IND @ MIL, Mon, Oct 26 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 26·IND @ MIL·Mon, Oct 26·7 of 10 right

IndianaPacers

102

MilwaukeeBucks

110▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	IND	MIL	pred	pick	miss
Final			+8	MIL
LOKI †	−2.7	−1.4	+1.3	MIL	6.7	✓
BPM	−5.3	−2.6	+2.7	MIL	5.3	✓
EPM projection	−4.5	−2.2	+2.3	MIL	5.7	✓
DARKO	−3.2	−2.4	+0.7	MIL	7.3	✓
OpenRAPM	−6.7	−3.6	+3.1	MIL	4.9	✓
EPM	−5.2	−5.2	−0.1	IND	8.1	✗
xPM	−0.9	−2.0	−1.1	IND	9.1	✗
Pulse	−4.1	−4.2	−0.1	IND	8.1	✗
xRAPM	−4.9	−4.9	+0.1	MIL	7.9	✓
LEBRON	−4.9	−4.6	+0.4	MIL	7.7	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

IND	rating		min		48		adds
Pascal Siakam	+2.84	×	37	÷	48	=	+2.19
Tyrese Haliburton	−2.00	×	35	÷	48	=	−1.46
Jay Huff	−0.65	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.31
Kelly Oubre Jr.	−2.34	×	23	÷	48	=	−1.12
Aaron Nesmith	+0.29	×	21	÷	48	=	+0.13
Jarace Walker	−3.61	×	29	÷	48	=	−2.18
Quenton Jackson	+0.62	×	27	÷	48	=	+0.35
Obi Toppin	+1.55	×	23	÷	48	=	+0.74
Larry Nance Jr.	−2.40	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.95
Jalen Slawson	−0.79	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.05
IND team rating (sum)			240				−2.66

MIL	rating		min		47.8		adds
Tyler Herro	+1.72	×	32	÷	47.8	=	+1.15
Ryan Rollins	+2.61	×	32	÷	47.8	=	+1.75
Kyle Kuzma	−3.89	×	29	÷	47.8	=	−2.36
Myles Turner	+0.07	×	28	÷	47.8	=	+0.04
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	−0.26	×	25	÷	47.8	=	−0.14
Kasparas Jakučionis	−1.35	×	21	÷	47.8	=	−0.59
AJ Green	−0.35	×	20	÷	47.8	=	−0.15
Kel'el Ware	+1.11	×	19	÷	47.8	=	+0.44
Brayden Burries	−2.00	×	16	÷	47.8	=	−0.67
Nate Ament	−2.00	×	14	÷	47.8	=	−0.59
Ousmane Dieng	−4.01	×	3	÷	47.8	=	−0.25
MIL team rating (sum)			239				−1.37

predicted margin = MIL − IND = −1.37 − (−2.66) = +1.29 → pick MIL

final margin = 110 − 102 = +8 → won MIL ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

IND	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Pascal Siakam	37	+2.8	+0.7	+2.2	+1.4	+0.6	+2.0	+1.7	+0.8	+1.9	+1.0
Tyrese Haliburton	35	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Jay Huff	23	−0.7	+0.4	−1.8	−0.2	+0.4	−2.5	+0.6	+1.3	−1.3	−0.4
Kelly Oubre Jr.	23	−2.3	−1.4	−1.0	−0.3	−1.7	−1.1	−2.1	−1.9	−1.9	−2.4
Aaron Nesmith	21	+0.3	−3.4	+0.5	−0.1	−1.9	+0.5	+0.4	−1.5	+0.6	−0.9
Jarace Walker	29

MIL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Tyler Herro	32	+1.7	+2.0	+1.5	+1.1	−1.9	+0.7	−0.3	−0.4	−0.8	−0.5
Ryan Rollins	32	+2.6	+0.2	+0.7	+1.5	+1.5	−1.0	+1.8	+0.1	+1.8	−0.7
Kyle Kuzma	29	−3.9	−2.3	−2.6	−3.6	−2.2	−3.0	−2.5	−1.7	−4.2	−2.0
Myles Turner	28	+0.1	−0.9	+0.1	+0.2	+0.5	0.0	+1.5	+0.6	−1.7	+0.1
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	25	−0.3	+0.1	−0.1	−0.2	−1.0	−1.3	0.0	−1.0	−0.6	−1.5
Kasparas Jakučionis	21	−1.3	−0.4	−0.7	−0.4	0.0	−1.1	−1.6	−1.3	−0.6	−0.8
AJ Green	20	−0.4	−3.3	−0.6	0.0	−0.7	−0.6	−1.7	−1.2	+0.6	−1.1
Kel'el Ware	19	+1.1	+2.1	0.0	−1.1	+0.4	−0.9	+1.3	−0.6	−0.6	+0.8
Brayden Burries	16	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Nate Ament	14	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Ousmane Dieng	3	−4.0	−3.8	−4.2	−3.2	−3.9	−5.2	−2.1	−3.4	−3.0	−1.6
Team rating	239	−1.4	−2.6	−2.2	−2.4	−3.6	−5.2	−2.0	−4.2	−4.9	−4.6