DET @ MIA, Fri, Oct 23 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 23·DET @ MIA·Fri, Oct 23·9 of 10 right

DetroitPistons

128◂

MiamiHeat

111

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DET	MIA	pred	pick	miss
Final			−17	DET
LOKI †	+7.2	+3.7	−3.5	DET	13.5	✓
BPM	+9.2	+4.7	−4.5	DET	12.5	✓
EPM projection	+6.0	+4.7	−1.2	DET	15.8	✓
DARKO	+5.3	+2.8	−2.5	DET	14.4	✓
OpenRAPM	+5.4	+1.1	−4.4	DET	12.6	✓
EPM	+4.5	+4.9	+0.4	MIA	17.4	✗
xPM	+8.0	+1.1	−6.9	DET	10.1	✓
Pulse	+7.2	+3.3	−3.8	DET	13.2	✓
xRAPM	+8.0	+3.5	−4.5	DET	12.5	✓
LEBRON	+7.3	+2.1	−5.2	DET	11.8	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DET	rating		min		47.8		adds
Cade Cunningham	+4.46	×	30	÷	47.8	=	+2.80
John Collins	−0.13	×	29	÷	47.8	=	−0.08
Duncan Robinson	−0.42	×	28	÷	47.8	=	−0.24
Ausar Thompson	+3.92	×	19	÷	47.8	=	+1.56
Jalen Duren	+3.93	×	10	÷	47.8	=	+0.82
Paul Reed	+3.37	×	26	÷	47.8	=	+1.83
Ronald Holland II	−1.41	×	22	÷	47.8	=	−0.65
Daniss Jenkins	−0.72	×	22	÷	47.8	=	−0.33
Kevin Huerter	+1.82	×	20	÷	47.8	=	+0.76
Isaiah Joe	+1.79	×	18	÷	47.8	=	+0.68
Javonte Green	+0.67	×	13	÷	47.8	=	+0.18
Tolu Smith	−2.00	×	2	÷	47.8	=	−0.08
DET team rating (sum)			239				+7.25

MIA	rating		min		48.2		adds
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+8.65	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+5.92
Davion Mitchell	+1.17	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+0.80
Andrew Wiggins	−1.55	×	26	÷	48.2	=	−0.84
Klay Thompson	−3.27	×	24	÷	48.2	=	−1.63
Bam Adebayo	+3.82	×	23	÷	48.2	=	+1.82
Pelle Larsson	+0.10	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+0.06
Bobby Portis Jr.	−0.85	×	21	÷	48.2	=	−0.37
Tim Hardaway Jr.	−2.79	×	21	÷	48.2	=	−1.21
Nikola Jović	−0.93	×	13	÷	48.2	=	−0.25
Dru Smith	−0.64	×	6	÷	48.2	=	−0.08
Ryan Conwell	−2.00	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.12
Simone Fontecchio	−0.78	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.05
Myron Gardner	−1.74	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.11
Nick Richards	−3.56	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.22
MIA team rating (sum)			241				+3.72

predicted margin = MIA − DET = +3.72 − (+7.25) = −3.52 → pick DET

final margin = 111 − 128 = −17 → won DET ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DET	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Cade Cunningham	30	+4.5	+6.3	+5.5	+3.8	+4.0	+4.1	+3.7	+4.8	+3.7	+5.4
John Collins	29	−0.1	−0.5	−0.8	+0.3	−1.3	−1.4	+1.4	−0.2	−1.7	−0.1
Duncan Robinson	28	−0.4	+0.8	+0.4	+0.9	−0.5	+0.8	−0.8	+0.4	+1.3	+1.1
Ausar Thompson	19	+3.9	+3.1	+3.5	+1.1	+4.8	+3.8	+3.5	+3.3	+3.2	+2.8
Jalen Duren	10	+3.9	+5.0	+3.5	+1.7	+2.7	+3.2	+4.4	+4.3	+1.4	+4.0
Paul Reed	26	+3.4	+5.3	+2.0	+1.7	+3.0	+2.4	+4.3	+4.0	+2.2	+2.0
Ronald Holland II	22	−1.4	−2.0	−0.9	+0.3	+0.6	−2.1

MIA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Giannis Antetokounmpo	33	+8.6	+9.5	+7.9	+5.4	+4.8	+8.3	+6.4	+6.5	+5.7	+5.1
Davion Mitchell	33	+1.2	−0.9	+1.1	+0.4	+1.4	+1.4	−1.3	+0.2	+1.8	−0.1
Andrew Wiggins	26	−1.6	+1.2	−0.9	−0.6	+0.3	−1.1	−0.6	+0.3	−1.7	+0.4
Klay Thompson	24	−3.3	−1.4	−1.5	−1.4	−4.3	−1.5	−2.7	−2.8	−1.0	−2.5
Bam Adebayo	23	+3.8	+2.0	+3.4	+3.4	+4.1	+4.2	+4.2	+4.3	+2.7	+3.5
Pelle Larsson	29	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+0.1
Bobby Portis Jr.	21	−0.9	0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−3.3	−2.3	−1.2	−1.9	−2.4	−2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.	21	−2.8	−0.7	−1.0	−1.0	−2.5	−0.8	−3.7	−1.1	−1.7	−1.1
Nikola Jović	13	−0.9	−3.5	−2.0	−1.3	−2.3	−2.3	+0.2	−2.6	0.0	−1.5
Dru Smith	6	−0.6	+2.2	−1.6	−0.8	+2.6	−1.6	−0.2	+0.2	+1.2	+0.5
Ryan Conwell	3	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Simone Fontecchio	3	−0.8	+0.5	−0.9	−0.1	−1.4	−0.5	−1.3	−0.4	+0.3	−0.4
Myron Gardner	3	−1.7	+0.9	−1.4	−0.7	−0.5	−1.7	−1.4	+0.6	−2.3	+0.5
Nick Richards	3	−3.6	−6.1	−2.2	−2.0	−3.2	−2.5	−3.3	−3.3	−7.8	−1.7
Team rating	241	+3.7	+4.7	+4.7	+2.8	+1.1	+4.9	+1.1	+3.3	+3.5	+2.1