MIA @ ATL, Wed, Oct 28 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 28·MIA @ ATL·Wed, Oct 28·9 of 10 right

MiamiHeat

129◂

AtlantaHawks

117

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	MIA	ATL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−12	MIA
LOKI †	+5.0	+4.9	−0.1	MIA	11.9	✓
BPM	+6.1	+2.4	−3.7	MIA	8.3	✓
EPM projection	+5.6	+3.7	−2.0	MIA	10.0	✓
DARKO	+3.7	+2.5	−1.1	MIA	10.8	✓
OpenRAPM	+3.3	+1.1	−2.3	MIA	9.7	✓
EPM	+6.0	+1.5	−4.5	MIA	7.5	✓
xPM	+2.3	+3.1	+0.8	ATL	12.8	✗
Pulse	+5.0	+2.0	−2.9	MIA	9.1	✓
xRAPM	+4.7	+1.6	−3.1	MIA	8.9	✓
LEBRON	+3.4	+1.1	−2.3	MIA	9.7	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

MIA	rating		min		48.2		adds
Davion Mitchell	+1.17	×	34	÷	48.2	=	+0.83
Bam Adebayo	+3.82	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+2.62
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+8.65	×	31	÷	48.2	=	+5.56
Andrew Wiggins	−1.55	×	29	÷	48.2	=	−0.93
Klay Thompson	−3.27	×	17	÷	48.2	=	−1.15
Pelle Larsson	+0.10	×	31	÷	48.2	=	+0.06
Bobby Portis Jr.	−0.85	×	23	÷	48.2	=	−0.41
Tim Hardaway Jr.	−2.79	×	22	÷	48.2	=	−1.27
Dru Smith	−0.64	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.19
Nikola Jović	−0.93	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.14
MIA team rating (sum)			241				+4.98

ATL	rating		min		48		adds
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	36	÷	48	=	+1.67
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	32	÷	48	=	+1.52
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	31	÷	48	=	+1.14
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	28	÷	48	=	+2.83
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	20	÷	48	=	+0.20
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	28	÷	48	=	−1.17
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.96
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.03
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	17	÷	48	=	−0.34
ATL team rating (sum)			240				+4.87

predicted margin = ATL − MIA = +4.87 − (+4.98) = −0.11 → pick MIA

final margin = 117 − 129 = −12 → won MIA ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

MIA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Davion Mitchell	34	+1.2	−0.9	+1.1	+0.4	+1.4	+1.4	−1.3	+0.2	+1.8	−0.1
Bam Adebayo	33	+3.8	+2.0	+3.4	+3.4	+4.1	+4.2	+4.2	+4.3	+2.7	+3.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo	31	+8.6	+9.5	+7.9	+5.4	+4.8	+8.3	+6.4	+6.5	+5.7	+5.1
Andrew Wiggins	29	−1.6	+1.2	−0.9	−0.6	+0.3	−1.1	−0.6	+0.3	−1.7	+0.4
Klay Thompson	17	−3.3	−1.4	−1.5	−1.4	−4.3	−1.5	−2.7	−2.8	−1.0	−2.5
Pelle Larsson	31	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+0.1
Bobby Portis Jr.	23	−0.9	0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−3.3	−2.3

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jalen Johnson	36	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	32	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Onyeka Okongwu	31	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
Dyson Daniels	28	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
CJ McCollum	20	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Kingston Flemings	28	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Luguentz Dort	24	−1.9	−2.0	−0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3	−0.6	−1.1	−1.6	−0.8
Aaron Wiggins	24	−0.1	−0.9	−1.7	+0.6	−1.4	−2.7	+0.9	−1.0	+0.1	−0.3
Jock Landale	17	−0.9	−0.1	−0.8	−0.8	−0.6	−0.7	+0.5	+0.2	−2.5	0.0
Team rating	240	+4.9	+2.4	+3.7	+2.5	+1.1	+1.5	+3.1	+2.0	+1.6	+1.1