DAL @ HOU, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·DAL @ HOU·Wed, Oct 21·10 of 10 right

DallasMavericks

110

HoustonRockets

128▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	DAL	HOU	pred	pick	miss
Final			+18	HOU
LOKI †	−2.8	+7.0	+9.7	HOU	8.3	✓
BPM	−5.2	+4.6	+9.8	HOU	8.2	✓
EPM projection	−3.3	+7.5	+10.9	HOU	7.1	✓
DARKO	−5.9	+5.4	+11.4	HOU	6.6	✓
OpenRAPM	−4.7	+2.1	+6.8	HOU	11.2	✓
EPM	−6.6	+5.6	+12.2	HOU	5.8	✓
xPM	−2.8	+4.4	+7.2	HOU	10.8	✓
Pulse	−5.3	+4.1	+9.4	HOU	8.6	✓
xRAPM	−5.1	+6.0	+11.0	HOU	7.0	✓
LEBRON	−5.1	+2.1	+7.2	HOU	10.8	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

DAL	rating		min		48.4		adds
Cooper Flagg	+1.67	×	33	÷	48.4	=	+1.14
P.J. Washington	−0.20	×	31	÷	48.4	=	−0.13
Max Christie	−0.64	×	29	÷	48.4	=	−0.39
Kyrie Irving	−2.00	×	24	÷	48.4	=	−0.99
Daniel Gafford	+0.98	×	22	÷	48.4	=	+0.44
Naji Marshall	−0.36	×	29	÷	48.4	=	−0.21
Zaccharie Risacher	−2.85	×	27	÷	48.4	=	−1.59
Marcus Sasser	−0.26	×	24	÷	48.4	=	−0.13
Morez Johnson Jr.	−2.00	×	14	÷	48.4	=	−0.58
Sergio de Larrea	−2.00	×	7	÷	48.4	=	−0.29
Moussa Cisse	−0.94	×	2	÷	48.4	=	−0.04
DAL team rating (sum)			242				−2.76

HOU	rating		min		47.8		adds
Kevin Durant	+3.32	×	37	÷	47.8	=	+2.57
Jabari Smith Jr.	+0.37	×	36	÷	47.8	=	+0.28
Amen Thompson	+4.66	×	33	÷	47.8	=	+3.22
Alperen Sengun	+2.59	×	30	÷	47.8	=	+1.62
Fred VanVleet	−2.00	×	30	÷	47.8	=	−1.26
Marcus Smart	+1.70	×	26	÷	47.8	=	+0.92
Reed Sheppard	−1.20	×	16	÷	47.8	=	−0.40
Bogdan Bogdanović	−0.40	×	13	÷	47.8	=	−0.11
Clint Capela	+1.79	×	8	÷	47.8	=	+0.30
Tari Eason	+1.94	×	3	÷	47.8	=	+0.12
Isaiah Crawford	−2.00	×	3	÷	47.8	=	−0.13
Bruce Thornton	−2.00	×	2	÷	47.8	=	−0.08
Jae'Sean Tate	−2.22	×	2	÷	47.8	=	−0.09
HOU team rating (sum)			239				+6.97

predicted margin = HOU − DAL = +6.97 − (−2.76) = +9.73 → pick HOU

final margin = 128 − 110 = +18 → won HOU ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

DAL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Cooper Flagg	33	+1.7	+1.4	+2.2	−0.3	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+0.6	+0.4	−0.2
P.J. Washington	31	−0.2	−1.6	−0.6	−1.4	−1.1	−1.0	+0.1	−1.0	−1.5	−0.5
Max Christie	29	−0.6	−1.5	−1.4	−1.4	−2.0	−2.1	−1.8	−1.7	−1.7	−2.1
Kyrie Irving	24	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Daniel Gafford	22	+1.0	+0.7	+1.5	−0.3	+1.2	+1.3	+1.7	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8
Naji Marshall	29

HOU	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Kevin Durant	37	+3.3	+4.5	+4.2	+3.8	+1.4	+4.2	+1.8	+3.8	+2.2	+2.4
Jabari Smith Jr.	36	+0.4	−0.7	+1.4	+0.5	−0.3	+0.9	−0.6	−0.3	+1.2	+0.8
Amen Thompson	33	+4.7	+2.6	+3.7	+1.4	+2.5	+2.9	+3.6	+2.8	+3.8	+2.0
Alperen Sengun	30	+2.6	+4.2	+2.8	+2.3	+1.6	+1.1	+3.1	+1.4	+0.3	+1.1
Fred VanVleet	30	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Marcus Smart	26	+1.7	−2.2	+1.4	+1.3	+1.6	+2.0	+0.4	+1.8	+3.6	+0.5
Reed Sheppard	16	−1.2	+2.7	−0.1	+0.9	−0.1	−1.7	+0.6	−1.2	+0.1	−1.8
Bogdan Bogdanović	13	−0.4	−3.1	−1.0	−0.3	−3.2	−0.6	−0.6	−2.0	−1.0	−1.8
Clint Capela	8	+1.8	+0.4	+0.8	+1.2	+0.7	+1.3	+0.9	+1.3	+1.4	−0.3
Tari Eason	3	+1.9	−1.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	−0.8	+1.7	−0.7	+1.8	+0.1
Isaiah Crawford	3	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Bruce Thornton	2	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Jae'Sean Tate	2	−2.2	−3.9	−2.6	−1.9	−2.9	−2.2	−0.9	−3.5	−1.6	−3.1
Team rating	239	+7.0	+4.6	+7.5	+5.4	+2.1	+5.6	+4.4	+4.1	+6.0	+2.1