DAL @ IND, Fri, Oct 23 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 23·DAL @ IND·Fri, Oct 23·1 of 10 right

DallasMavericks

121◂

IndianaPacers

105

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DAL	IND	pred	pick	miss
Final			−16	DAL
LOKI †	−3.9	−1.2	+2.7	IND	18.7	✗
BPM	−6.6	−3.8	+2.8	IND	18.8	✗
EPM projection	−4.9	−1.3	+3.6	IND	19.6	✗
DARKO	−6.5	−1.4	+5.1	IND	21.1	✗
OpenRAPM	−6.0	−7.1	−1.0	DAL	14.9	✓
EPM	−7.8	−1.8	+6.0	IND	22.0	✗
xPM	−3.7	−0.7	+3.0	IND	19.0	✗
Pulse	−6.4	−2.8	+3.6	IND	19.6	✗
xRAPM	−5.8	−3.3	+2.5	IND	18.5	✗
LEBRON	−5.9	−3.2	+2.7	IND	18.7	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DAL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Max Christie	−0.64	×	38	÷	48.2	=	−0.51
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	33	÷	48.2	=	−0.14
Kyrie Irving	−2.00	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.04
Cooper Flagg	+1.67	×	17	÷	48.2	=	+0.59
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	15	÷	48.2	=	+0.30
Naji Marshall	−0.36	×	33	÷	48.2	=	−0.24
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	32	÷	48.2	=	−1.89
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	27	÷	48.2	=	−0.14
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	17	÷	48.2	=	−0.71
Moussa Cisse	−0.94	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.02
Walter Clayton Jr.	−2.60	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.05
Tobi Lawal	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
Sergio de Larrea	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
DAL team rating (sum)			241				−3.93

IND	rating		min		47.8		adds
Andrew Nembhard	−0.04	×	32	÷	47.8	=	−0.03
Tyrese Haliburton	−2.00	×	32	÷	47.8	=	−1.34
Pascal Siakam	+2.84	×	29	÷	47.8	=	+1.73
Ivica Zubac	−0.07	×	24	÷	47.8	=	−0.04
Jarace Walker	−3.61	×	17	÷	47.8	=	−1.28
Obi Toppin	+1.55	×	25	÷	47.8	=	+0.81
Aaron Nesmith	+0.29	×	20	÷	47.8	=	+0.12
Kelly Oubre Jr.	−2.34	×	20	÷	47.8	=	−0.98
Quenton Jackson	+0.62	×	17	÷	47.8	=	+0.22
Jalen Slawson	−0.79	×	16	÷	47.8	=	−0.26
Jay Huff	−0.65	×	5	÷	47.8	=	−0.07
Kobe Brown	−3.89	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.08
Larry Nance Jr.	−2.40	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.05
IND team rating (sum)			239				−1.25

predicted margin = IND − DAL = −1.25 − (−3.93) = +2.68 → pick IND

final margin = 105 − 121 = −16 → won DAL ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Max Christie	38	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
P.J. Washington	33	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Kyrie Irving	25	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Cooper Flagg	17	+1.7	+1.4	+2.2	−0.3	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+0.6	+0.4	−0.2
Daniel Gafford	15	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Naji Marshall	33

IND	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Andrew Nembhard	32	0.0	−0.8	+1.1	−0.6	−2.0	+0.5	−0.8	−0.4	−0.8	+0.2
Tyrese Haliburton	32	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Pascal Siakam	29	+2.8	+0.7	+2.2	+1.4	+0.6	+2.0	+1.7	+0.8	+1.9	+1.0
Ivica Zubac	24	−0.1	−0.3	+2.6	+1.6	−1.4	+3.1	+1.2	+0.4	+1.0	−0.1
Jarace Walker	17	−3.6	−2.4	−3.3	−2.5	−3.1	−4.4	−1.2	−3.6	−4.3	−2.7
Obi Toppin	25	+1.6	+3.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.5	+1.8	+1.9	+0.8	+0.8
Aaron Nesmith	20	+0.3	−3.4	+0.5	−0.1	−1.9	+0.5	+0.4	−1.5	+0.6	−0.9
Kelly Oubre Jr.	20	−2.3	−1.4	−1.0	−0.3	−1.7	−1.1	−2.1	−1.9	−1.9	−2.4
Quenton Jackson	17	+0.6	−1.8	−1.2	−0.4	−1.6	−1.0	−0.9	+0.2	+0.1	−1.2
Jalen Slawson	16	−0.8	−0.4	−3.7	−0.2	−0.1	−3.9	+0.3	−0.7	−3.5	−0.2
Jay Huff	5	−0.7	+0.4	−1.8	−0.2	+0.4	−2.5	+0.6	+1.3	−1.3	−0.4
Kobe Brown	1	−3.9	−2.7	−3.5	−1.2	−2.8	−4.0	−2.0	−1.5	−4.7	−2.9
Larry Nance Jr.	1	−2.4	−3.4	−1.8	−2.0	−1.9	−1.4	+0.5	−2.7	−3.3	−1.4
Team rating	239	−1.2	−3.8	−1.3	−1.4	−7.1	−1.8	−0.7	−2.8	−3.3	−3.2