MIN @ MIA, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·MIN @ MIA·Wed, Oct 21·2 of 10 right

MinnesotaTimberwolves

131◂

MiamiHeat

106

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	MIN	MIA	pred	pick	miss
Final			−25	MIN
LOKI †	+3.5	+4.3	+0.8	MIA	25.8	✗
BPM	+3.5	+3.8	+0.3	MIA	25.3	✗
EPM projection	+4.6	+4.6	+0.02	MIA	25.0	✗
DARKO	+4.9	+3.0	−1.9	MIN	23.1	✓
OpenRAPM	0.0	+1.2	+1.2	MIA	26.2	✗
EPM	+2.4	+4.8	+2.4	MIA	27.4	✗
xPM	+5.0	+2.1	−3.0	MIN	22.0	✓
Pulse	+1.6	+3.4	+1.8	MIA	26.8	✗
xRAPM	+1.7	+3.3	+1.7	MIA	26.7	✗
LEBRON	+0.3	+2.3	+2.0	MIA	26.9	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

MIN	rating		min		48.2		adds
Rudy Gobert	+1.28	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+0.88
Anthony Edwards	+4.51	×	33	÷	48.2	=	+3.09
Jonathan Kuminga	+1.67	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+1.04
Jaden McDaniels	−0.09	×	29	÷	48.2	=	−0.05
LaMelo Ball	+3.23	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.94
Ayo Dosunmu	−1.41	×	29	÷	48.2	=	−0.85
Terrence Shannon Jr	−3.15	×	20	÷	48.2	=	−1.31
Joan Beringer	−0.99	×	14	÷	48.2	=	−0.29
Trey Lyles	−2.00	×	12	÷	48.2	=	−0.50
Bones Hyland	−0.09	×	4	÷	48.2	=	−0.01
Jaylen Clark	−0.43	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.03
Cody Williams	−4.56	×	3	÷	48.2	=	−0.28
Isaiah Evans	−2.00	×	2	÷	48.2	=	−0.08
MIN team rating (sum)			241				+3.55

MIA	rating		min		48		adds
Davion Mitchell	+1.17	×	33	÷	48	=	+0.81
Bam Adebayo	+3.82	×	31	÷	48	=	+2.47
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+8.65	×	30	÷	48	=	+5.41
Andrew Wiggins	−1.55	×	27	÷	48	=	−0.87
Klay Thompson	−3.27	×	16	÷	48	=	−1.09
Bobby Portis Jr.	−0.85	×	25	÷	48	=	−0.44
Nikola Jović	−0.93	×	24	÷	48	=	−0.47
Pelle Larsson	+0.10	×	24	÷	48	=	+0.05
Tim Hardaway Jr.	−2.79	×	18	÷	48	=	−1.04
Ryan Conwell	−2.00	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.12
Simone Fontecchio	−0.78	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.05
Myron Gardner	−1.74	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.11
Nick Richards	−3.56	×	3	÷	48	=	−0.22
MIA team rating (sum)			240				+4.30

predicted margin = MIA − MIN = +4.30 − (+3.55) = +0.76 → pick MIA

final margin = 106 − 131 = −25 → won MIN ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

MIN	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Rudy Gobert	33	+1.3	+1.0	+2.3	+2.6	+3.1	+2.5	+3.5	+2.4	+2.2	+1.8
Anthony Edwards	33	+4.5	+4.5	+3.9	+4.5	+1.0	+2.3	+2.9	+1.7	+1.9	+1.3
Jonathan Kuminga	30	+1.7	−2.0	−1.0	−0.7	−1.7	−1.0	+1.3	−1.0	+1.1	−0.4
Jaden McDaniels	29	−0.1	−0.3	+1.3	+0.6	−0.1	+0.9	+0.5	0.0	+0.9	−1.2
LaMelo Ball	29	+3.2	+4.7	+5.1	+3.1	+2.9	+4.5	+2.8	+3.7	+2.7	+2.8
Ayo Dosunmu	29	−1.4	+1.0	−0.5	−0.4	−1.4	−1.0	−0.2	−0.9	−1.4	−1.2
Terrence Shannon Jr	20	−3.2	−3.6	−1.5	−1.8	−3.6	−1.6

MIA	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Davion Mitchell	33	+1.2	−0.9	+1.1	+0.4	+1.4	+1.4	−1.3	+0.2	+1.8	−0.1
Bam Adebayo	31	+3.8	+2.0	+3.4	+3.4	+4.1	+4.2	+4.2	+4.3	+2.7	+3.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo	30	+8.6	+9.5	+7.9	+5.4	+4.8	+8.3	+6.4	+6.5	+5.7	+5.1
Andrew Wiggins	27	−1.6	+1.2	−0.9	−0.6	+0.3	−1.1	−0.6	+0.3	−1.7	+0.4
Klay Thompson	16	−3.3	−1.4	−1.5	−1.4	−4.3	−1.5	−2.7	−2.8	−1.0	−2.5
Bobby Portis Jr.	25	−0.9	0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−3.3	−2.3	−1.2	−1.9	−2.4	−2.3
Nikola Jović	24	−0.9	−3.5	−2.0	−1.3	−2.3	−2.3	+0.2	−2.6	0.0	−1.5
Pelle Larsson	24	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.4	−0.2	+0.3	+1.4	+0.1
Tim Hardaway Jr.	18	−2.8	−0.7	−1.0	−1.0	−2.5	−0.8	−3.7	−1.1	−1.7	−1.1
Ryan Conwell	3	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Simone Fontecchio	3	−0.8	+0.5	−0.9	−0.1	−1.4	−0.5	−1.3	−0.4	+0.3	−0.4
Myron Gardner	3	−1.7	+0.9	−1.4	−0.7	−0.5	−1.7	−1.4	+0.6	−2.3	+0.5
Nick Richards	3	−3.6	−6.1	−2.2	−2.0	−3.2	−2.5	−3.3	−3.3	−7.8	−1.7
Team rating	240	+4.3	+3.8	+4.6	+3.0	+1.2	+4.8	+2.1	+3.4	+3.3	+2.3