ATL @ HOU, Mon, Oct 26 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 26·ATL @ HOU·Mon, Oct 26·9 of 10 right

AtlantaHawks

110

HoustonRockets

120▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	ATL	HOU	pred	pick	miss
Final			+10	HOU
LOKI †	+5.1	+6.5	+1.4	HOU	8.6	✓
BPM	+2.5	+5.1	+2.6	HOU	7.4	✓
EPM projection	+3.7	+6.3	+2.6	HOU	7.4	✓
DARKO	+3.0	+5.2	+2.3	HOU	7.7	✓
OpenRAPM	+1.1	+1.5	+0.5	HOU	9.5	✓
EPM	+1.4	+3.1	+1.7	HOU	8.3	✓
xPM	+3.1	+5.2	+2.1	HOU	7.9	✓
Pulse	+2.1	+2.0	−0.2	ATL	10.2	✗
xRAPM	+2.0	+4.6	+2.6	HOU	7.4	✓
LEBRON	+1.3	+1.5	+0.2	HOU	9.8	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

ATL	rating		min		48		adds
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	36	÷	48	=	+1.67
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	30	÷	48	=	+0.30
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	29	÷	48	=	+1.06
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	29	÷	48	=	+1.38
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	28	÷	48	=	+2.83
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	27	÷	48	=	−0.03
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.84
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.75
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.35
Zuby Ejiofor	−2.00	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.04
Dorian Finney-Smith	−0.70	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.01
Corey Kispert	−2.49	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.05
Asa Newell	−2.56	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.05
ATL team rating (sum)			240				+5.11

HOU	rating		min		48		adds
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	39	÷	48	=	+0.30
Alperen Sengun	+2.59	×	37	÷	48	=	+1.99
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	30	÷	48	=	+2.07
Fred VanVleet	−2.00	×	29	÷	48	=	−1.21
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	28	÷	48	=	+2.72
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	33	÷	48	=	+1.33
Reed Sheppard	−1.20	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.60
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	13	÷	48	=	−0.11
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	4	÷	48	=	+0.15
Jae'Sean Tate	−2.22	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.05
Isaiah Crawford	−2.00	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.04
Bruce Thornton	−2.00	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.04
HOU team rating (sum)			240				+6.53

predicted margin = HOU − ATL = +6.53 − (+5.11) = +1.42 → pick HOU

final margin = 120 − 110 = +10 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jalen Johnson	36	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
CJ McCollum	30	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Onyeka Okongwu	29	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	29	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Dyson Daniels	28	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
Aaron Wiggins	27	−0.1	−0.9	−1.7	+0.6	−1.4	−2.7	+0.9	−1.0	+0.1	−0.3
Luguentz Dort	21	−1.9	−2.0	−0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jabari Smith Jr.	39	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Alperen Sengun	37	+2.6	+4.2	+2.8	+2.3	+1.6	+1.1	+3.1	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1
Kevin Durant	30	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Fred VanVleet	29	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Amen Thompson	28	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Tari Eason	33	+1.9	−1.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	−0.8	+1.7	−0.7	+1.8	+0.1
Reed Sheppard	24	−1.2	+2.7	−0.1	+0.9	−0.1	−1.7	+0.6	−1.2	+0.1	−1.8
Bogdan Bogdanović	13	−0.4	−3.1	−1.0	−0.3	−3.2	−0.6	−0.6	−2.0	−1.0	−1.8
Clint Capela	4	+1.8	+0.4	+0.8	+1.2	+0.7	+1.3	+0.9	+1.3	+1.4	−0.3
Jae'Sean Tate	1	−2.2	−3.9	−2.6	−1.9	−2.9	−2.2	−0.9	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1
Isaiah Crawford	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Bruce Thornton	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	240	+6.5	+5.1	+6.3	+5.2	+1.5	+3.1	+5.2	+2.0	+4.6	+1.5