OKC @ DAL, Wed, Oct 28 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 28·OKC @ DAL·Wed, Oct 28·0 of 10 right

Oklahoma CityThunder

DallasMavericks

120▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	OKC	DAL	pred	pick	miss
Final			+24	DAL
LOKI †	+5.1	−4.5	−9.6	OKC	33.6	✗
BPM	+5.5	−6.7	−12.2	OKC	36.2	✗
EPM projection	+3.5	−4.3	−7.8	OKC	31.8	✗
DARKO	+1.6	−6.6	−8.2	OKC	32.2	✗
OpenRAPM	+1.3	−5.2	−6.5	OKC	30.5	✗
EPM	+2.7	−7.6	−10.3	OKC	34.3	✗
xPM	+3.0	−3.4	−6.4	OKC	30.4	✗
Pulse	+0.6	−6.4	−7.0	OKC	31.0	✗
xRAPM	+6.5	−6.6	−13.1	OKC	37.1	✗
LEBRON	+1.8	−5.4	−7.1	OKC	31.1	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

OKC	rating		min		48		adds
Jared McCain	−0.99	×	29	÷	48	=	−0.60
Ajay Mitchell	+2.07	×	28	÷	48	=	+1.21
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+12.67	×	28	÷	48	=	+7.39
Isaiah Hartenstein	+3.01	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.63
Kenrich Williams	+0.45	×	17	÷	48	=	+0.16
Bennett Stirtz	−2.00	×	28	÷	48	=	−1.17
Josh Dix	−2.00	×	24	÷	48	=	−1.00
Aday Mara	−2.00	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.87
Jaylin Williams	+0.73	×	20	÷	48	=	+0.31
Brooks Barnhizer	−5.86	×	14	÷	48	=	−1.71
Micah Peavy	−2.63	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.27
OKC team rating (sum)			240				+5.07

DAL	rating		min		48.6		adds
Cooper Flagg	+1.67	×	33	÷	48.6	=	+1.13
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	27	÷	48.6	=	−0.11
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	27	÷	48.6	=	+0.54
Kyrie Irving	−2.00	×	27	÷	48.6	=	−1.11
Max Christie	−0.64	×	22	÷	48.6	=	−0.29
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	29	÷	48.6	=	−1.70
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	22	÷	48.6	=	−0.12
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	18	÷	48.6	=	−0.74
Walter Clayton Jr.	−2.60	×	15	÷	48.6	=	−0.80
Caleb Martin	−2.97	×	14	÷	48.6	=	−0.86
Moussa Cisse	−0.94	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.06
Jett Howard	−4.45	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.27
Tobi Lawal	−2.00	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.12
DAL team rating (sum)			243				−4.51

predicted margin = DAL − OKC = −4.51 − (+5.07) = −9.58 → pick OKC

final margin = 120 − 96 = +24 → won DAL ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

OKC	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jared McCain	29	−1.0	−2.4	−1.8	−1.5	−3.2	−2.9	−1.4	−2.9	+0.1	−2.7
Ajay Mitchell	28	+2.1	+1.9	+3.2	+1.3	+2.5	+3.2	+1.8	+2.3	+4.6	+2.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	28	+12.7	+11.7	+10.0	+6.0	+6.9	+8.9	+6.4	+5.8	+9.3	+6.7
Isaiah Hartenstein	26	+3.0	+4.2	+3.3	+3.1	+3.5	+4.3	+4.2	+3.3	+3.3	+3.6
Kenrich Williams	17	+0.5	+0.2	−1.0	+0.3	−1.4	−0.6	+0.2	−1.0	−0.7	−0.8
Bennett Stirtz	28	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Cooper Flagg	33	+1.7	+1.4	+2.2	−0.3	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+0.6	+0.4	−0.2
P.J. Washington	27	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Daniel Gafford	27	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Kyrie Irving	27	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Max Christie	22	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
Zaccharie Risacher	29	−2.8	−2.5	−2.0	−2.0	−1.4	−2.8	−1.2	−2.2	−2.3	−0.4
Marcus Sasser	22	−0.3	−1.7	−1.4	−0.3	−2.0	−1.8	−0.3	−1.5	+0.1	−2.1
Morez Johnson Jr.	18	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Walter Clayton Jr.	15	−2.6	−4.3	−2.5	−2.3	−3.2	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1	−2.9	−2.7
Caleb Martin	14	−3.0	−2.2	−2.8	−2.4	−0.8	−3.1	−1.3	−1.6	−2.6	−1.4
Moussa Cisse	3	−0.9	−2.9	−1.1	−0.5	+0.8	−1.7	−1.0	−1.4	−1.9	+0.1
Jett Howard	3	−4.4	−1.8	−4.1	−2.1	−3.4	−4.9	−2.5	−2.9	−1.4	−1.6
Tobi Lawal	3	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	243	−4.5	−6.7	−4.3	−6.6	−5.2	−7.6	−3.4	−6.4	−6.6	−5.4