CLE @ MIL, Sat, Oct 31 (dynamic)

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·CLE @ MIL·Sat, Oct 31·11 of 11 right

ClevelandCavaliers

136◂

MilwaukeeBucks

111

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	CLE	MIL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−25	CLE
ARC Live †	+4.5	−1.6	−6.1	CLE	18.9	✓
Pulse	+3.3	−5.6	−8.9	CLE	16.1	✓
DARKO	+2.6	−3.9	−6.5	CLE	18.5	✓
LOKI †	+4.5	−2.3	−6.8	CLE	18.2	✓
EPM	−1.0	−6.6	−5.6	CLE	19.4	✓
EPM projection	+2.6	−3.1	−5.7	CLE	19.3	✓
LEBRON	+3.9	−5.0	−8.9	CLE	16.1	✓
BPM	+5.0	−3.6	−8.5	CLE	16.4	✓
OpenRAPM	−1.8	−2.6	−0.7	CLE	24.3	✓
xPM	+1.2	−3.4	−4.5	CLE	20.5	✓
xRAPM	+0.8	−5.5	−6.3	CLE	18.7	✓

ARC Live †how it adds upARC Live record →

CLE	rating		min		48		adds
James Harden	+2.45	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.33
Evan Mobley	+2.26	×	25	÷	48	=	+1.18
Jarrett Allen	+3.64	×	24	÷	48	=	+1.82
Donovan Mitchell	+5.73	×	24	÷	48	=	+2.87
Peyton Watson	−0.62	×	22	÷	48	=	−0.28
Meleek Thomas	−2.00	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.96
Mario Hezonja	−2.73	×	20	÷	48	=	−1.14
Sam Merrill	+1.17	×	19	÷	48	=	+0.46
Tyrese Proctor	−0.88	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.33
Craig Porter Jr.	−0.35	×	16	÷	48	=	−0.12
Thomas Bryant	−0.23	×	11	÷	48	=	−0.05
Tristan Enaruna	−0.80	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.10
Riley Minix	−1.47	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.18
CLE team rating (sum)			240				+4.49

MIL	rating		min		48		adds
Tyler Herro	+1.01	×	27	÷	48	=	+0.57
Ryan Rollins	+3.48	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.89
Myles Turner	+1.10	×	24	÷	48	=	+0.55
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	−0.09	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.04
Kyle Kuzma	−3.47	×	23	÷	48	=	−1.66
Kel'el Ware	+1.45	×	24	÷	48	=	+0.73
Kasparas Jakučionis	−0.68	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.30
Brayden Burries	−2.94	×	21	÷	48	=	−1.29
AJ Green	+0.34	×	20	÷	48	=	+0.14
Nate Ament	−3.31	×	19	÷	48	=	−1.31
Ousmane Dieng	−4.02	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.50
Gary Trent Jr.	−2.69	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.34
MIL team rating (sum)			240				−1.57

predicted margin = MIL − CLE = −1.57 − (+4.49) = −6.06 → pick CLE

final margin = 111 − 136 = −25 → won CLE ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (not rated by that metric).

Box score

minutes played × that morning’s ratings

CLE	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
James Harden	26	+2.5	+1.2	+2.3	+0.8	+1.6	+2.3	+2.1	+3.9	−0.5	+0.6	+0.6
Evan Mobley	25	+2.3	+1.8	+2.5	+3.2	+1.7	+2.4	+3.1	+3.0	+0.4	+2.5	+2.1
Jarrett Allen	24	+3.6	+3.8	+2.8	+5.0	+5.0	+5.1	+2.1	+2.6	+0.3	+4.7	+3.1
Donovan Mitchell	24	+5.7	+4.2	+4.2	+5.7	+3.9	+4.7	+3.4	+5.1	+2.1	+3.5	+4.0
Peyton Watson	22	−0.6	−1.6	−1.1	+0.2	−1.4	−0.5	−1.3	−1.2	+0.2	−0.4	−1.5
Meleek Thomas	23	−2.0	−1.6	−2.2	−2.0	−4.9	−2.0	−2.0

MIL	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Tyler Herro	27	+1.0	+0.6	+0.8	+1.7	+1.1	+1.5	−0.5	+2.0	+0.9	−0.3	−0.8
Ryan Rollins	26	+3.5	+0.5	+1.0	+2.6	−0.8	+0.7	−0.7	+0.2	−0.9	+1.8	+1.8
Myles Turner	24	+1.1	−0.2	+0.1	+0.1	−0.4	+0.1	+0.1	−0.9	+0.2	+1.5	−1.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	23	−0.1	−1.5	−0.4	−0.3	−1.2	−0.1	−1.5	+0.1	−0.4	0.0	−0.6
Kyle Kuzma	23	−3.5	−3.2	−3.4	−3.9	−2.7	−2.6	−2.0	−2.3	−0.8	−2.5	−4.2
Kel'el Ware	24	+1.5	−0.7	−0.7	+1.1	−1.0	0.0	+0.8	+2.1	+0.8	+1.3	−0.6
Kasparas Jakučionis	21	−0.7	−1.3	−0.4	−1.3	−1.2	−0.7	−0.8	−0.4	+0.8	−1.6	−0.6
Brayden Burries	21	−2.9	−1.3	−1.4	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−0.1	−2.1	−2.0
AJ Green	20	+0.3	+0.1	−0.1	−0.4	−1.0	−0.6	−1.1	−3.3	−2.2	−1.7	+0.6
Nate Ament	19	−3.3	−3.3	−3.1	−2.0	−3.5	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.8	−3.3	−2.0
Ousmane Dieng	6	−4.0	−4.2	−3.5	−4.0	−5.5	−4.2	−1.6	−3.8	−1.9	−2.1	−3.0
Gary Trent Jr.	6	−2.7	−4.0	−2.5	−3.0	−2.2	−2.3	−3.6	−5.4	−4.3	−3.4	−4.2
Team rating	240	−1.6	−5.6	−3.9	−2.3	−6.6	−3.1	−5.0	−3.6	−2.6	−3.4	−5.5