NOP @ DEN, Sat, Oct 24 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 24·NOP @ DEN·Sat, Oct 24·10 of 10 right

New OrleansPelicans

135

DenverNuggets

141▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	NOP	DEN	pred	pick	miss
Final			+6	DEN
LOKI †	+1.2	+10.9	+9.8	DEN	3.8	✓
BPM	−0.9	+12.6	+13.5	DEN	7.5	✓
EPM projection	−0.1	+9.4	+9.5	DEN	3.5	✓
DARKO	−1.7	+7.7	+9.4	DEN	3.4	✓
OpenRAPM	−4.6	+4.4	+9.0	DEN	3.0	✓
EPM	−3.9	+8.1	+12.1	DEN	6.1	✓
xPM	+1.8	+6.7	+4.9	DEN	1.1	✓
Pulse	−1.9	+6.8	+8.8	DEN	2.8	✓
xRAPM	−5.8	+6.9	+12.7	DEN	6.7	✓
LEBRON	−0.9	+4.5	+5.4	DEN	0.6	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

NOP	rating		min		52.8		adds
Trey Murphy III	+1.56	×	37	÷	52.8	=	+1.09
Dejounte Murray	+0.50	×	35	÷	52.8	=	+0.33
Zion Williamson	+3.85	×	33	÷	52.8	=	+2.41
Jeremiah Fears	−1.42	×	23	÷	52.8	=	−0.62
DeAndre Jordan	−2.00	×	20	÷	52.8	=	−0.76
Derik Queen	−2.22	×	25	÷	52.8	=	−1.05
Saddiq Bey	+0.70	×	25	÷	52.8	=	+0.33
Jordan Poole	−0.89	×	22	÷	52.8	=	−0.37
Bennedict Mathurin	−1.56	×	20	÷	52.8	=	−0.59
Herbert Jones	+1.36	×	16	÷	52.8	=	+0.41
Karlo Matković	+0.08	×	8	÷	52.8	=	+0.01
NOP team rating (sum)			264				+1.19

DEN	rating		min		53		adds
Nikola Jokić	+11.38	×	44	÷	53	=	+9.45
Jamal Murray	+3.02	×	43	÷	53	=	+2.45
Christian Braun	+0.44	×	40	÷	53	=	+0.33
Aaron Gordon	+1.58	×	37	÷	53	=	+1.10
Bryce Hopkins	−2.00	×	19	÷	53	=	−0.72
Trevon Brazile	−2.00	×	28	÷	53	=	−1.06
DeMar DeRozan	−0.78	×	24	÷	53	=	−0.35
Cam Whitmore	−0.93	×	11	÷	53	=	−0.19
Tyus Jones	−1.02	×	10	÷	53	=	−0.19
Marvin Bagley III	+0.68	×	9	÷	53	=	+0.12
DEN team rating (sum)			265				+10.94

predicted margin = DEN − NOP = +10.94 − (+1.19) = +9.75 → pick DEN

final margin = 141 − 135 = +6 → won DEN ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

NOP	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Trey Murphy III	37	+1.6	+2.4	+1.1	+0.5	+0.5	+0.6	+1.6	+2.5	−0.6	+0.5
Dejounte Murray	35	+0.5	+1.4	+0.3	+0.6	+0.6	0.0	+0.3	+1.0	−2.5	+1.6
Zion Williamson	33	+3.8	+2.9	+2.3	+1.6	+0.2	+0.9	+3.5	+0.8	+0.9	+0.4
Jeremiah Fears	23	−1.4	−2.7	−0.2	−0.8	−2.7	−2.1	−1.7	−3.4	−2.8	−1.5
DeAndre Jordan	20	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Derik Queen	25

DEN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Nikola Jokić	44	+11.4	+14.2	+9.4	+7.1	+7.3	+8.4	+8.7	+8.9	+8.1	+7.4
Jamal Murray	43	+3.0	+4.1	+3.8	+3.5	+2.4	+2.9	+1.3	+2.3	+0.9	+1.4
Christian Braun	40	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5	+0.6	−0.4	+0.3	+0.9	−0.2	+0.8	−0.3
Aaron Gordon	37	+1.6	+1.7	+1.5	+3.0	−0.4	+2.1	+1.6	+2.0	+3.7	+0.6
Bryce Hopkins	19	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Trevon Brazile	28	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
DeMar DeRozan	24	−0.8	−0.1	+0.4	−1.9	+0.1	+0.5	−2.6	−1.1	−2.0	−1.2
Cam Whitmore	11	−0.9	−3.3	−3.1	−1.9	−2.9	−3.5	−0.1	−3.9	−2.1	−2.1
Tyus Jones	10	−1.0	−2.4	−2.3	−1.7	−2.7	−2.2	−2.4	−3.4	−2.6	−0.8
Marvin Bagley III	9	+0.7	+0.8	−1.1	−1.2	−0.6	−0.8	−0.1	0.0	−0.9	−0.2
Team rating	265	+10.9	+12.6	+9.4	+7.7	+4.4	+8.1	+6.7	+6.8	+6.9	+4.5