IND @ MIA, Fri, Oct 30 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 30·IND @ MIA·Fri, Oct 30·10 of 10 right

IndianaPacers

125

MiamiHeat

145▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	IND	MIA	pred	pick	miss
Final			+20	MIA
LOKI †	−4.6	+4.4	+9.1	MIA	10.9	✓
BPM	−7.4	+4.6	+12.0	MIA	8.1	✓
EPM projection	−5.5	+5.1	+10.6	MIA	9.4	✓
DARKO	−3.2	+3.3	+6.5	MIA	13.5	✓
OpenRAPM	−7.4	+2.0	+9.4	MIA	10.6	✓
EPM	−7.0	+5.5	+12.5	MIA	7.5	✓
xPM	−2.3	+2.3	+4.5	MIA	15.5	✓
Pulse	−5.2	+3.9	+9.2	MIA	10.8	✓
xRAPM	−7.9	+4.1	+12.0	MIA	8.0	✓
LEBRON	−5.4	+2.7	+8.1	MIA	11.9	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

IND	rating		min		48.2		adds
Andrew Nembhard	−0.04	×	30	÷	48.2	=	−0.02
Pascal Siakam	+2.84	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.71
Kelly Oubre Jr.	−2.34	×	22	÷	48.2	=	−1.07
Aaron Nesmith	+0.29	×	21	÷	48.2	=	+0.13
Jay Huff	−0.65	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−0.26
Jarace Walker	−3.61	×	28	÷	48.2	=	−2.10
Quenton Jackson	+0.62	×	24	÷	48.2	=	+0.31
Kobe Brown	−3.89	×	20	÷	48.2	=	−1.62
Larry Nance Jr.	−2.40	×	18	÷	48.2	=	−0.90
Jalen Slawson	−0.79	×	18	÷	48.2	=	−0.29
Braden Smith	−2.00	×	12	÷	48.2	=	−0.50
IND team rating (sum)			241				−4.60

MIA	rating		min		48.2		adds
Davion Mitchell	+1.17	×	35	÷	48.2	=	+0.85
Bam Adebayo	+3.82	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+2.62
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+8.65	×	31	÷	48.2	=	+5.56
Andrew Wiggins	−1.55	×	30	÷	48.2	=	−0.97
Klay Thompson	−3.27	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−1.76
Pelle Larsson	+0.10	×	24	÷	48.2	=	+0.05
Bobby Portis Jr.	−0.85	×	17	÷	48.2	=	−0.30
Nikola Jović	−0.93	×	16	÷	48.2	=	−0.31
Tim Hardaway Jr.	−2.79	×	12	÷	48.2	=	−0.69
Ryan Conwell	−2.00	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.29
Dru Smith	−0.64	×	4	÷	48.2	=	−0.05
Simone Fontecchio	−0.78	×	2	÷	48.2	=	−0.03
Myron Gardner	−1.74	×	2	÷	48.2	=	−0.07
Nick Richards	−3.56	×	2	÷	48.2	=	−0.15
MIA team rating (sum)			241				+4.45

predicted margin = MIA − IND = +4.45 − (−4.60) = +9.05 → pick MIA

final margin = 145 − 125 = +20 → won MIA ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

IND	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Andrew Nembhard	30	0.0	−0.8	+1.1	−0.6	−2.0	+0.5	−0.8	−0.4	−0.8	+0.2
Pascal Siakam	29	+2.8	+0.7	+2.2	+1.4	+0.6	+2.0	+1.7	+0.8	+1.9	+1.0
Kelly Oubre Jr.	22	−2.3	−1.4	−1.0	−0.3	−1.7	−1.1	−2.1	−1.9	−1.9	−2.4
Aaron Nesmith	21	+0.3	−3.4	+0.5	−0.1	−1.9	+0.5	+0.4	−1.5	+0.6	−0.9
Jay Huff	19	−0.7	+0.4	−1.8	−0.2	+0.4	−2.5	+0.6	+1.3	−1.3	−0.4
Jarace Walker	28	−3.6	−2.4	−3.3	−2.5	−3.1	−4.4	−1.2	−3.6	−4.3	−2.7
Quenton Jackson	24	+0.6	−1.8	−1.2	−0.4	−1.6	−1.0

MIA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Davion Mitchell	35	+1.2	−0.9	+1.1	+0.4	+1.4	+1.4	−1.3	+0.2	+1.8	−0.1
Bam Adebayo	33	+3.8	+2.0	+3.4	+3.4	+4.1	+4.2	+4.2	+4.3	+2.7	+3.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo	31	+8.6	+9.5	+7.9	+5.4	+4.8	+8.3	+6.4	+6.5	+5.7	+5.1
Andrew Wiggins	30	−1.6	+1.2	−0.9	−0.6	+0.3	−1.1	−0.6	+0.3	−1.7	+0.4
Klay Thompson	26	−3.3	−1.4	−1.5	−1.4	−4.3	−1.5	−2.7	−2.8	−1.0	−2.5
Pelle Larsson	24	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+0.1
Bobby Portis Jr.	17	−0.9	0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−3.3	−2.3	−1.2	−1.9	−2.4	−2.3
Nikola Jović	16	−0.9	−3.5	−2.0	−1.3	−2.3	−2.3	+0.2	−2.6	0.0	−1.5
Tim Hardaway Jr.	12	−2.8	−0.7	−1.0	−1.0	−2.5	−0.8	−3.7	−1.1	−1.7	−1.1
Ryan Conwell	7	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Dru Smith	4	−0.6	+2.2	−1.6	−0.8	+2.6	−1.6	−0.2	+0.2	+1.2	+0.5
Simone Fontecchio	2	−0.8	+0.5	−0.9	−0.1	−1.4	−0.5	−1.3	−0.4	+0.3	−0.4
Myron Gardner	2	−1.7	+0.9	−1.4	−0.7	−0.5	−1.7	−1.4	+0.6	−2.3	+0.5
Nick Richards	2	−3.6	−6.1	−2.2	−2.0	−3.2	−2.5	−3.3	−3.3	−7.8	−1.7
Team rating	241	+4.4	+4.6	+5.1	+3.3	+2.0	+5.5	+2.3	+3.9	+4.1	+2.7