SAS @ UTA, Wed, Oct 28 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 28·SAS @ UTA·Wed, Oct 28·10 of 10 right

San AntonioSpurs

117◂

UtahJazz

111

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	SAS	UTA	pred	pick	miss
Final			−6	SAS
LOKI †	+12.9	−6.9	−19.7	SAS	13.7	✓
BPM	+14.1	−6.8	−21.0	SAS	15.0	✓
EPM projection	+15.7	−6.3	−22.0	SAS	16.0	✓
DARKO	+9.4	−6.1	−15.5	SAS	9.5	✓
OpenRAPM	+13.4	−6.0	−19.3	SAS	13.3	✓
EPM	+13.9	−8.7	−22.5	SAS	16.5	✓
xPM	+12.4	−5.6	−18.0	SAS	12.0	✓
Pulse	+9.9	−7.4	−17.4	SAS	11.4	✓
xRAPM	+17.2	−9.8	−26.9	SAS	20.9	✓
LEBRON	+9.8	−6.5	−16.2	SAS	10.3	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

SAS	rating		min		52.8		adds
Victor Wembanyama	+10.01	×	39	÷	52.8	=	+7.39
De'Aaron Fox	+2.44	×	39	÷	52.8	=	+1.80
Stephon Castle	+1.18	×	38	÷	52.8	=	+0.85
Devin Vassell	+1.61	×	38	÷	52.8	=	+1.16
Dylan Harper	+1.55	×	37	÷	52.8	=	+1.08
Julian Champagnie	+1.58	×	31	÷	52.8	=	+0.93
Keldon Johnson	−0.41	×	23	÷	52.8	=	−0.18
Luke Kornet	+1.25	×	14	÷	52.8	=	+0.33
Carter Bryant	−5.19	×	5	÷	52.8	=	−0.49
SAS team rating (sum)			264				+12.87

UTA	rating		min		53		adds
Ace Bailey	−3.56	×	40	÷	53	=	−2.68
Jaxson Hayes	−0.62	×	37	÷	53	=	−0.43
Keyonte George	−0.65	×	37	÷	53	=	−0.46
Darryn Peterson	−2.00	×	26	÷	53	=	−0.98
Josh Green	−0.87	×	24	÷	53	=	−0.39
Josh Okogie	+0.30	×	28	÷	53	=	+0.16
Isaiah Collier	−2.99	×	24	÷	53	=	−1.35
Brice Sensabaugh	−1.05	×	18	÷	53	=	−0.36
Mo Bamba	−2.00	×	16	÷	53	=	−0.60
Svi Mykhailiuk	+0.82	×	15	÷	53	=	+0.23
UTA team rating (sum)			265				−6.87

predicted margin = UTA − SAS = −6.87 − (+12.87) = −19.74 → pick SAS

final margin = 111 − 117 = −6 → won SAS ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

SAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Victor Wembanyama	39	+10.0	+10.7	+9.0	+6.2	+8.8	+8.8	+10.4	+8.9	+10.2	+7.6
De'Aaron Fox	39	+2.4	+2.2	+3.5	+2.4	+1.8	+3.4	+1.3	+2.4	+3.6	+1.7
Stephon Castle	38	+1.2	+1.9	+3.3	+1.4	+2.3	+1.8	+1.3	+1.2	+1.5	+1.5
Devin Vassell	38	+1.6	+0.5	+1.8	+1.5	+1.6	+1.9	+0.9	+0.4	+1.3	−0.1
Dylan Harper	37	+1.5	+1.4	+3.5	+0.5	+1.2	+2.8	+1.7	−0.6	+4.5	+0.9
Julian Champagnie	31	+1.6	+1.4	+1.4	+1.5	+3.0	+1.8	+1.2	+1.1	+2.4	+1.5
Keldon Johnson	23	−0.4	+0.9	−1.0	−0.5	−0.3

UTA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Ace Bailey	40	−3.6	−4.4	−2.1	−2.6	−3.2	−3.6	−2.3	−4.1	−3.4	−2.5
Jaxson Hayes	37	−0.6	+1.2	−1.0	0.0	+0.2	−0.6	+1.2	+0.8	−0.5	+0.3
Keyonte George	37	−0.7	+0.9	+1.3	−1.8	−0.3	−0.2	−1.5	−1.0	−3.4	−0.6
Darryn Peterson	26	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Josh Green	24	−0.9	−0.7	−1.2	+0.2	+0.7	−0.7	−1.2	−0.1	+0.6	−1.0
Josh Okogie	28	+0.3	−1.2	−0.8	+0.4	+1.1	−0.3	−0.1	0.0	0.0	−0.4
Isaiah Collier	24	−3.0	−2.4	−3.2	−2.8	−2.3	−4.4	−2.0	−3.3	−5.3	−2.3
Brice Sensabaugh	18	−1.1	−2.6	−1.4	−0.7	−3.8	−2.5	−0.6	−2.4	−2.5	−1.9
Mo Bamba	16	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Svi Mykhailiuk	15	+0.8	−1.7	−1.8	−0.4	−1.4	−1.7	−1.1	−0.9	+0.2	−1.8
Team rating	265	−6.9	−6.8	−6.3	−6.1	−6.0	−8.7	−5.6	−7.4	−9.8	−6.5