SAS @ DAL, Sat, Oct 24 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 24·SAS @ DAL·Sat, Oct 24·10 of 10 right

San AntonioSpurs

122◂

DallasMavericks

106

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	SAS	DAL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−16	SAS
LOKI †	+9.6	−5.6	−15.1	SAS	0.9	✓
BPM	+11.3	−8.5	−19.8	SAS	3.8	✓
EPM projection	+12.0	−6.3	−18.3	SAS	2.3	✓
DARKO	+7.1	−7.0	−14.1	SAS	1.9	✓
OpenRAPM	+10.6	−6.9	−17.5	SAS	1.5	✓
EPM	+10.4	−8.6	−19.0	SAS	3.0	✓
xPM	+9.6	−4.0	−13.6	SAS	2.4	✓
Pulse	+7.3	−7.6	−14.9	SAS	1.1	✓
xRAPM	+13.6	−7.0	−20.6	SAS	4.6	✓
LEBRON	+7.6	−6.0	−13.6	SAS	2.4	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

SAS	rating		min		48		adds
Devin Vassell	+1.61	×	32	÷	48	=	+1.08
Victor Wembanyama	+10.01	×	29	÷	48	=	+6.05
Stephon Castle	+1.18	×	28	÷	48	=	+0.69
Dylan Harper	+1.55	×	28	÷	48	=	+0.90
De'Aaron Fox	+2.44	×	28	÷	48	=	+1.42
Julian Champagnie	+1.58	×	28	÷	48	=	+0.92
Keldon Johnson	−0.41	×	26	÷	48	=	−0.22
Luke Kornet	+1.25	×	14	÷	48	=	+0.37
Carter Bryant	−5.19	×	10	÷	48	=	−1.08
Tarris Reed Jr.	−2.00	×	7	÷	48	=	−0.29
Harrison Barnes	−1.71	×	4	÷	48	=	−0.14
Ja'Kobi Gillespie	−2.00	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.12
Jordan McLaughlin	+0.34	×	3	÷	48	=	+0.02
SAS team rating (sum)			240				+9.57

DAL	rating		min		47.8		adds
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	36	÷	47.8	=	−0.15
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	32	÷	47.8	=	−1.91
Max Christie	−0.64	×	26	÷	47.8	=	−0.35
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	23	÷	47.8	=	+0.47
Naji Marshall	−0.36	×	21	÷	47.8	=	−0.16
Sergio de Larrea	−2.00	×	33	÷	47.8	=	−1.38
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	27	÷	47.8	=	−0.14
Walter Clayton Jr.	−2.60	×	14	÷	47.8	=	−0.76
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	12	÷	47.8	=	−0.50
Moussa Cisse	−0.94	×	7	÷	47.8	=	−0.14
Tobi Lawal	−2.00	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.17
Jett Howard	−4.45	×	4	÷	47.8	=	−0.37
DAL team rating (sum)			239				−5.56

predicted margin = DAL − SAS = −5.56 − (+9.57) = −15.13 → pick SAS

final margin = 106 − 122 = −16 → won SAS ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

SAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Devin Vassell	32	+1.6	+0.5	+1.8	+1.5	+1.6	+1.9	+0.9	+0.4	+1.3	−0.1
Victor Wembanyama	29	+10.0	+10.7	+9.0	+6.2	+8.8	+8.8	+10.4	+8.9	+10.2	+7.6
Stephon Castle	28	+1.2	+1.9	+3.3	+1.4	+2.3	+1.8	+1.3	+1.2	+1.5	+1.5
Dylan Harper	28	+1.5	+1.4	+3.5	+0.5	+1.2	+2.8	+1.7	−0.6	+4.5	+0.9
De'Aaron Fox	28	+2.4	+2.2	+3.5	+2.4	+1.8	+3.4	+1.3	+2.4	+3.6	+1.7
Julian Champagnie	28	+1.6	+1.4	+1.4	+1.5	+3.0	+1.8	+1.2	+1.1	+2.4	+1.5
Keldon Johnson	26	−0.4	+0.9	−1.0	−0.5	−0.3

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
P.J. Washington	36	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Zaccharie Risacher	32	−2.8	−2.5	−2.0	−2.0	−1.4	−2.8	−1.2	−2.2	−2.3	−0.4
Max Christie	26	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
Daniel Gafford	23	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Naji Marshall	21	−0.4	−0.6	−0.9	−1.3	−0.8	−1.6	−0.3	−0.6	−0.1	−1.1
Sergio de Larrea	33	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Marcus Sasser	27	−0.3	−1.7	−1.4	−0.3	−2.0	−1.8	−0.3	−1.5	+0.1	−2.1
Walter Clayton Jr.	14	−2.6	−4.3	−2.5	−2.3	−3.2	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1	−2.9	−2.7
Morez Johnson Jr.	12	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Moussa Cisse	7	−0.9	−2.9	−1.1	−0.5	+0.8	−1.7	−1.0	−1.4	−1.9	+0.1
Tobi Lawal	4	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Jett Howard	4	−4.4	−1.8	−4.1	−2.1	−3.4	−4.9	−2.5	−2.9	−1.4	−1.6
Team rating	239	−5.6	−8.5	−6.3	−7.0	−6.9	−8.6	−4.0	−7.6	−7.0	−6.0