DEN @ OKC, Thu, Oct 22 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 22·DEN @ OKC·Thu, Oct 22·10 of 10 right

DenverNuggets

Oklahoma CityThunder

96▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DEN	OKC	pred	pick	miss
Final			+12	OKC
LOKI †	+9.7	+17.1	+7.3	OKC	4.7	✓
BPM	+11.2	+15.8	+4.6	OKC	7.4	✓
EPM projection	+9.0	+16.0	+7.0	OKC	5.0	✓
DARKO	+6.5	+11.1	+4.6	OKC	7.4	✓
OpenRAPM	+3.9	+12.6	+8.7	OKC	3.3	✓
EPM	+8.0	+15.7	+7.8	OKC	4.3	✓
xPM	+5.1	+14.1	+9.0	OKC	3.0	✓
Pulse	+6.1	+11.0	+4.8	OKC	7.2	✓
xRAPM	+6.1	+18.2	+12.1	OKC	0.1	✓
LEBRON	+3.8	+12.2	+8.4	OKC	3.6	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DEN	rating		min		48		adds
Jamal Murray	+3.02	×	37	÷	48	=	+2.33
Nikola Jokić	+11.38	×	35	÷	48	=	+8.30
Christian Braun	+0.44	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.30
Aaron Gordon	+1.58	×	29	÷	48	=	+0.96
Cameron Johnson	+0.94	×	11	÷	48	=	+0.21
DeMar DeRozan	−0.78	×	28	÷	48	=	−0.45
Alpha Diallo	−2.00	×	22	÷	48	=	−0.92
Trevon Brazile	−2.00	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.75
Marvin Bagley III	+0.68	×	11	÷	48	=	+0.16
Tyus Jones	−1.02	×	10	÷	48	=	−0.21
DaRon Holmes II	−2.00	×	2	÷	48	=	−0.08
Bryce Hopkins	−2.00	×	2	÷	48	=	−0.08
Ryan Nembhard	−0.16	×	2	÷	48	=	−0.01
DEN team rating (sum)			240				+9.75

OKC	rating		min		48.4		adds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+12.67	×	35	÷	48.4	=	+9.16
Jalen Williams	+2.02	×	33	÷	48.4	=	+1.38
Chet Holmgren	+6.06	×	28	÷	48.4	=	+3.51
Cason Wallace	+1.04	×	24	÷	48.4	=	+0.52
Isaiah Hartenstein	+3.01	×	23	÷	48.4	=	+1.43
Ajay Mitchell	+2.07	×	23	÷	48.4	=	+0.99
Alex Caruso	+2.55	×	20	÷	48.4	=	+1.05
Jared McCain	−0.99	×	18	÷	48.4	=	−0.37
Jaylin Williams	+0.73	×	15	÷	48.4	=	+0.23
Aday Mara	−2.00	×	13	÷	48.4	=	−0.54
Kenrich Williams	+0.45	×	6	÷	48.4	=	+0.06
Brooks Barnhizer	−5.86	×	2	÷	48.4	=	−0.24
Bennett Stirtz	−2.00	×	2	÷	48.4	=	−0.08
OKC team rating (sum)			242				+17.08

predicted margin = OKC − DEN = +17.08 − (+9.75) = +7.33 → pick OKC

final margin = 96 − 84 = +12 → won OKC ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DEN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Jamal Murray	37	+3.0	+4.1	+3.8	+3.5	+2.4	+2.9	+1.3	+2.3	+0.9	+1.4
Nikola Jokić	35	+11.4	+14.2	+9.4	+7.1	+7.3	+8.4	+8.7	+8.9	+8.1	+7.4
Christian Braun	33	+0.4	−1.2	+0.5	+0.6	−0.4	+0.3	+0.9	−0.2	+0.8	−0.3
Aaron Gordon	29	+1.6	+1.7	+1.5	+3.0	−0.4	+2.1	+1.6	+2.0	+3.7	+0.6
Cameron Johnson	11	+0.9	−0.6	+1.6	+0.3	−0.3	+1.8	+0.8	+0.4	+1.9	+0.6
DeMar DeRozan	28	−0.8	−0.1	+0.4	−1.9	+0.1	+0.5	−2.6	−1.1	−2.0	−1.2
Alpha Diallo	22	−2.0	−2.0

OKC	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	35	+12.7	+11.7	+10.0	+6.0	+6.9	+8.9	+6.4	+5.8	+9.3	+6.7
Jalen Williams	33	+2.0	+2.1	+3.3	+2.2	+0.7	+3.2	+2.8	+1.4	+1.9	+1.6
Chet Holmgren	28	+6.1	+4.2	+5.5	+4.0	+4.5	+5.6	+5.7	+4.6	+5.3	+5.1
Cason Wallace	24	+1.0	+1.2	+1.6	+1.8	+3.9	+1.3	+1.3	+2.3	+2.5	+2.2
Isaiah Hartenstein	23	+3.0	+4.2	+3.3	+3.1	+3.5	+4.3	+4.2	+3.3	+3.3	+3.6
Ajay Mitchell	23	+2.1	+1.9	+3.2	+1.3	+2.5	+3.2	+1.8	+2.3	+4.6	+2.4
Alex Caruso	20	+2.5	+1.9	+1.8	+2.2	+4.0	+3.2	+3.4	+2.2	+4.4	+2.3
Jared McCain	18	−1.0	−2.4	−1.8	−1.5	−3.2	−2.9	−1.4	−2.9	+0.1	−2.7
Jaylin Williams	15	+0.7	+2.7	+1.0	+1.0	+0.8	+1.2	+1.9	+1.2	+3.8	+1.0
Aday Mara	13	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Kenrich Williams	6	+0.5	+0.2	−1.0	+0.3	−1.4	−0.6	+0.2	−1.0	−0.7	−0.8
Brooks Barnhizer	2	−5.9	−3.1	−5.3	−2.7	−3.0	−6.7	−2.7	−3.7	−5.4	−2.6
Bennett Stirtz	2	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	242	+17.1	+15.8	+16.0	+11.1	+12.6	+15.7	+14.1	+11.0	+18.2	+12.2