IND @ BKN, Sun, Oct 25 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 25·IND @ BKN·Sun, Oct 25·7 of 10 right

IndianaPacers

136◂

BrooklynNets

109

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	IND	BKN	pred	pick	miss
Final			−27	IND
LOKI †	−2.7	−4.2	−1.5	IND	25.5	✓
BPM	−5.2	−5.9	−0.7	IND	26.3	✓
EPM projection	−3.2	−6.7	−3.5	IND	23.5	✓
DARKO	−3.0	−1.7	+1.3	BKN	28.3	✗
OpenRAPM	−7.0	−4.8	+2.3	BKN	29.3	✗
EPM	−4.0	−9.4	−5.5	IND	21.5	✓
xPM	−1.0	−1.2	−0.3	IND	26.7	✓
Pulse	−3.8	−3.3	+0.5	BKN	27.5	✗
xRAPM	−5.1	−6.2	−1.0	IND	26.0	✓
LEBRON	−4.0	−5.4	−1.4	IND	25.6	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

IND	rating		min		48.2		adds
Tyrese Haliburton	−2.00	×	31	÷	48.2	=	−1.29
Andrew Nembhard	−0.04	×	30	÷	48.2	=	−0.02
Pascal Siakam	+2.84	×	26	÷	48.2	=	+1.53
Aaron Nesmith	+0.29	×	19	÷	48.2	=	+0.11
Ivica Zubac	−0.07	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	−2.40	×	22	÷	48.2	=	−1.09
Jay Huff	−0.65	×	21	÷	48.2	=	−0.28
Kelly Oubre Jr.	−2.34	×	20	÷	48.2	=	−0.97
Obi Toppin	+1.55	×	20	÷	48.2	=	+0.64
Jarace Walker	−3.61	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−1.42
Quenton Jackson	+0.62	×	18	÷	48.2	=	+0.23
Jalen Slawson	−0.79	×	8	÷	48.2	=	−0.13
IND team rating (sum)			241				−2.70

BKN	rating		min		47.8		adds
Julius Randle	+0.96	×	24	÷	47.8	=	+0.48
Keon Ellis	−0.13	×	23	÷	47.8	=	−0.06
Michael Porter Jr.	+1.64	×	21	÷	47.8	=	+0.72
Egor Dëmin	−0.69	×	19	÷	47.8	=	−0.28
Day'Ron Sharpe	+4.02	×	16	÷	47.8	=	+1.34
Nolan Traore	−3.62	×	25	÷	47.8	=	−1.89
Josh Minott	+0.63	×	21	÷	47.8	=	+0.28
Chaney Johnson	−1.62	×	21	÷	47.8	=	−0.71
Noah Clowney	−2.51	×	20	÷	47.8	=	−1.05
Danny Wolf	−2.94	×	15	÷	47.8	=	−0.92
Moritz Wagner	−0.30	×	14	÷	47.8	=	−0.09
Drake Powell	−5.85	×	12	÷	47.8	=	−1.47
Joshua Jefferson	−2.00	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.17
Ben Saraf	−4.98	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.42
BKN team rating (sum)			239				−4.23

predicted margin = BKN − IND = −4.23 − (−2.70) = −1.53 → pick IND

final margin = 109 − 136 = −27 → won IND ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

IND	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Tyrese Haliburton	31	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Andrew Nembhard	30	0.0	−0.8	+1.1	−0.6	−2.0	+0.5	−0.8	−0.4	−0.8	+0.2
Pascal Siakam	26	+2.8	+0.7	+2.2	+1.4	+0.6	+2.0	+1.7	+0.8	+1.9	+1.0
Aaron Nesmith	19	+0.3	−3.4	+0.5	−0.1	−1.9	+0.5	+0.4	−1.5	+0.6	−0.9
Ivica Zubac	7	−0.1	−0.3	+2.6	+1.6	−1.4	+3.1	+1.2	+0.4	+1.0	−0.1
Larry Nance Jr.	22

BKN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Julius Randle	24	+1.0	+1.5	+0.5	+0.4	+0.7	+0.2	0.0	+0.8	−0.2	+0.3
Keon Ellis	23	−0.1	−0.5	−1.0	+0.3	−0.2	−1.6	+1.2	−0.4	+0.1	−0.2
Michael Porter Jr.	21	+1.6	+3.0	+2.3	+2.0	+0.7	+2.1	+0.7	+2.0	+0.6	+0.7
Egor Dëmin	19	−0.7	−1.6	−1.0	−1.2	−1.3	−1.7	−1.1	−1.1	+0.3	−0.9
Day'Ron Sharpe	16	+4.0	+1.4	+1.2	+1.5	+2.1	+0.9	+4.7	+2.8	+2.6	+0.5
Nolan Traore	25	−3.6	−6.8	−4.9	−2.7	−3.6	−6.0	−3.2	−4.2	−3.2	−3.4
Josh Minott	21	+0.6	+2.5	−1.7	+2.5	+0.6	−2.6	+2.5	+1.8	−0.1	−0.3
Chaney Johnson	21	−1.6	+0.1	−1.6	−0.4	−0.9	−1.2	−1.8	−0.3	−4.1	−0.9
Noah Clowney	20	−2.5	−3.4	−1.4	−1.4	−1.1	−2.0	−1.0	−1.5	−2.4	−2.8
Danny Wolf	15	−2.9	−2.5	−1.9	−1.4	−2.3	−2.7	−0.4	−1.5	−1.3	−0.8
Moritz Wagner	14	−0.3	−2.2	−0.9	−1.1	−2.5	−0.6	+0.5	−0.9	−3.3	−0.3
Drake Powell	12	−5.9	−6.0	−5.7	−2.7	−4.5	−7.6	−4.3	−5.5	−3.9	−4.8
Joshua Jefferson	4	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Ben Saraf	4	−5.0	−7.3	−5.8	−3.5	−3.4	−7.1	−3.3	−5.2	−4.0	−3.6
Team rating	239	−4.2	−5.9	−6.7	−1.7	−4.8	−9.4	−1.2	−3.3	−6.2	−5.4