HOU @ ATL, Sat, Oct 24 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 24·HOU @ ATL·Sat, Oct 24·10 of 10 right

HoustonRockets

121◂

AtlantaHawks

114

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	HOU	ATL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−7	HOU
LOKI †	+8.9	+5.5	−3.4	HOU	3.6	✓
BPM	+7.2	+3.0	−4.2	HOU	2.8	✓
EPM projection	+8.4	+4.1	−4.2	HOU	2.8	✓
DARKO	+7.1	+3.2	−3.9	HOU	3.1	✓
OpenRAPM	+2.9	+1.4	−1.5	HOU	5.5	✓
EPM	+5.1	+1.8	−3.3	HOU	3.7	✓
xPM	+7.2	+3.4	−3.8	HOU	3.2	✓
Pulse	+3.9	+2.6	−1.3	HOU	5.7	✓
xRAPM	+6.7	+2.4	−4.3	HOU	2.7	✓
LEBRON	+2.7	+1.6	−1.1	HOU	5.9	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

HOU	rating		min		48		adds
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	39	÷	48	=	+3.79
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	37	÷	48	=	+2.56
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.26
Alperen Sengun	+2.59	×	33	÷	48	=	+1.78
Reed Sheppard	−1.20	×	30	÷	48	=	−0.75
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	31	÷	48	=	+1.25
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	20	÷	48	=	−0.17
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	11	÷	48	=	+0.41
Bruce Thornton	−2.00	×	4	÷	48	=	−0.17
Isaiah Crawford	−2.00	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.04
Jae'Sean Tate	−2.22	×	1	÷	48	=	−0.05
HOU team rating (sum)			240				+8.87

ATL	rating		min		48		adds
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	38	÷	48	=	+1.77
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	32	÷	48	=	+1.52
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	30	÷	48	=	+0.30
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	29	÷	48	=	+2.93
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.95
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	28	÷	48	=	−0.04
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.92
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.37
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.62
ATL team rating (sum)			240				+5.52

predicted margin = ATL − HOU = +5.52 − (+8.87) = −3.36 → pick HOU

final margin = 114 − 121 = −7 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Amen Thompson	39	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Kevin Durant	37	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Jabari Smith Jr.	33	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Alperen Sengun	33	+2.6	+4.2	+2.8	+2.3	+1.6	+1.1	+3.1	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1
Reed Sheppard	30	−1.2	+2.7	−0.1	+0.9	−0.1	−1.7	+0.6	−1.2	+0.1	−1.8
Tari Eason	31	+1.9	−1.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	−0.8	+1.7	−0.7	+1.8	+0.1
Bogdan Bogdanović	20	−0.4	−3.1	−1.0	−0.3	−3.2	−0.6

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jalen Johnson	38	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	32	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
CJ McCollum	30	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Dyson Daniels	29	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
Onyeka Okongwu	26	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
Aaron Wiggins	28	−0.1	−0.9	−1.7	+0.6	−1.4	−2.7	+0.9	−1.0	+0.1	−0.3
Luguentz Dort	23	−1.9	−2.0	−0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3	−0.6	−1.1	−1.6	−0.8
Jock Landale	19	−0.9	−0.1	−0.8	−0.8	−0.6	−0.7	+0.5	+0.2	−2.5	0.0
Kingston Flemings	15	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	240	+5.5	+3.0	+4.1	+3.2	+1.4	+1.8	+3.4	+2.6	+2.4	+1.6