HOU @ SAS, Fri, Oct 23 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 23·HOU @ SAS·Fri, Oct 23·0 of 10 right

HoustonRockets

114◂

San AntonioSpurs

110

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	HOU	SAS	pred	pick	miss
Final			−4	HOU
LOKI †	+9.0	+12.0	+3.1	SAS	7.1	✗
BPM	+4.2	+13.4	+9.3	SAS	13.3	✗
EPM projection	+8.2	+15.1	+6.9	SAS	10.9	✗
DARKO	+6.3	+9.0	+2.7	SAS	6.7	✗
OpenRAPM	+3.1	+12.7	+9.6	SAS	13.6	✗
EPM	+6.1	+13.4	+7.3	SAS	11.3	✗
xPM	+6.0	+11.6	+5.6	SAS	9.6	✗
Pulse	+4.8	+9.3	+4.5	SAS	8.4	✗
xRAPM	+7.1	+16.4	+9.3	SAS	13.3	✗
LEBRON	+3.2	+9.1	+5.9	SAS	9.9	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

HOU	rating		min		48.2		adds
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	37	÷	48.2	=	+2.55
Alperen Sengun	+2.59	×	36	÷	48.2	=	+1.93
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	36	÷	48.2	=	+3.48
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	34	÷	48.2	=	+0.26
Fred VanVleet	−2.00	×	32	÷	48.2	=	−1.33
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	27	÷	48.2	=	+1.09
Marcus Smart	+1.70	×	21	÷	48.2	=	+0.74
Steven Adams	+1.66	×	9	÷	48.2	=	+0.31
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	9	÷	48.2	=	−0.07
HOU team rating (sum)			241				+8.96

SAS	rating		min		48		adds
Devin Vassell	+1.61	×	36	÷	48	=	+1.21
Dylan Harper	+1.55	×	36	÷	48	=	+1.16
De'Aaron Fox	+2.44	×	34	÷	48	=	+1.73
Stephon Castle	+1.18	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.81
Victor Wembanyama	+10.01	×	32	÷	48	=	+6.67
Julian Champagnie	+1.58	×	25	÷	48	=	+0.82
Keldon Johnson	−0.41	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.16
Luke Kornet	+1.25	×	16	÷	48	=	+0.42
Harrison Barnes	−1.71	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.18
Carter Bryant	−5.19	×	4	÷	48	=	−0.43
SAS team rating (sum)			240				+12.04

predicted margin = SAS − HOU = +12.04 − (+8.96) = +3.08 → pick SAS

final margin = 110 − 114 = −4 → won HOU ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Kevin Durant	37	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Alperen Sengun	36	+2.6	+4.2	+2.8	+2.3	+1.6	+1.1	+3.1	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1
Amen Thompson	36	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Jabari Smith Jr.	34	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Fred VanVleet	32	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Tari Eason	27

SAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Devin Vassell	36	+1.6	+0.5	+1.8	+1.5	+1.6	+1.9	+0.9	+0.4	+1.3	−0.1
Dylan Harper	36	+1.5	+1.4	+3.5	+0.5	+1.2	+2.8	+1.7	−0.6	+4.5	+0.9
De'Aaron Fox	34	+2.4	+2.2	+3.5	+2.4	+1.8	+3.4	+1.3	+2.4	+3.6	+1.7
Stephon Castle	33	+1.2	+1.9	+3.3	+1.4	+2.3	+1.8	+1.3	+1.2	+1.5	+1.5
Victor Wembanyama	32	+10.0	+10.7	+9.0	+6.2	+8.8	+8.8	+10.4	+8.9	+10.2	+7.6
Julian Champagnie	25	+1.6	+1.4	+1.4	+1.5	+3.0	+1.8	+1.2	+1.1	+2.4	+1.5
Keldon Johnson	19	−0.4	+0.9	−1.0	−0.5	−0.3	−1.5	−0.4	−0.2	−0.5	+0.5
Luke Kornet	16	+1.3	+3.6	+0.9	+0.8	+2.0	+0.4	+2.6	+2.5	+2.5	+0.9
Harrison Barnes	5	−1.7	−0.1	+0.4	+0.5	−0.2	+0.9	−2.4	−0.2	−1.9	+0.1
Carter Bryant	4	−5.2	−3.0	−2.7	−2.4	−2.0	−3.5	−1.5	−3.7	−0.6	−1.2
Team rating	240	+12.0	+13.4	+15.1	+9.0	+12.7	+13.4	+11.6	+9.3	+16.4	+9.1