ATL @ CHA, Fri, Oct 23 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 23·ATL @ CHA·Fri, Oct 23·10 of 10 right

AtlantaHawks

128◂

CharlotteHornets

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	ATL	CHA	pred	pick	miss
Final			−47	ATL
LOKI †	+2.4	−4.8	−7.2	ATL	39.8	✓
BPM	0.0	−0.4	−0.4	ATL	46.6	✓
EPM projection	+1.1	−2.0	−3.1	ATL	43.9	✓
DARKO	+1.0	−3.0	−4.0	ATL	43.0	✓
OpenRAPM	−1.2	−1.7	−0.4	ATL	46.6	✓
EPM	−0.8	−2.8	−2.0	ATL	45.0	✓
xPM	+1.2	−2.3	−3.4	ATL	43.6	✓
Pulse	0.0	−0.5	−0.5	ATL	46.5	✓
xRAPM	−0.1	−0.5	−0.4	ATL	46.6	✓
LEBRON	−0.6	−1.5	−1.0	ATL	46.0	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

ATL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.34
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	27	÷	48.2	=	+1.28
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	23	÷	48.2	=	+2.31
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	22	÷	48.2	=	+0.80
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	22	÷	48.2	=	+0.22
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	25	÷	48.2	=	−1.04
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	22	÷	48.2	=	−0.03
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−0.75
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	18	÷	48.2	=	−0.35
Corey Kispert	−2.49	×	10	÷	48.2	=	−0.52
Zuby Ejiofor	−2.00	×	8	÷	48.2	=	−0.33
Dorian Finney-Smith	−0.70	×	8	÷	48.2	=	−0.12
Asa Newell	−2.56	×	8	÷	48.2	=	−0.43
ATL team rating (sum)			241				+2.39

CHA	rating		min		48.4		adds
Naz Reid	+1.19	×	25	÷	48.4	=	+0.61
Sion James	−1.70	×	24	÷	48.4	=	−0.84
Brandon Miller	+1.67	×	23	÷	48.4	=	+0.80
Moussa Diabaté	+3.33	×	21	÷	48.4	=	+1.44
Dennis Schröder	−2.00	×	20	÷	48.4	=	−0.83
Tidjane Salaün	−3.12	×	23	÷	48.4	=	−1.48
Grayson Allen	−0.79	×	20	÷	48.4	=	−0.33
Ryan Kalkbrenner	−1.37	×	19	÷	48.4	=	−0.54
Royce O'Neale	−3.24	×	17	÷	48.4	=	−1.14
Christian Anderson	−2.00	×	16	÷	48.4	=	−0.66
Liam McNeeley	−3.89	×	12	÷	48.4	=	−0.96
Hannes Steinbach	−2.00	×	12	÷	48.4	=	−0.50
PJ Hall	−2.00	×	10	÷	48.4	=	−0.41
CHA team rating (sum)			242				−4.84

predicted margin = CHA − ATL = −4.84 − (+2.39) = −7.23 → pick ATL

final margin = 81 − 128 = −47 → won ATL ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jalen Johnson	29	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	27	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Dyson Daniels	23	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
Onyeka Okongwu	22	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
CJ McCollum	22	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Kingston Flemings	25	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0

CHA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Naz Reid	25	+1.2	+0.9	+0.8	+0.7	+0.3	+0.7	+0.6	+1.6	+2.0	+1.1
Sion James	24	−1.7	−2.0	−0.1	−1.4	+0.2	−0.2	−1.6	−0.8	+1.5	−0.3
Brandon Miller	23	+1.7	+1.6	+2.4	+1.2	+2.4	+1.6	+1.8	+2.8	+3.8	+1.3
Moussa Diabaté	21	+3.3	+1.7	+2.0	+1.2	+4.0	+2.3	+3.9	+3.0	+0.7	+1.8
Dennis Schröder	20	−2.0	−2.2	−1.4	−2.5	−2.9	−1.6	−2.3	−1.5	−1.9	−0.9
Tidjane Salaün	23	−3.1	−0.8	−3.0	−1.8	−2.3	−3.0	−2.5	−2.6	−1.6	−1.2
Grayson Allen	20	−0.8	+2.1	+0.8	+0.9	−0.1	+1.0	−0.1	+0.8	+0.3	+0.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner	19	−1.4	+1.8	+0.3	+0.4	+0.7	−0.7	+1.7	+1.3	−0.5	−0.5
Royce O'Neale	17	−3.2	+0.7	−2.0	−1.5	−1.2	−2.4	−1.3	−1.2	−1.7	−2.1
Christian Anderson	16	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Liam McNeeley	12	−3.9	−1.3	−2.1	−1.5	−2.9	−1.8	−3.0	−2.3	−2.4	−0.4
Hannes Steinbach	12	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
PJ Hall	10	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	242	−4.8	−0.4	−2.0	−3.0	−1.7	−2.8	−2.3	−0.5	−0.5	−1.5