MIL @ WAS, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·MIL @ WAS·Wed, Oct 21·8 of 10 right

MilwaukeeBucks

116

WashingtonWizards

128▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	MIL	WAS	pred	pick	miss
Final			+12	WAS
LOKI †	−2.9	0.0	+2.9	WAS	9.1	✓
BPM	−3.5	−3.0	+0.5	WAS	11.6	✓
EPM projection	−3.3	0.0	+3.3	WAS	8.7	✓
DARKO	−3.2	−3.8	−0.7	MIL	12.7	✗
OpenRAPM	−4.7	−3.2	+1.5	WAS	10.5	✓
EPM	−6.5	−2.2	+4.3	WAS	7.7	✓
xPM	−2.4	0.0	+2.4	WAS	9.6	✓
Pulse	−4.9	−2.0	+2.9	WAS	9.1	✓
xRAPM	−6.0	−6.7	−0.7	MIL	12.7	✗
LEBRON	−4.8	−4.7	+0.04	WAS	12.0	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

MIL	rating		min		48		adds
Myles Turner	+0.07	×	32	÷	48	=	+0.04
Tyler Herro	+1.72	×	32	÷	48	=	+1.15
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	−0.26	×	31	÷	48	=	−0.17
Kyle Kuzma	−3.89	×	27	÷	48	=	−2.19
Ryan Rollins	+2.61	×	24	÷	48	=	+1.31
Kasparas Jakučionis	−1.35	×	26	÷	48	=	−0.73
Ousmane Dieng	−4.01	×	21	÷	48	=	−1.75
Brayden Burries	−2.00	×	16	÷	48	=	−0.67
AJ Green	−0.35	×	15	÷	48	=	−0.11
Kel'el Ware	+1.11	×	14	÷	48	=	+0.32
Jericho Sims	−3.22	×	2	÷	48	=	−0.13
MIL team rating (sum)			240				−2.94

WAS	rating		min		47.8		adds
Trae Young	+2.22	×	38	÷	47.8	=	+1.76
Anthony Davis	+3.28	×	34	÷	47.8	=	+2.33
Bilal Coulibaly	−1.32	×	29	÷	47.8	=	−0.80
Kyshawn George	−0.64	×	29	÷	47.8	=	−0.39
Alex Sarr	+0.35	×	24	÷	47.8	=	+0.18
Justin Champagnie	+1.40	×	21	÷	47.8	=	+0.62
Tre Johnson	−2.40	×	19	÷	47.8	=	−0.95
Bub Carrington	−4.20	×	18	÷	47.8	=	−1.58
Deandre Ayton	−1.24	×	15	÷	47.8	=	−0.39
Khris Middleton	−3.21	×	12	÷	47.8	=	−0.81
WAS team rating (sum)			239				−0.04

predicted margin = WAS − MIL = −0.04 − (−2.94) = +2.90 → pick WAS

final margin = 128 − 116 = +12 → won WAS ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

MIL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Myles Turner	32	+0.1	−0.9	+0.1	+0.2	+0.5	0.0	+1.5	+0.6	−1.7	+0.1
Tyler Herro	32	+1.7	+2.0	+1.5	+1.1	−1.9	+0.7	−0.3	−0.4	−0.8	−0.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	31	−0.3	+0.1	−0.1	−0.2	−1.0	−1.3	0.0	−1.0	−0.6	−1.5
Kyle Kuzma	27	−3.9	−2.3	−2.6	−3.6	−2.2	−3.0	−2.5	−1.7	−4.2	−2.0
Ryan Rollins	24	+2.6	+0.2	+0.7	+1.5	+1.5	−1.0	+1.8	+0.1	+1.8	−0.7
Kasparas Jakučionis	26	−1.3	−0.4	−0.7	−0.4	0.0	−1.1	−1.6	−1.3	−0.6	−0.8
Ousmane Dieng	21	−4.0	−3.8	−4.2	−3.2	−3.9	−5.2

WAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Trae Young	38	+2.2	+2.8	+2.6	+1.2	+0.1	+2.9	+0.9	+1.8	−0.5	+0.9
Anthony Davis	34	+3.3	+2.4	+2.8	+2.2	+1.1	+3.0	+3.3	+2.5	+1.3	+1.6
Bilal Coulibaly	29	−1.3	−2.1	−1.1	−1.8	+0.3	−1.8	−0.9	−0.7	−1.2	−1.7
Kyshawn George	29	−0.6	−1.2	−0.2	−2.1	−0.7	−0.9	0.0	0.0	−0.7	−1.1
Alex Sarr	24	+0.4	+0.7	−1.1	−2.2	+0.6	−1.7	+0.8	−0.4	−3.4	−0.3
Justin Champagnie	21	+1.4	−0.4	−0.7	−0.1	−0.3	−1.5	+0.7	−1.2	−0.9	−0.9
Tre Johnson	19	−2.4	−5.0	−2.1	−2.8	−4.0	−3.2	−2.8	−4.1	−1.1	−4.4
Bub Carrington	18	−4.2	−4.7	−2.9	−3.9	−4.0	−4.2	−4.4	−4.7	−4.6	−5.6
Deandre Ayton	15	−1.2	−0.9	−0.3	+0.5	−0.5	−0.8	−0.7	−0.7	−4.0	−0.3
Khris Middleton	12	−3.2	−4.4	−1.4	−1.9	−2.7	−1.6	−1.0	−1.9	−2.3	−1.4
Team rating	239	0.0	−3.0	0.0	−3.8	−3.2	−2.2	0.0	−2.0	−6.7	−4.7