MIN @ SAS, Sat, Oct 31 (dynamic)

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·MIN @ SAS·Sat, Oct 31·11 of 11 right

MinnesotaTimberwolves

111

San AntonioSpurs

121▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	MIN	SAS	pred	pick	miss
Final			+10	SAS
ARC Live †	+0.5	+12.7	+12.2	SAS	2.2	✓
Pulse	−0.3	+9.6	+9.9	SAS	0.1	✓
DARKO	+0.7	+9.0	+8.3	SAS	1.7	✓
LOKI †	−1.1	+11.7	+12.7	SAS	2.7	✓
EPM	0.0	+13.5	+13.5	SAS	3.5	✓
EPM projection	−2.3	+14.4	+16.8	SAS	6.8	✓
LEBRON	−3.0	+9.1	+12.1	SAS	2.1	✓
BPM	−1.4	+13.1	+14.6	SAS	4.6	✓
OpenRAPM	+1.2	+4.4	+3.2	SAS	6.8	✓
xPM	+0.6	+11.8	+11.1	SAS	1.1	✓
xRAPM	−2.1	+16.8	+18.9	SAS	8.9	✓

ARC Live †how it adds upARC Live record →

MIN	rating		min		48		adds
Jonathan Kuminga	+2.31	×	40	÷	48	=	+1.93
Jaden McDaniels	−0.58	×	39	÷	48	=	−0.47
Ayo Dosunmu	−1.42	×	38	÷	48	=	−1.12
Joan Beringer	−0.60	×	34	÷	48	=	−0.42
LaMelo Ball	+4.15	×	20	÷	48	=	+1.73
Jaylen Clark	+0.14	×	20	÷	48	=	+0.06
Terrence Shannon Jr	−2.51	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.94
Trey Lyles	−0.87	×	17	÷	48	=	−0.31
Bones Hyland	+0.14	×	14	÷	48	=	+0.04
MIN team rating (sum)			240				+0.48

SAS	rating		min		48		adds
Dylan Harper	+2.56	×	39	÷	48	=	+2.08
De'Aaron Fox	+3.22	×	35	÷	48	=	+2.35
Devin Vassell	+1.25	×	34	÷	48	=	+0.89
Victor Wembanyama	+9.98	×	34	÷	48	=	+7.07
Stephon Castle	+1.95	×	22	÷	48	=	+0.89
Julian Champagnie	+0.99	×	27	÷	48	=	+0.56
Keldon Johnson	−0.97	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.49
Luke Kornet	+1.22	×	14	÷	48	=	+0.36
Carter Bryant	−4.49	×	11	÷	48	=	−1.03
SAS team rating (sum)			240				+12.68

predicted margin = SAS − MIN = +12.68 − (+0.48) = +12.19 → pick SAS

final margin = 121 − 111 = +10 → won SAS ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (not rated by that metric).

Box score

minutes played × that morning’s ratings

MIN	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Jonathan Kuminga	40	+2.3	+0.1	0.0	+1.7	−0.3	−1.0	−0.4	−2.0	+1.8	+1.3	+1.1
Jaden McDaniels	39	−0.6	+0.8	+1.0	−0.1	+1.9	+1.3	−1.2	−0.3	+1.4	+0.5	+0.9
Ayo Dosunmu	38	−1.4	−1.3	−0.4	−1.4	−0.5	−0.5	−1.2	+1.0	−0.9	−0.2	−1.4
Joan Beringer	34	−0.6	−1.7	−0.4	−1.0	−2.5	−3.0	−0.7	+0.4	0.0	−0.8	−2.9
LaMelo Ball	20	+4.2	+4.4	+3.0	+3.2	+5.3	+5.1	+2.8	+4.7	+1.5	+2.8	+2.7
Jaylen Clark	20	+0.1	+0.1	−0.1	−0.4	−1.8	−1.8	−0.7	−2.4	−2.3	−1.1	+0.7

SAS	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Dylan Harper	39	+2.6	+0.9	+0.6	+1.5	+2.8	+3.5	+0.9	+1.4	−0.3	+1.7	+4.5
De'Aaron Fox	35	+3.2	+2.1	+2.4	+2.4	+4.7	+3.5	+1.7	+2.2	+2.2	+1.3	+3.6
Devin Vassell	34	+1.3	+0.9	+1.2	+1.6	+2.1	+1.8	−0.1	+0.5	+0.6	+0.9	+1.3
Victor Wembanyama	34	+10.0	+8.7	+6.7	+10.0	+8.7	+9.0	+7.6	+10.7	+5.9	+10.4	+10.2
Stephon Castle	22	+2.0	+0.3	+1.3	+1.2	+2.2	+3.3	+1.5	+1.9	+1.1	+1.3	+1.5
Julian Champagnie	27	+1.0	+2.3	+1.9	+1.6	+1.6	+1.4	+1.5	+1.4	−0.5	+1.2	+2.4
Keldon Johnson	24	−1.0	−1.0	−0.3	−0.4	−1.6	−1.0	+0.5	+0.9	−1.4	−0.4	−0.5
Luke Kornet	14	+1.2	+1.5	+0.6	+1.3	−0.6	+0.9	+0.9	+3.6	−2.4	+2.6	+2.5
Carter Bryant	11	−4.5	−3.2	−2.2	−5.2	−3.5	−2.7	−1.2	−3.0	−1.7	−1.5	−0.6
Team rating	240	+12.7	+9.6	+9.0	+11.7	+13.5	+14.4	+9.1	+13.1	+4.4	+11.8	+16.8