GSW @ DEN, Mon, Oct 26 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 26·GSW @ DEN·Mon, Oct 26·0 of 10 right

Golden StateWarriors

134◂

DenverNuggets

114

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	GSW	DEN	pred	pick	miss
Final			−20	GSW
LOKI †	+2.6	+8.6	+6.0	DEN	26.0	✗
BPM	−0.5	+9.9	+10.5	DEN	30.5	✗
EPM projection	+1.2	+7.4	+6.2	DEN	26.2	✗
DARKO	+0.3	+5.3	+5.1	DEN	25.1	✗
OpenRAPM	−1.4	+3.1	+4.5	DEN	24.5	✗
EPM	+0.3	+6.2	+6.0	DEN	25.9	✗
xPM	−0.6	+4.2	+4.8	DEN	24.8	✗
Pulse	−1.2	+4.7	+5.9	DEN	25.9	✗
xRAPM	0.0	+4.6	+4.7	DEN	24.7	✗
LEBRON	+0.4	+2.7	+2.3	DEN	22.3	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

GSW	rating		min		48.6		adds
Brandin Podziemski	+3.00	×	33	÷	48.6	=	+2.04
Yaxel Lendeborg	−2.00	×	31	÷	48.6	=	−1.28
Gui Santos	+1.52	×	28	÷	48.6	=	+0.88
Draymond Green	−1.43	×	27	÷	48.6	=	−0.79
Stephen Curry	+4.83	×	27	÷	48.6	=	+2.68
De'Anthony Melton	+1.01	×	19	÷	48.6	=	+0.39
Al Horford	−0.26	×	19	÷	48.6	=	−0.10
Georges Niang	−2.00	×	18	÷	48.6	=	−0.74
Brandon Williams	−0.16	×	15	÷	48.6	=	−0.05
Gary Payton II	+0.95	×	12	÷	48.6	=	+0.23
LJ Cryer	−3.10	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.19
Graham Ike	−2.00	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.12
Malevy Leons	−3.52	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.22
Will Richard	−1.59	×	3	÷	48.6	=	−0.10
Charles Bassey	−2.00	×	2	÷	48.6	=	−0.08
GSW team rating (sum)			243				+2.55

DEN	rating		min		48.6		adds
Jamal Murray	+3.02	×	36	÷	48.6	=	+2.24
Nikola Jokić	+11.38	×	35	÷	48.6	=	+8.19
Christian Braun	+0.44	×	34	÷	48.6	=	+0.31
Bryce Hopkins	−2.00	×	31	÷	48.6	=	−1.28
Aaron Gordon	+1.58	×	25	÷	48.6	=	+0.81
DeMar DeRozan	−0.78	×	29	÷	48.6	=	−0.47
Trevon Brazile	−2.00	×	17	÷	48.6	=	−0.70
Marvin Bagley III	+0.68	×	11	÷	48.6	=	+0.15
Tyus Jones	−1.02	×	9	÷	48.6	=	−0.19
DaRon Holmes II	−2.00	×	4	÷	48.6	=	−0.16
Ryan Nembhard	−0.16	×	4	÷	48.6	=	−0.01
Zeke Nnaji	−2.99	×	4	÷	48.6	=	−0.25
Cam Whitmore	−0.93	×	4	÷	48.6	=	−0.08
DEN team rating (sum)			243				+8.58

predicted margin = DEN − GSW = +8.58 − (+2.55) = +6.03 → pick DEN

final margin = 114 − 134 = −20 → won GSW ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

GSW	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Brandin Podziemski	33	+3.0	+0.2	+1.9	+0.5	−0.6	+0.7	+1.3	+0.6	+2.3	+0.2
Yaxel Lendeborg	31	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Gui Santos	28	+1.5	−0.6	+0.2	+0.8	+0.3	−0.2	+1.5	+0.6	+0.6	+0.1
Draymond Green	27	−1.4	−1.4	+0.2	0.0	−0.4	−0.2	−0.4	−0.6	−1.5	−0.7
Stephen Curry	27	+4.8	+5.4	+5.2	+2.8	+1.9	+5.9	+1.7	+2.4	+3.6	+3.1
De'Anthony Melton	19

DEN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jamal Murray	36	+3.0	+4.1	+3.8	+3.5	+2.4	+2.9	+1.3	+2.3	+0.9	+1.4
Nikola Jokić	35	+11.4	+14.2	+9.4	+7.1	+7.3	+8.4	+8.7	+8.9	+8.1	+7.4
Christian Braun	34	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5	+0.6	−0.4	+0.3	+0.9	−0.2	+0.8	−0.3
Bryce Hopkins	31	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Aaron Gordon	25	+1.6	+1.7	+1.5	+3.0	−0.4	+2.1	+1.6	+2.0	+3.7	+0.6
DeMar DeRozan	29	−0.8	−0.1	+0.4	−1.9	+0.1	+0.5	−2.6	−1.1	−2.0	−1.2
Trevon Brazile	17	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Marvin Bagley III	11	+0.7	+0.8	−1.1	−1.2	−0.6	−0.8	−0.1	0.0	−0.9	−0.2
Tyus Jones	9	−1.0	−2.4	−2.3	−1.7	−2.7	−2.2	−2.4	−3.4	−2.6	−0.8
DaRon Holmes II	4	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Ryan Nembhard	4	−0.2	−4.1	−1.2	−2.4	−2.6	−1.2	−4.0	−3.5	−0.1	−3.2
Zeke Nnaji	4	−3.0	−3.5	−4.3	−1.4	−1.9	−4.7	−0.4	−3.4	−1.4	−2.8
Cam Whitmore	4	−0.9	−3.3	−3.1	−1.9	−2.9	−3.5	−0.1	−3.9	−2.1	−2.1
Team rating	243	+8.6	+9.9	+7.4	+5.3	+3.1	+6.2	+4.2	+4.7	+4.6	+2.7