ATL @ NOP, Sat, Oct 31 (dynamic)

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·ATL @ NOP·Sat, Oct 31·0 of 11 right

AtlantaHawks

New OrleansPelicans

121▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	ATL	NOP	pred	pick	miss
Final			+22	NOP
ARC Live †	+3.0	+1.7	−1.4	ATL	23.4	✗
Pulse	+2.5	−2.2	−4.7	ATL	26.7	✗
DARKO	+1.5	−3.1	−4.6	ATL	26.6	✗
LOKI †	+3.1	−0.2	−3.3	ATL	25.3	✗
EPM	+1.0	−6.1	−7.1	ATL	29.1	✗
EPM projection	+1.9	−2.2	−4.0	ATL	26.1	✗
LEBRON	0.0	−2.7	−2.7	ATL	24.7	✗
BPM	+0.4	−3.4	−3.8	ATL	25.9	✗
OpenRAPM	−0.7	−4.3	−3.6	ATL	25.6	✗
xPM	+1.3	+0.7	−0.6	ATL	22.6	✗
xRAPM	+0.8	−4.1	−4.8	ATL	26.8	✗

ARC Live †how it adds upARC Live record →

ATL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.18	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.31
Jalen Johnson	+2.08	×	28	÷	48.2	=	+1.21
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.98	×	28	÷	48.2	=	+1.15
Dyson Daniels	+4.50	×	27	÷	48.2	=	+2.52
CJ McCollum	+1.76	×	24	÷	48.2	=	+0.88
Luguentz Dort	−2.27	×	29	÷	48.2	=	−1.37
Kingston Flemings	−2.99	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.55
Aaron Wiggins	−0.33	×	23	÷	48.2	=	−0.16
Asa Newell	−1.87	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−0.74
Corey Kispert	−2.55	×	5	÷	48.2	=	−0.26
Dorian Finney-Smith	+0.72	×	3	÷	48.2	=	+0.04
Jock Landale	−0.35	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.01
ATL team rating (sum)			241				+3.03

NOP	rating		min		48		adds
Jeremiah Fears	−1.45	×	31	÷	48	=	−0.94
Zion Williamson	+4.58	×	30	÷	48	=	+2.86
Trey Murphy III	+1.14	×	29	÷	48	=	+0.69
Herbert Jones	+3.68	×	25	÷	48	=	+1.92
Karlo Matković	+1.10	×	18	÷	48	=	+0.41
Saddiq Bey	+0.19	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.10
Derik Queen	−1.61	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.77
Bennedict Mathurin	−1.71	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.68
Trendon Watford	−2.40	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.90
Bryce McGowens	−2.10	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.66
AJ Johnson	−3.86	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.24
Julian Reese	−2.34	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.15
NOP team rating (sum)			240				+1.66

predicted margin = NOP − ATL = +1.66 − (+3.03) = −1.37 → pick ATL

final margin = 121 − 99 = +22 → won NOP ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (not rated by that metric).

Box score

minutes played × that morning’s ratings

ATL	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	29	+2.2	+2.8	+1.6	+2.3	+3.2	+2.5	+0.2	+1.2	+1.5	+0.6	+1.9
Jalen Johnson	28	+2.1	+1.2	+1.0	+2.2	+0.3	+1.5	+1.2	+4.2	+1.2	+2.3	+0.7
Onyeka Okongwu	28	+2.0	+1.2	+1.6	+1.8	+0.9	+1.4	+0.9	+0.7	+1.0	+2.1	+0.1
Dyson Daniels	27	+4.5	+3.4	+0.9	+4.8	+3.4	+3.8	+2.3	+1.3	+2.9	+1.8	+3.7
CJ McCollum	24	+1.8	+0.5	+1.1	+0.5	+0.6	+0.5	−0.3	−0.3	−1.6	−1.4	+1.0
Luguentz Dort	29	−2.3	−0.3	−0.6	−1.9	+0.2	−0.4	−0.8	−2.0	−1.1	−0.6	−1.6

NOP	min	ARC†	Pulse	DARKO	LOKI†	EPM	EPM proj.	LEBRON	BPM	OpenRAPM	xPM	xRAPM
Jeremiah Fears	31	−1.4	−2.6	−1.3	−1.4	−2.8	−0.2	−1.5	−2.7	−1.7	−1.7	−2.8
Zion Williamson	30	+4.6	+2.0	+1.2	+3.8	+1.1	+2.3	+0.4	+2.9	+2.8	+3.5	+0.9
Trey Murphy III	29	+1.1	+0.6	+0.2	+1.6	+0.8	+1.1	+0.5	+2.4	−0.5	+1.6	−0.6
Herbert Jones	25	+3.7	+1.7	+0.6	+1.4	+0.4	+0.5	−0.3	−3.1	−1.7	+1.4	+3.2
Karlo Matković	18	+1.1	0.0	−0.1	+0.1	−2.5	−2.4	−0.7	+0.7	−0.7	+1.0	+0.5
Saddiq Bey	26	+0.2	0.0	−0.4	+0.7	−0.4	+0.2	−0.2	+0.5	−1.0	−0.9	−0.4
Derik Queen	23	−1.6	−1.8	−1.6	−2.2	−1.7	−0.7	−0.5	−0.8	−0.5	−0.8	−3.3
Bennedict Mathurin	19	−1.7	−1.4	−2.0	−1.6	−1.0	−0.7	0.0	−2.5	−0.6	−0.3	−1.1
Trendon Watford	18	−2.4	−2.0	−1.9	−2.4	−4.0	−3.9	−2.7	−1.9	−3.7	−0.3	−2.6
Bryce McGowens	15	−2.1	−1.3	−1.6	−2.2	−3.0	−2.8	−1.3	−2.9	−1.9	−2.8	−2.0
AJ Johnson	3	−3.9	−4.6	−3.2	−5.0	−8.8	−6.1	−1.2	−8.9	−5.8	−4.0	−2.7
Julian Reese	3	−2.3	−2.3	−2.6	−3.0	−5.8	−4.8	−1.9	−5.1	−2.0	−3.2	−5.0
Team rating	240	+1.7	−2.2	−3.1	−0.2	−6.1	−2.2	−2.7	−3.4	−4.3	+0.7	−4.1