HOU @ DAL, Fri, Oct 30 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 30·HOU @ DAL·Fri, Oct 30·0 of 10 right

HoustonRockets

111

DallasMavericks

116▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	HOU	DAL	pred	pick	miss
Final			+5	DAL
LOKI †	+8.0	−4.3	−12.4	HOU	17.4	✗
BPM	+1.2	−5.9	−7.1	HOU	12.1	✗
EPM projection	+6.0	−3.7	−9.7	HOU	14.7	✗
DARKO	+5.1	−6.9	−12.0	HOU	17.0	✗
OpenRAPM	+1.6	−4.2	−5.8	HOU	10.8	✗
EPM	+5.3	−6.9	−12.3	HOU	17.3	✗
xPM	+3.9	−3.1	−7.0	HOU	12.0	✗
Pulse	+4.0	−5.7	−9.8	HOU	14.8	✗
xRAPM	+6.5	−6.9	−13.4	HOU	18.4	✗
LEBRON	+2.3	−4.7	−7.0	HOU	12.0	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

HOU	rating		min		47.8		adds
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	39	÷	47.8	=	+3.81
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	37	÷	47.8	=	+2.57
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	35	÷	47.8	=	+0.27
Fred VanVleet	−2.00	×	33	÷	47.8	=	−1.38
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	30	÷	47.8	=	+1.12
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	26	÷	47.8	=	+1.05
Marcus Smart	+1.70	×	17	÷	47.8	=	+0.60
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	11	÷	47.8	=	−0.09
Oscar Tshiebwe	+0.39	×	11	÷	47.8	=	+0.09
HOU team rating (sum)			239				+8.05

DAL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Cooper Flagg	+1.67	×	39	÷	48.2	=	+1.35
Kyrie Irving	−2.00	×	35	÷	48.2	=	−1.45
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	34	÷	48.2	=	−0.14
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+0.59
Max Christie	−0.64	×	18	÷	48.2	=	−0.24
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	28	÷	48.2	=	−1.65
Caleb Martin	−2.97	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.54
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	17	÷	48.2	=	−0.71
Walter Clayton Jr.	−2.60	×	9	÷	48.2	=	−0.49
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
DAL team rating (sum)			241				−4.32

predicted margin = DAL − HOU = −4.32 − (+8.05) = −12.37 → pick HOU

final margin = 116 − 111 = +5 → won DAL ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Amen Thompson	39	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Kevin Durant	37	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Jabari Smith Jr.	35	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Fred VanVleet	33	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Clint Capela	30	+1.8	+0.4	+0.8	+1.2	+0.7	+1.3	+0.9	+1.3	+1.4	−0.3
Tari Eason	26

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Cooper Flagg	39	+1.7	+1.4	+2.2	−0.3	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+0.6	+0.4	−0.2
Kyrie Irving	35	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
P.J. Washington	34	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Daniel Gafford	29	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Max Christie	18	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
Zaccharie Risacher	28	−2.8	−2.5	−2.0	−2.0	−1.4	−2.8	−1.2	−2.2	−2.3	−0.4
Caleb Martin	25	−3.0	−2.2	−2.8	−2.4	−0.8	−3.1	−1.3	−1.6	−2.6	−1.4
Morez Johnson Jr.	17	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Walter Clayton Jr.	9	−2.6	−4.3	−2.5	−2.3	−3.2	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1	−2.9	−2.7
Marcus Sasser	7	−0.3	−1.7	−1.4	−0.3	−2.0	−1.8	−0.3	−1.5	+0.1	−2.1
Team rating	241	−4.3	−5.9	−3.7	−6.9	−4.2	−6.9	−3.1	−5.7	−6.9	−4.7