6.3	−1.9	OKC	22.9	✗
LEBRON	+2.8	+2.0	−0.7	OKC	21.7	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

OKC	rating		min		48		adds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+12.67	×	31	÷	48	=	+8.18
Jared McCain	−0.99	×	28	÷	48	=	−0.58
Ajay Mitchell	+2.07	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.12
Isaiah Hartenstein	+3.01	×	25	÷	48	=	+1.57
Kenrich Williams	+0.45	×	21	÷	48	=	+0.20
Aday Mara	−2.00	×	28	÷	48	=	−1.17
Jaylin Williams	+0.73	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.40
Bennett Stirtz	−2.00	×	26	÷	48	=	−1.08
Micah Peavy	−2.63	×	14	÷	48	=	−0.77
Josh Dix	−2.00	×	9	÷	48	=	−0.37
Brooks Barnhizer	−5.86	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.73
OKC team rating (sum)			240				+6.77

HOU	rating		min		48		adds
Marcus Smart	+1.70	×	36	÷	48	=	+1.27
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.26
Alperen Sengun	+2.59	×	33	÷	48	=	+1.78
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	28	÷	48	=	+2.72
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	27	÷	48	=	+1.87
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	19	÷	48	=	+0.77
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.16
Isaiah Crawford	−2.00	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.79
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	10	÷	48	=	+0.37
Jae'Sean Tate	−2.22	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.28
Bruce Thornton	−2.00	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.25
Oscar Tshiebwe	+0.39	×	4	÷	48	=	+0.03
HOU team rating (sum)			240				+7.59

predicted margin = HOU − OKC = +7.59 − (+6.77) = +0.83 → pick HOU

final margin = 119 − 98 = +21 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

OKC	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	31	+12.7	+11.7	+10.0	+6.0	+6.9	+8.9	+6.4	+5.8	+9.3	+6.7
Jared McCain	28	−1.0	−2.4	−1.8	−1.5	−3.2	−2.9	−1.4	−2.9	+0.1	−2.7
Ajay Mitchell	26	+2.1	+1.9	+3.2	+1.3	+2.5	+3.2	+1.8	+2.3	+4.6	+2.4
Isaiah Hartenstein	25	+3.0	+4.2	+3.3	+3.1	+3.5	+4.3	+4.2	+3.3	+3.3	+3.6
Kenrich Williams	21	+0.5	+0.2	−1.0	+0.3	−1.4	−0.6	+0.2	−1.0	−0.7	−0.8
Aday Mara	28	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Marcus Smart	36	+1.7	−2.2	+1.4	+1.3	+1.6	+2.0	+0.4	+1.8	+3.6	+0.5
Jabari Smith Jr.	33	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Alperen Sengun	33	+2.6	+4.2	+2.8	+2.3	+1.6	+1.1	+3.1	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1
Amen Thompson	28	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Kevin Durant	27	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Tari Eason	19	+1.9	−1.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	−0.8	+1.7	−0.7	+1.8	+0.1
Bogdan Bogdanović	19	−0.4	−3.1	−1.0	−0.3	−3.2	−0.6	−0.6	−2.0	−1.0	−1.8
Isaiah Crawford	19	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Clint Capela	10	+1.8	+0.4	+0.8	+1.2	+0.7	+1.3	+0.9	+1.3	+1.4	−0.3
Jae'Sean Tate	6	−2.2	−3.9	−2.6	−1.9	−2.9	−2.2	−0.9	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1
Bruce Thornton	6	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Oscar Tshiebwe	4	+0.4	−1.8	−2.3	+1.2	−2.1	−2.2	−0.4	−0.5	−3.0	−0.3
Team rating	240	+7.6	+1.3	+6.5	+5.3	+1.9	+5.1	+4.5	+3.5	+6.3	+2.0