HOU @ MIL, Wed, Oct 28 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 28·HOU @ MIL·Wed, Oct 28·10 of 10 right

HoustonRockets

132◂

MilwaukeeBucks

100

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	HOU	MIL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−32	HOU
LOKI †	+5.3	−3.7	−9.1	HOU	22.9	✓
BPM	+1.3	−5.1	−6.5	HOU	25.5	✓
EPM projection	+3.6	−4.0	−7.6	HOU	24.4	✓
DARKO	+4.0	−3.9	−7.9	HOU	24.1	✓
OpenRAPM	−0.3	−5.5	−5.2	HOU	26.8	✓
EPM	+2.0	−6.6	−8.5	HOU	23.4	✓
xPM	+3.1	−3.9	−7.0	HOU	25.0	✓
Pulse	+1.1	−6.1	−7.3	HOU	24.7	✓
xRAPM	+3.8	−6.5	−10.3	HOU	21.7	✓
LEBRON	+0.1	−5.9	−5.9	HOU	26.1	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

HOU	rating		min		48		adds
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	33	÷	48	=	+3.21
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	31	÷	48	=	+2.14
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	31	÷	48	=	+1.25
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	30	÷	48	=	+0.23
Fred VanVleet	−2.00	×	29	÷	48	=	−1.21
Reed Sheppard	−1.20	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.57
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	22	÷	48	=	+0.82
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.12
Oscar Tshiebwe	+0.39	×	14	÷	48	=	+0.11
Isaiah Crawford	−2.00	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.21
Jae'Sean Tate	−2.22	×	4	÷	48	=	−0.19
Bruce Thornton	−2.00	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.12
HOU team rating (sum)			240				+5.34

MIL	rating		min		47.6		adds
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	−0.26	×	27	÷	47.6	=	−0.15
Tyler Herro	+1.72	×	27	÷	47.6	=	+0.97
Myles Turner	+0.07	×	22	÷	47.6	=	+0.03
Kyle Kuzma	−3.89	×	18	÷	47.6	=	−1.47
Ryan Rollins	+2.61	×	17	÷	47.6	=	+0.93
AJ Green	−0.35	×	24	÷	47.6	=	−0.18
Nate Ament	−2.00	×	20	÷	47.6	=	−0.84
Kasparas Jakučionis	−1.35	×	19	÷	47.6	=	−0.54
Brayden Burries	−2.00	×	17	÷	47.6	=	−0.71
Kel'el Ware	+1.11	×	16	÷	47.6	=	+0.37
Ousmane Dieng	−4.01	×	13	÷	47.6	=	−1.09
Gary Trent Jr.	−2.97	×	7	÷	47.6	=	−0.44
Jericho Sims	−3.22	×	6	÷	47.6	=	−0.41
Bogoljub Marković	−2.00	×	5	÷	47.6	=	−0.21
MIL team rating (sum)			238				−3.73

predicted margin = MIL − HOU = −3.73 − (+5.34) = −9.07 → pick HOU

final margin = 100 − 132 = −32 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Amen Thompson	33	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Kevin Durant	31	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Tari Eason	31	+1.9	−1.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	−0.8	+1.7	−0.7	+1.8	+0.1
Jabari Smith Jr.	30	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Fred VanVleet	29	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Reed Sheppard	23

MIL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	27	−0.3	+0.1	−0.1	−0.2	−1.0	−1.3	0.0	−1.0	−0.6	−1.5
Tyler Herro	27	+1.7	+2.0	+1.5	+1.1	−1.9	+0.7	−0.3	−0.4	−0.8	−0.5
Myles Turner	22	+0.1	−0.9	+0.1	+0.2	+0.5	0.0	+1.5	+0.6	−1.7	+0.1
Kyle Kuzma	18	−3.9	−2.3	−2.6	−3.6	−2.2	−3.0	−2.5	−1.7	−4.2	−2.0
Ryan Rollins	17	+2.6	+0.2	+0.7	+1.5	+1.5	−1.0	+1.8	+0.1	+1.8	−0.7
AJ Green	24	−0.4	−3.3	−0.6	0.0	−0.7	−0.6	−1.7	−1.2	+0.6	−1.1
Nate Ament	20	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Kasparas Jakučionis	19	−1.3	−0.4	−0.7	−0.4	0.0	−1.1	−1.6	−1.3	−0.6	−0.8
Brayden Burries	17	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Kel'el Ware	16	+1.1	+2.1	0.0	−1.1	+0.4	−0.9	+1.3	−0.6	−0.6	+0.8
Ousmane Dieng	13	−4.0	−3.8	−4.2	−3.2	−3.9	−5.2	−2.1	−3.4	−3.0	−1.6
Gary Trent Jr.	7	−3.0	−5.4	−2.3	−2.5	−4.5	−2.5	−3.4	−4.5	−4.2	−3.6
Jericho Sims	6	−3.2	−3.1	−2.2	−1.7	−0.4	−2.2	−1.6	−2.7	−5.1	−3.5
Bogoljub Marković	5	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	238	−3.7	−5.1	−4.0	−3.9	−5.5	−6.6	−3.9	−6.1	−6.5	−5.9