DAL @ MIA, Mon, Oct 26 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 26·DAL @ MIA·Mon, Oct 26·0 of 10 right

DallasMavericks

113◂

MiamiHeat

109

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DAL	MIA	pred	pick	miss
Final			−4	DAL
LOKI †	−3.6	+6.6	+10.2	MIA	14.2	✗
BPM	−6.2	+8.4	+14.6	MIA	18.6	✗
EPM projection	−3.3	+7.1	+10.4	MIA	14.3	✗
DARKO	−6.6	+4.6	+11.2	MIA	15.2	✗
OpenRAPM	−5.0	+4.7	+9.7	MIA	13.7	✗
EPM	−6.7	+7.4	+14.1	MIA	18.1	✗
xPM	−3.2	+3.6	+6.8	MIA	10.8	✗
Pulse	−6.0	+6.5	+12.5	MIA	16.5	✗
xRAPM	−6.7	+5.6	+12.3	MIA	16.3	✗
LEBRON	−5.0	+4.5	+9.5	MIA	13.5	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DAL	rating		min		48.4		adds
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	41	÷	48.4	=	−0.17
Cooper Flagg	+1.67	×	40	÷	48.4	=	+1.38
Kyrie Irving	−2.00	×	33	÷	48.4	=	−1.36
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	26	÷	48.4	=	+0.52
Max Christie	−0.64	×	26	÷	48.4	=	−0.35
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	30	÷	48.4	=	−1.77
Walter Clayton Jr.	−2.60	×	17	÷	48.4	=	−0.91
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	15	÷	48.4	=	−0.62
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	8	÷	48.4	=	−0.04
Sergio de Larrea	−2.00	×	6	÷	48.4	=	−0.25
DAL team rating (sum)			242				−3.57

MIA	rating		min		48		adds
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+8.65	×	39	÷	48	=	+7.03
Andrew Wiggins	−1.55	×	34	÷	48	=	−1.10
Davion Mitchell	+1.17	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.81
Bam Adebayo	+3.82	×	30	÷	48	=	+2.39
Klay Thompson	−3.27	×	15	÷	48	=	−1.02
Pelle Larsson	+0.10	×	34	÷	48	=	+0.07
Bobby Portis Jr.	−0.85	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.43
Tim Hardaway Jr.	−2.79	×	16	÷	48	=	−0.93
Dru Smith	−0.64	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.20
MIA team rating (sum)			240				+6.61

predicted margin = MIA − DAL = +6.61 − (−3.57) = +10.18 → pick MIA

final margin = 109 − 113 = −4 → won DAL ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
P.J. Washington	41	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Cooper Flagg	40	+1.7	+1.4	+2.2	−0.3	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+0.6	+0.4	−0.2
Kyrie Irving	33	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Daniel Gafford	26	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Max Christie	26	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
Zaccharie Risacher	30

MIA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Giannis Antetokounmpo	39	+8.6	+9.5	+7.9	+5.4	+4.8	+8.3	+6.4	+6.5	+5.7	+5.1
Andrew Wiggins	34	−1.6	+1.2	−0.9	−0.6	+0.3	−1.1	−0.6	+0.3	−1.7	+0.4
Davion Mitchell	33	+1.2	−0.9	+1.1	+0.4	+1.4	+1.4	−1.3	+0.2	+1.8	−0.1
Bam Adebayo	30	+3.8	+2.0	+3.4	+3.4	+4.1	+4.2	+4.2	+4.3	+2.7	+3.5
Klay Thompson	15	−3.3	−1.4	−1.5	−1.4	−4.3	−1.5	−2.7	−2.8	−1.0	−2.5
Pelle Larsson	34	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+0.1
Bobby Portis Jr.	24	−0.9	0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−3.3	−2.3	−1.2	−1.9	−2.4	−2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.	16	−2.8	−0.7	−1.0	−1.0	−2.5	−0.8	−3.7	−1.1	−1.7	−1.1
Dru Smith	15	−0.6	+2.2	−1.6	−0.8	+2.6	−1.6	−0.2	+0.2	+1.2	+0.5
Team rating	240	+6.6	+8.4	+7.1	+4.6	+4.7	+7.4	+3.6	+6.5	+5.6	+4.5