SGA 24‑26 is statistically amongst the greatest two‑year peaks of all time
Originally posted on r/nba.
Shai in the best two seasons has just been an extraordinary combination of volume, efficiency, and possession economics.
This season he averaged:
44.1 points per 100 possessions on 66.6% True Shooting (+8.4 relative TS) Just 44.3 empty possessions per 100 scoring possessions
Since 1999, among guards with 35+ possessions used per 100, that ranks:
PPP — #1 True Shooting — #2 Relative TS — #2 oShot Make — #2, behind only Curry's 2015‑16 (team conversion with him on the floor)
oTOV — #4, behind Tracy McGrady's 2002‑03 and his own 2023‑24 and 2024‑25 seasons Empty & Lost Rate — #1 (missed FG + 0.44 × missed FT + TOV per possession)
Ball security (O) — #1 cTOV% — #1 Self-creation — #2 Half-court offense — #5
Past Postseason without his co-star may cause the masses to take a bit longer to realize that we just witnessed what would be one of the best two-year guard peaks, one arguably only rivaled by Curry.
The Postseason
Now to be fair and objective, there is something to be said about his playoffs. His value does not translate to the playoffs as cleanly. He still has a ways to go to figure out or add another dimension to his game to get past the extremely aggressive defensive sets he sees.
But I will say I think his playoff drop is nowhere near the extent some would have you believe.
Among guards since 1999 with a minimum of 30 possessions used per 100 and at 10 games played, his 2026 playoff run ranks:
Points per 100 — #11 True Shooting % — #11 Relative TS — #19 PPP — #10 UW-rTS — #18 Empty & Lost — #7 oTOV — #28 Playoff ARC — #11
Among 2026 Playoff Guards
And just among other 2026 Playoff guards, he ranks:
True Shooting % — #1 PPP — #1 Usage Weighted RTS — #1 Empty & Lost Rate — #1 Points per 100 — #2 Playoff ARC — #2 oTOV — #10
He's just now really getting deep into his prime. If he were to retire tomorrow, he would still retire with one of the better two-year peaks we've seen from a guard. Curious to see if he can ease into more off-ball looks as OKC attempts to give him more creators around him and get his three-point rate up.
Glossary
- PPP
- Points Per Possession. Points scored divided by scoring possessions (FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV).
- True Shooting %
- PTS / (2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA)). Scoring efficiency across twos, threes and free throws.
- Relative TS
- True Shooting minus that season's league average True Shooting. Positive means above the era baseline.
- oShot Make
- Team shooting conversion added while the player is on the floor, priced per 100 possessions.
- oTOV
- Turnovers as a share of a player's scoring possessions. Lower is better.
- Empty & Lost Rate
- (missed FG + 0.44 × missed FT + TOV) per scoring possession. The share of possessions that end with no points.
- UW-rTS
- Usage-Weighted Relative True Shooting: usage rate × relative True Shooting.
- Playoff ARC
- ARC on playoff possessions only: box-priored regularized plus-minus blended with possession-weighted box production.
- Ball security (O)
- Impact-model ball security: turnover value prevented while on the floor, per 100 possessions.
- cTOV%
- Creation Turnover Percentage: turnovers divided by offensive load rather than shot attempts. Lower is better.
- Self-creation
- Value from unassisted scoring — offense a player generates for himself.
- Half-court offense
- Offensive impact restricted to half-court possessions, excluding transition.
- Possessions used
- Scoring possessions per 100 team possessions. How much of the offense a player finishes.
Every table here is reproducible in the LUMA Terminal Builder.