TOR @ WAS, Fri, Oct 23 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 23·TOR @ WAS·Fri, Oct 23·10 of 10 right

TorontoRaptors

112◂

WashingtonWizards

102

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	TOR	WAS	pred	pick	miss
Final			−10	TOR
LOKI †	+9.4	−0.3	−9.7	TOR	0.3	✓
BPM	+8.4	−3.7	−12.1	TOR	2.1	✓
EPM projection	+10.0	−0.5	−10.5	TOR	0.5	✓
DARKO	+8.5	−4.0	−12.5	TOR	2.5	✓
OpenRAPM	+6.9	−3.7	−10.5	TOR	0.6	✓
EPM	+8.1	−2.7	−10.8	TOR	0.8	✓
xPM	+6.9	−0.1	−7.0	TOR	3.0	✓
Pulse	+7.4	−2.5	−10.0	TOR	0.0	✓
xRAPM	+6.9	−6.6	−13.6	TOR	3.6	✓
LEBRON	+6.1	−4.8	−10.9	TOR	0.9	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

TOR	rating		min		48.4		adds
Scottie Barnes	+2.99	×	37	÷	48.4	=	+2.29
RJ Barrett	+1.59	×	34	÷	48.4	=	+1.12
Immanuel Quickley	+2.31	×	29	÷	48.4	=	+1.38
Kawhi Leonard	+8.45	×	28	÷	48.4	=	+4.89
Jakob Poeltl	+1.56	×	27	÷	48.4	=	+0.87
Jamal Shead	+0.80	×	24	÷	48.4	=	+0.39
Ja'Kobe Walter	−0.92	×	24	÷	48.4	=	−0.46
Collin Murray-Boyles	+0.15	×	18	÷	48.4	=	+0.06
Jamison Battle	−3.03	×	12	÷	48.4	=	−0.75
Allen Graves	−2.00	×	6	÷	48.4	=	−0.25
Jaden Bradley	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.4	=	−0.04
Trayce Jackson-Davis	−1.16	×	1	÷	48.4	=	−0.02
Alijah Martin	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.4	=	−0.04
TOR team rating (sum)			242				+9.43

WAS	rating		min		48.2		adds
Trae Young	+2.22	×	37	÷	48.2	=	+1.70
Anthony Davis	+3.28	×	32	÷	48.2	=	+2.17
Kyshawn George	−0.64	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−0.35
Bilal Coulibaly	−1.32	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−0.71
Alex Sarr	+0.35	×	25	÷	48.2	=	+0.18
Tre Johnson	−2.40	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−1.29
Justin Champagnie	+1.40	×	23	÷	48.2	=	+0.67
Khris Middleton	−3.21	×	16	÷	48.2	=	−1.07
Deandre Ayton	−1.24	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.36
Bub Carrington	−4.20	×	11	÷	48.2	=	−0.96
Reece Beekman	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
Tre Mann	−3.76	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.08
Felix Okpara	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
Will Riley	−3.33	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.07
Anthony Gill	−3.07	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.06
WAS team rating (sum)			241				−0.30

predicted margin = WAS − TOR = −0.30 − (+9.43) = −9.74 → pick TOR

final margin = 102 − 112 = −10 → won TOR ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

TOR	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Scottie Barnes	37	+3.0	+4.2	+3.6	+3.0	+3.8	+2.8	+3.2	+4.5	+2.7	+3.0
RJ Barrett	34	+1.6	+0.2	+2.2	+1.1	+0.6	+2.4	−0.7	+0.9	+0.1	+1.2
Immanuel Quickley	29	+2.3	+2.4	+2.2	+1.1	+0.4	+1.6	+2.4	+0.8	+1.8	+2.3
Kawhi Leonard	28	+8.4	+8.0	+7.5	+6.5	+5.7	+7.1	+4.3	+5.9	+5.0	+5.0
Jakob Poeltl	27	+1.6	+1.6	+1.3	+2.5	+1.0	+1.3	+2.7	+1.6	+0.8	−0.2
Jamal Shead	24	+0.8	−2.3	+1.0	+0.2	−0.2	+1.2	−1.0	+0.1	+1.1	+0.2
Ja'Kobe Walter	24	−0.9	−0.3	−1.3	−0.4	+0.2	−2.1

WAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Trae Young	37	+2.2	+2.8	+2.6	+1.2	+0.1	+2.9	+0.9	+1.8	−0.5	+0.9
Anthony Davis	32	+3.3	+2.4	+2.8	+2.2	+1.1	+3.0	+3.3	+2.5	+1.3	+1.6
Kyshawn George	26	−0.6	−1.2	−0.2	−2.1	−0.7	−0.9	0.0	0.0	−0.7	−1.1
Bilal Coulibaly	26	−1.3	−2.1	−1.1	−1.8	+0.3	−1.8	−0.9	−0.7	−1.2	−1.7
Alex Sarr	25	+0.4	+0.7	−1.1	−2.2	+0.6	−1.7	+0.8	−0.4	−3.4	−0.3
Tre Johnson	26	−2.4	−5.0	−2.1	−2.8	−4.0	−3.2	−2.8	−4.1	−1.1	−4.4
Justin Champagnie	23	+1.4	−0.4	−0.7	−0.1	−0.3	−1.5	+0.7	−1.2	−0.9	−0.9
Khris Middleton	16	−3.2	−4.4	−1.4	−1.9	−2.7	−1.6	−1.0	−1.9	−2.3	−1.4
Deandre Ayton	14	−1.2	−0.9	−0.3	+0.5	−0.5	−0.8	−0.7	−0.7	−4.0	−0.3
Bub Carrington	11	−4.2	−4.7	−2.9	−3.9	−4.0	−4.2	−4.4	−4.7	−4.6	−5.6
Reece Beekman	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Tre Mann	1	−3.8	−5.3	−4.5	−2.6	−4.0	−5.2	−1.3	−3.9	−4.1	−1.7
Felix Okpara	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Will Riley	1	−3.3	−4.5	−4.0	−2.4	−4.1	−5.8	−3.2	−4.5	−3.6	−4.0
Anthony Gill	1	−3.1	−2.6	−4.3	−1.7	−1.9	−5.1	−1.8	−2.3	−4.4	−3.6
Team rating	241	−0.3	−3.7	−0.5	−4.0	−3.7	−2.7	−0.1	−2.5	−6.6	−4.8