DEN @ NOP, Wed, Oct 28 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 28·DEN @ NOP·Wed, Oct 28·10 of 10 right

DenverNuggets

104◂

New OrleansPelicans

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DEN	NOP	pred	pick	miss
Final			−13	DEN
LOKI †	+9.5	+1.7	−7.8	DEN	5.2	✓
BPM	+11.3	−0.1	−11.4	DEN	1.6	✓
EPM projection	+8.3	+0.1	−8.2	DEN	4.8	✓
DARKO	+6.3	−1.0	−7.3	DEN	5.7	✓
OpenRAPM	+3.7	−3.6	−7.3	DEN	5.7	✓
EPM	+7.3	−3.9	−11.2	DEN	1.8	✓
xPM	+5.0	+1.9	−3.1	DEN	9.9	✓
Pulse	+6.0	−1.7	−7.7	DEN	5.3	✓
xRAPM	+5.5	−4.6	−10.1	DEN	2.9	✓
LEBRON	+3.6	−0.7	−4.4	DEN	8.6	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DEN	rating		min		48.2		adds
Jamal Murray	+3.02	×	38	÷	48.2	=	+2.38
Christian Braun	+0.44	×	36	÷	48.2	=	+0.33
Nikola Jokić	+11.38	×	34	÷	48.2	=	+8.03
Trevon Brazile	−2.00	×	32	÷	48.2	=	−1.33
Aaron Gordon	+1.58	×	31	÷	48.2	=	+1.02
DeMar DeRozan	−0.78	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−0.42
Marvin Bagley III	+0.68	×	19	÷	48.2	=	+0.27
Bryce Hopkins	−2.00	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.58
Tyus Jones	−1.02	×	11	÷	48.2	=	−0.23
DEN team rating (sum)			241				+9.46

NOP	rating		min		48.2		adds
Zion Williamson	+3.85	×	32	÷	48.2	=	+2.56
Trey Murphy III	+1.56	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+0.97
Dejounte Murray	+0.50	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+0.31
Jeremiah Fears	−1.42	×	24	÷	48.2	=	−0.71
DeAndre Jordan	−2.00	×	13	÷	48.2	=	−0.54
Saddiq Bey	+0.70	×	26	÷	48.2	=	+0.38
Derik Queen	−2.22	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.15
Herbert Jones	+1.36	×	19	÷	48.2	=	+0.54
Karlo Matković	+0.08	×	18	÷	48.2	=	+0.03
Bennedict Mathurin	−1.56	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.45
Jordan Poole	−0.89	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.13
Bryce McGowens	−2.17	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.13
NOP team rating (sum)			241				+1.66

predicted margin = NOP − DEN = +1.66 − (+9.46) = −7.80 → pick DEN

final margin = 91 − 104 = −13 → won DEN ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DEN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jamal Murray	38	+3.0	+4.1	+3.8	+3.5	+2.4	+2.9	+1.3	+2.3	+0.9	+1.4
Christian Braun	36	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5	+0.6	−0.4	+0.3	+0.9	−0.2	+0.8	−0.3
Nikola Jokić	34	+11.4	+14.2	+9.4	+7.1	+7.3	+8.4	+8.7	+8.9	+8.1	+7.4
Trevon Brazile	32	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Aaron Gordon	31	+1.6	+1.7	+1.5	+3.0	−0.4	+2.1	+1.6	+2.0	+3.7	+0.6
DeMar DeRozan	26

NOP	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Zion Williamson	32	+3.8	+2.9	+2.3	+1.6	+0.2	+0.9	+3.5	+0.8	+0.9	+0.4
Trey Murphy III	30	+1.6	+2.4	+1.1	+0.5	+0.5	+0.6	+1.6	+2.5	−0.6	+0.5
Dejounte Murray	30	+0.5	+1.4	+0.3	+0.6	+0.6	0.0	+0.3	+1.0	−2.5	+1.6
Jeremiah Fears	24	−1.4	−2.7	−0.2	−0.8	−2.7	−2.1	−1.7	−3.4	−2.8	−1.5
DeAndre Jordan	13	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Saddiq Bey	26	+0.7	+0.5	+0.2	−0.5	−1.8	−0.4	−0.9	−0.7	−0.4	−0.2
Derik Queen	25	−2.2	−0.8	−0.7	−1.4	−0.9	−2.6	−0.8	−2.2	−3.3	−0.5
Herbert Jones	19	+1.4	−3.1	+0.5	+0.2	+0.9	+0.3	+1.4	+0.5	+3.2	−0.3
Karlo Matković	18	+0.1	+0.7	−2.4	−0.2	−0.5	−2.8	+1.0	−0.3	+0.5	−0.7
Bennedict Mathurin	14	−1.6	−2.5	−0.7	−1.4	−2.0	−1.0	−0.3	−1.3	−1.1	0.0
Jordan Poole	7	−0.9	−3.5	−2.3	−2.4	−4.2	−2.8	+0.4	−2.2	−2.9	−1.7
Bryce McGowens	3	−2.2	−2.9	−2.8	−1.7	−2.0	−3.1	−2.8	−1.8	−2.0	−1.3
Team rating	241	+1.7	−0.1	+0.1	−1.0	−3.6	−3.9	+1.9	−1.7	−4.6	−0.7