Papers and notes

Possessions are a scarce, finite resource, and thus player value must be derived from the cumulative margin added within and across each possession played.

Contemporary all-in-one impact metrics often regress box score actions onto RAPM to find their weights.

ARC v3 is the third and latest model of Adjusted Regularized Contribution: an expected value prior Bayesian RAPM (EV-RAPM).

Built on ARC, LOKI is a predictive model that estimates a player’s impact on both ends of the floor, accounting for aging, time decay and team context.

Current measures of scoring value combine shooting volume and efficiency but hold a third quantity fixed at league average: the price of the possessions consumed.

Instead of seeing how a player’s on-court presence adds to or subtracts from a team’s net rating over a huge sample of possessions, you see how a player’s on-court presence influences a team’s expected point value.

Shai in the best two seasons has just been an extraordinary combination of volume, efficiency, and possession economics.

xPTS are the expected point valuation of each field goal and free throw attempt compared to league average.

While extremely effective in quantifying the best players in the NBA, it cannot be copied over one-to-one to the world of collegiate basketball.