DEN @ PHX, Fri, Oct 30 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 30·DEN @ PHX·Fri, Oct 30·10 of 10 right

DenverNuggets

127◂

PhoenixSuns

120

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DEN	PHX	pred	pick	miss
Final			−7	DEN
LOKI †	+11.9	+4.8	−7.0	DEN	0.0	✓
BPM	+12.6	+2.3	−10.3	DEN	3.3	✓
EPM projection	+11.3	+4.0	−7.2	DEN	0.3	✓
DARKO	+8.3	+3.2	−5.1	DEN	1.9	✓
OpenRAPM	+5.1	+1.5	−3.6	DEN	3.4	✓
EPM	+10.3	+3.3	−6.9	DEN	0.0	✓
xPM	+7.4	+2.2	−5.2	DEN	1.8	✓
Pulse	+7.9	+2.3	−5.6	DEN	1.4	✓
xRAPM	+8.6	+3.5	−5.0	DEN	2.0	✓
LEBRON	+5.7	+3.8	−1.8	DEN	5.2	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DEN	rating		min		47.8		adds
Nikola Jokić	+11.38	×	37	÷	47.8	=	+8.81
Christian Braun	+0.44	×	37	÷	47.8	=	+0.34
Jamal Murray	+3.02	×	37	÷	47.8	=	+2.34
Cameron Johnson	+0.94	×	34	÷	47.8	=	+0.67
Aaron Gordon	+1.58	×	29	÷	47.8	=	+0.96
DeMar DeRozan	−0.78	×	24	÷	47.8	=	−0.39
Trevon Brazile	−2.00	×	19	÷	47.8	=	−0.79
Tyus Jones	−1.02	×	11	÷	47.8	=	−0.23
Marvin Bagley III	+0.68	×	11	÷	47.8	=	+0.16
DEN team rating (sum)			239				+11.85

PHX	rating		min		48		adds
Devin Booker	+3.91	×	39	÷	48	=	+3.18
Miles Bridges	+1.15	×	37	÷	48	=	+0.89
Jalen Green	−0.09	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.05
Dillon Brooks	−1.00	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.44
Khaman Maluach	−3.05	×	17	÷	48	=	−1.08
Collin Gillespie	+2.66	×	33	÷	48	=	+1.83
Jordan Goodwin	+0.72	×	25	÷	48	=	+0.38
Oso Ighodaro	+0.94	×	21	÷	48	=	+0.41
Luke Kennard	−0.18	×	12	÷	48	=	−0.04
Ryan Dunn	−1.01	×	11	÷	48	=	−0.23
PHX team rating (sum)			240				+4.85

predicted margin = PHX − DEN = +4.85 − (+11.85) = −7.00 → pick DEN

final margin = 120 − 127 = −7 → won DEN ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DEN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Nikola Jokić	37	+11.4	+14.2	+9.4	+7.1	+7.3	+8.4	+8.7	+8.9	+8.1	+7.4
Christian Braun	37	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5	+0.6	−0.4	+0.3	+0.9	−0.2	+0.8	−0.3
Jamal Murray	37	+3.0	+4.1	+3.8	+3.5	+2.4	+2.9	+1.3	+2.3	+0.9	+1.4
Cameron Johnson	34	+0.9	−0.6	+1.6	+0.3	−0.3	+1.8	+0.8	+0.4	+1.9	+0.6
Aaron Gordon	29	+1.6	+1.7	+1.5	+3.0	−0.4	+2.1	+1.6	+2.0	+3.7	+0.6
DeMar DeRozan	24	−0.8	−0.1	+0.4	−1.9	+0.1	+0.5	−2.6	−1.1	−2.0	−1.2
Trevon Brazile	19	−2.0	−2.0

PHX	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Devin Booker	39	+3.9	+2.2	+4.0	+2.2	+1.5	+3.7	+1.8	+2.8	+2.8	+2.5
Miles Bridges	37	+1.2	+1.1	+0.5	+0.5	+0.1	0.0	+0.2	+0.1	−1.7	+0.8
Jalen Green	24	−0.1	−1.1	+0.1	+0.3	−1.3	−0.4	−0.1	−1.9	+0.1	−0.4
Dillon Brooks	21	−1.0	−2.3	+0.5	−0.3	−1.8	+0.7	−1.0	−1.0	+0.2	−0.1
Khaman Maluach	17	−3.1	−3.7	−3.3	−1.9	−2.1	−4.1	−1.4	−2.7	−2.8	−0.6
Collin Gillespie	33	+2.7	+2.5	+1.2	+1.7	+1.0	+1.8	+0.9	+2.3	+2.6	+1.9
Jordan Goodwin	25	+0.7	+1.8	+0.8	+0.6	+2.2	+1.0	+0.5	+1.3	+2.4	+1.9
Oso Ighodaro	21	+0.9	+0.1	+1.3	+0.9	+2.3	+1.2	+1.9	+0.7	+0.6	+0.2
Luke Kennard	12	−0.2	+0.1	−1.2	−0.4	−1.4	−1.3	−0.4	−0.8	−0.1	−2.9
Ryan Dunn	11	−1.0	−0.9	−1.0	−0.2	0.0	−1.5	−0.5	0.0	+0.7	−0.1
Team rating	240	+4.8	+2.3	+4.0	+3.2	+1.5	+3.3	+2.2	+2.3	+3.5	+3.8