GSW @ LAL, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·GSW @ LAL·Wed, Oct 21·10 of 10 right

Golden StateWarriors

105

Los AngelesLakers

127▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	GSW	LAL	pred	pick	miss
Final			+22	LAL
LOKI †	−1.5	+5.0	+6.5	LAL	15.5	✓
BPM	−2.9	+5.5	+8.3	LAL	13.7	✓
EPM projection	−2.6	+2.5	+5.1	LAL	16.9	✓
DARKO	−1.1	+2.5	+3.7	LAL	18.3	✓
OpenRAPM	−1.7	+1.8	+3.5	LAL	18.5	✓
EPM	−3.1	−0.2	+2.9	LAL	19.1	✓
xPM	−3.2	+3.7	+6.8	LAL	15.2	✓
Pulse	−2.8	+4.6	+7.4	LAL	14.6	✓
xRAPM	−4.0	+3.3	+7.2	LAL	14.8	✓
LEBRON	−0.6	+1.6	+2.2	LAL	19.8	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

GSW	rating		min		48		adds
Yaxel Lendeborg	−2.00	×	29	÷	48	=	−1.21
Gui Santos	+1.52	×	25	÷	48	=	+0.79
Draymond Green	−1.43	×	21	÷	48	=	−0.62
De'Anthony Melton	+1.01	×	21	÷	48	=	+0.44
Stephen Curry	+4.83	×	21	÷	48	=	+2.11
Georges Niang	−2.00	×	20	÷	48	=	−0.83
Will Richard	−1.59	×	20	÷	48	=	−0.66
Gary Payton II	+0.95	×	18	÷	48	=	+0.36
Brandon Williams	−0.16	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.06
Al Horford	−0.26	×	17	÷	48	=	−0.09
Graham Ike	−2.00	×	12	÷	48	=	−0.50
LJ Cryer	−3.10	×	9	÷	48	=	−0.58
Malevy Leons	−3.52	×	9	÷	48	=	−0.66
GSW team rating (sum)			240				−1.52

LAL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Austin Reaves	+2.82	×	32	÷	48.2	=	+1.87
Walker Kessler	−2.00	×	30	÷	48.2	=	−1.24
Luka Dončić	+7.57	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+4.71
Ziaire Williams	−1.36	×	24	÷	48.2	=	−0.68
Matisse Thybulle	+2.03	×	23	÷	48.2	=	+0.97
Quentin Grimes	−0.14	×	27	÷	48.2	=	−0.08
Sandro Mamukelashvili	+1.86	×	22	÷	48.2	=	+0.85
Jake LaRavia	−0.78	×	18	÷	48.2	=	−0.29
Kevon Looney	−0.54	×	15	÷	48.2	=	−0.17
Jaden Hardy	−2.05	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.30
Bronny James	−2.91	×	7	÷	48.2	=	−0.42
Chris Mañon	−2.00	×	6	÷	48.2	=	−0.25
LAL team rating (sum)			241				+4.97

predicted margin = LAL − GSW = +4.97 − (−1.52) = +6.49 → pick LAL

final margin = 127 − 105 = +22 → won LAL ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

GSW	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Yaxel Lendeborg	29	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Gui Santos	25	+1.5	−0.6	+0.2	+0.8	+0.3	−0.2	+1.5	+0.6	+0.6	+0.1
Draymond Green	21	−1.4	−1.4	+0.2	0.0	−0.4	−0.2	−0.4	−0.6	−1.5	−0.7
De'Anthony Melton	21	+1.0	−2.5	−0.2	+1.2	+1.2	−0.6	+1.4	+0.7	−0.2	+0.6
Stephen Curry	21	+4.8	+5.4	+5.2	+2.8	+1.9	+5.9	+1.7	+2.4	+3.6	+3.1
Georges Niang	20

LAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Austin Reaves	32	+2.8	+2.8	+3.6	+1.9	+0.7	+3.2	+2.4	+3.9	+2.6	+2.4
Walker Kessler	30	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Luka Dončić	30	+7.6	+9.3	+8.3	+5.1	+5.3	+6.9	+5.6	+6.1	+6.0	+5.2
Ziaire Williams	24	−1.4	−1.7	−1.3	−1.1	−0.4	−1.6	−1.2	−0.5	−1.0	−1.2
Matisse Thybulle	23	+2.0	+4.4	−1.4	+0.8	+2.7	−1.4	−0.1	+2.3	−0.4	+0.8
Quentin Grimes	27	−0.1	−1.6	−0.9	−0.9	−1.7	−2.1	0.0	0.0	−0.2	−1.5
Sandro Mamukelashvili	22	+1.9	+2.8	+0.2	+1.5	+0.9	−0.5	+2.5	+1.1	+2.2	+1.6
Jake LaRavia	18	−0.8	−1.2	−1.3	+0.3	+1.4	−2.1	−0.2	−0.4	+0.2	−1.2
Kevon Looney	15	−0.5	−1.8	−0.2	−0.3	−0.9	+0.7	+1.1	−1.5	−0.6	−0.4
Jaden Hardy	7	−2.0	−4.8	−3.6	−1.5	−4.7	−4.1	−1.8	−2.3	−1.7	−2.4
Bronny James	7	−2.9	−4.3	−5.7	−1.2	−3.9	−7.6	−2.8	−4.5	−3.8	−3.0
Chris Mañon	6	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	241	+5.0	+5.5	+2.5	+2.5	+1.8	−0.2	+3.7	+4.6	+3.3	+1.6