ATL @ NOP, Sat, Oct 31 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 31·ATL @ NOP·Sat, Oct 31·0 of 10 right

AtlantaHawks

New OrleansPelicans

121▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	ATL	NOP	pred	pick	miss
Final			+22	NOP
LOKI †	+3.1	−0.2	−3.3	ATL	25.3	✗
BPM	+0.4	−3.4	−3.8	ATL	25.9	✗
EPM projection	+1.9	−2.2	−4.0	ATL	26.1	✗
DARKO	+2.0	−2.2	−4.2	ATL	26.3	✗
OpenRAPM	−0.4	−5.4	−5.0	ATL	27.0	✗
EPM	−0.4	−6.6	−6.2	ATL	28.3	✗
xPM	+1.9	+0.7	−1.1	ATL	23.1	✗
Pulse	+0.3	−3.9	−4.2	ATL	26.2	✗
xRAPM	+0.8	−4.1	−4.8	ATL	26.8	✗
LEBRON	0.0	−2.7	−2.7	ATL	24.7	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

ATL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.37
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	28	÷	48.2	=	+1.30
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	28	÷	48.2	=	+1.02
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	27	÷	48.2	=	+2.71
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	24	÷	48.2	=	+0.24
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	29	÷	48.2	=	−1.15
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.04
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	23	÷	48.2	=	−0.03
Asa Newell	−2.56	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−1.01
Corey Kispert	−2.49	×	5	÷	48.2	=	−0.26
Dorian Finney-Smith	−0.70	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.02
ATL team rating (sum)			241				+3.10

NOP	rating		min		48		adds
Jeremiah Fears	−1.42	×	31	÷	48	=	−0.92
Zion Williamson	+3.85	×	30	÷	48	=	+2.41
Trey Murphy III	+1.56	×	29	÷	48	=	+0.94
Herbert Jones	+1.36	×	25	÷	48	=	+0.71
Karlo Matković	+0.08	×	18	÷	48	=	+0.03
Saddiq Bey	+0.70	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.38
Derik Queen	−2.22	×	23	÷	48	=	−1.06
Bennedict Mathurin	−1.56	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.62
Trendon Watford	−2.43	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.91
Bryce McGowens	−2.17	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.68
AJ Johnson	−4.95	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.31
Julian Reese	−3.03	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.19
NOP team rating (sum)			240				−0.22

predicted margin = NOP − ATL = −0.22 − (+3.10) = −3.32 → pick ATL

final margin = 121 − 99 = +22 → won NOP ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	29	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Jalen Johnson	28	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
Onyeka Okongwu	28	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
Dyson Daniels	27	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
CJ McCollum	24	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Luguentz Dort	29	−1.9	−2.0	−0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3	−0.6	−1.1	−1.6	−0.8
Kingston Flemings	25	−2.0	−2.0

NOP	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jeremiah Fears	31	−1.4	−2.7	−0.2	−0.8	−2.7	−2.1	−1.7	−3.4	−2.8	−1.5
Zion Williamson	30	+3.8	+2.9	+2.3	+1.6	+0.2	+0.9	+3.5	+0.8	+0.9	+0.4
Trey Murphy III	29	+1.6	+2.4	+1.1	+0.5	+0.5	+0.6	+1.6	+2.5	−0.6	+0.5
Herbert Jones	25	+1.4	−3.1	+0.5	+0.2	+0.9	+0.3	+1.4	+0.5	+3.2	−0.3
Karlo Matković	18	+0.1	+0.7	−2.4	−0.2	−0.5	−2.8	+1.0	−0.3	+0.5	−0.7
Saddiq Bey	26	+0.7	+0.5	+0.2	−0.5	−1.8	−0.4	−0.9	−0.7	−0.4	−0.2
Derik Queen	23	−2.2	−0.8	−0.7	−1.4	−0.9	−2.6	−0.8	−2.2	−3.3	−0.5
Bennedict Mathurin	19	−1.6	−2.5	−0.7	−1.4	−2.0	−1.0	−0.3	−1.3	−1.1	0.0
Trendon Watford	18	−2.4	−1.9	−3.9	−1.9	−3.1	−4.4	−0.3	−2.4	−2.6	−2.7
Bryce McGowens	15	−2.2	−2.9	−2.8	−1.7	−2.0	−3.1	−2.8	−1.8	−2.0	−1.3
AJ Johnson	3	−5.0	−8.9	−6.1	−3.2	−5.6	−8.7	−4.0	−5.1	−2.7	−1.2
Julian Reese	3	−3.0	−5.1	−4.8	−2.4	−1.7	−5.7	−3.2	−2.0	−5.0	−1.9
Team rating	240	−0.2	−3.4	−2.2	−2.2	−5.4	−6.6	+0.7	−3.9	−4.1	−2.7