CLE @ MIL, Sat, Oct 31 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·CLE @ MIL·Sat, Oct 31·10 of 10 right

ClevelandCavaliers

136◂

MilwaukeeBucks

111

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	CLE	MIL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−25	CLE
LOKI †	+4.3	−2.3	−6.5	CLE	18.4	✓
BPM	+4.4	−3.6	−7.9	CLE	17.1	✓
EPM projection	+3.2	−3.1	−6.3	CLE	18.7	✓
DARKO	+3.3	−3.4	−6.6	CLE	18.4	✓
OpenRAPM	+2.4	−4.4	−6.9	CLE	18.1	✓
EPM	+2.4	−5.9	−8.3	CLE	16.7	✓
xPM	+2.4	−2.8	−5.2	CLE	19.8	✓
Pulse	+2.9	−5.2	−8.1	CLE	16.9	✓
xRAPM	+1.4	−5.5	−6.8	CLE	18.1	✓
LEBRON	+3.6	−5.0	−8.6	CLE	16.4	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

CLE	rating		min		48		adds
James Harden	+0.79	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.43
Evan Mobley	+3.23	×	25	÷	48	=	+1.68
Jarrett Allen	+5.01	×	24	÷	48	=	+2.50
Donovan Mitchell	+5.71	×	24	÷	48	=	+2.85
Peyton Watson	+0.20	×	22	÷	48	=	+0.09
Meleek Thomas	−2.00	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.96
Mario Hezonja	−2.00	×	20	÷	48	=	−0.83
Sam Merrill	−0.09	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.04
Tyrese Proctor	−1.61	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.61
Craig Porter Jr.	−0.55	×	16	÷	48	=	−0.18
Thomas Bryant	−0.82	×	11	÷	48	=	−0.19
Tristan Enaruna	−2.00	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.25
Riley Minix	−2.00	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.25
CLE team rating (sum)			240				+4.25

MIL	rating		min		48		adds
Tyler Herro	+1.72	×	27	÷	48	=	+0.97
Ryan Rollins	+2.61	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.41
Myles Turner	+0.07	×	24	÷	48	=	+0.03
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	−0.26	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.13
Kyle Kuzma	−3.89	×	23	÷	48	=	−1.87
Kel'el Ware	+1.11	×	24	÷	48	=	+0.55
Kasparas Jakučionis	−1.35	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.59
Brayden Burries	−2.00	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.87
AJ Green	−0.35	×	20	÷	48	=	−0.15
Nate Ament	−2.00	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.79
Ousmane Dieng	−4.01	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.50
Gary Trent Jr.	−2.97	×	6	÷	48	=	−0.37
MIL team rating (sum)			240				−2.30

predicted margin = MIL − CLE = −2.30 − (+4.25) = −6.55 → pick CLE

final margin = 111 − 136 = −25 → won CLE ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

CLE	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
James Harden	26	+0.8	+3.9	+2.3	+3.2	+2.5	+2.0	+0.6	+1.3	+0.6	+2.1
Evan Mobley	25	+3.2	+3.0	+2.4	+2.7	+2.5	+1.6	+2.5	+3.0	+2.1	+3.1
Jarrett Allen	24	+5.0	+2.6	+5.1	+3.0	+2.9	+5.5	+4.7	+1.4	+3.1	+2.1
Donovan Mitchell	24	+5.7	+5.1	+4.7	+4.4	+3.5	+4.1	+3.5	+4.7	+4.0	+3.4
Peyton Watson	22	+0.2	−1.2	−0.5	−1.1	+0.1	−0.8	−0.4	−0.7	−1.5	−1.3
Meleek Thomas	23	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0

MIL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Tyler Herro	27	+1.7	+2.0	+1.5	+1.1	−1.9	+0.7	−0.3	−0.4	−0.8	−0.5
Ryan Rollins	26	+2.6	+0.2	+0.7	+1.5	+1.5	−1.0	+1.8	+0.1	+1.8	−0.7
Myles Turner	24	+0.1	−0.9	+0.1	+0.2	+0.5	0.0	+1.5	+0.6	−1.7	+0.1
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	23	−0.3	+0.1	−0.1	−0.2	−1.0	−1.3	0.0	−1.0	−0.6	−1.5
Kyle Kuzma	23	−3.9	−2.3	−2.6	−3.6	−2.2	−3.0	−2.5	−1.7	−4.2	−2.0
Kel'el Ware	24	+1.1	+2.1	0.0	−1.1	+0.4	−0.9	+1.3	−0.6	−0.6	+0.8
Kasparas Jakučionis	21	−1.3	−0.4	−0.7	−0.4	0.0	−1.1	−1.6	−1.3	−0.6	−0.8
Brayden Burries	21	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
AJ Green	20	−0.4	−3.3	−0.6	0.0	−0.7	−0.6	−1.7	−1.2	+0.6	−1.1
Nate Ament	19	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Ousmane Dieng	6	−4.0	−3.8	−4.2	−3.2	−3.9	−5.2	−2.1	−3.4	−3.0	−1.6
Gary Trent Jr.	6	−3.0	−5.4	−2.3	−2.5	−4.5	−2.5	−3.4	−4.5	−4.2	−3.6
Team rating	240	−2.3	−3.6	−3.1	−3.4	−4.4	−5.9	−2.8	−5.2	−5.5	−5.0