CHI @ TOR, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·CHI @ TOR·Wed, Oct 21·10 of 10 right

ChicagoBulls

TorontoRaptors

135▸

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	CHI	TOR	pred	pick	miss
Final			+43	TOR
LOKI †	−2.1	+6.4	+8.5	TOR	34.5	✓
BPM	−4.1	+6.2	+10.3	TOR	32.8	✓
EPM projection	−3.6	+6.7	+10.4	TOR	32.6	✓
DARKO	−4.0	+5.7	+9.7	TOR	33.4	✓
OpenRAPM	−4.8	+4.3	+9.2	TOR	33.8	✓
EPM	−5.6	+4.9	+10.5	TOR	32.5	✓
xPM	−2.2	+5.1	+7.3	TOR	35.7	✓
Pulse	−5.1	+4.7	+9.7	TOR	33.3	✓
xRAPM	−4.4	+4.4	+8.8	TOR	34.2	✓
LEBRON	−4.1	+3.8	+7.9	TOR	35.1	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

CHI	rating		min		48		adds
Caleb Wilson	−2.00	×	32	÷	48	=	−1.33
Matas Buzelis	−0.78	×	25	÷	48	=	−0.40
Josh Giddey	+2.20	×	24	÷	48	=	+1.10
Norman Powell	−0.04	×	22	÷	48	=	−0.02
Jalen Smith	+2.64	×	19	÷	48	=	+1.04
Leonard Miller	+0.06	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.03
Isaac Okoro	−1.49	×	18	÷	48	=	−0.56
Buddy Hield	−2.19	×	14	÷	48	=	−0.64
Tobe Awaka	−2.00	×	14	÷	48	=	−0.58
Jaylin Sellers	−2.00	×	14	÷	48	=	−0.58
Tre Jones	+2.32	×	13	÷	48	=	+0.63
Noa Essengue	−2.00	×	10	÷	48	=	−0.42
Zach Collins	−2.00	×	9	÷	48	=	−0.37
CHI team rating (sum)			240				−2.11

TOR	rating		min		48		adds
Immanuel Quickley	+2.31	×	28	÷	48	=	+1.35
Scottie Barnes	+2.99	×	26	÷	48	=	+1.62
RJ Barrett	+1.59	×	26	÷	48	=	+0.86
Kawhi Leonard	+8.45	×	24	÷	48	=	+4.22
Jakob Poeltl	+1.56	×	22	÷	48	=	+0.71
Ja'Kobe Walter	−0.92	×	23	÷	48	=	−0.44
Collin Murray-Boyles	+0.15	×	20	÷	48	=	+0.06
Allen Graves	−2.00	×	19	÷	48	=	−0.79
Jamal Shead	+0.80	×	16	÷	48	=	+0.27
Jamison Battle	−3.03	×	11	÷	48	=	−0.69
Trayce Jackson-Davis	−1.16	×	10	÷	48	=	−0.24
Kyle Anderson	−1.29	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.13
Jaden Bradley	−2.00	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.21
Alijah Martin	−2.00	×	5	÷	48	=	−0.21
TOR team rating (sum)			240				+6.37

predicted margin = TOR − CHI = +6.37 − (−2.11) = +8.48 → pick TOR

final margin = 135 − 92 = +43 → won TOR ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

CHI	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Caleb Wilson	32	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Matas Buzelis	25	−0.8	−1.0	−0.3	−1.2	0.0	−2.0	+0.5	−0.5	−2.6	−0.8
Josh Giddey	24	+2.2	+2.7	+1.6	+0.1	+0.1	+0.9	+1.7	+0.1	+0.6	+0.5
Norman Powell	22	0.0	+1.6	+1.1	+0.8	+0.2	+1.0	−1.2	+0.4	+1.4	+0.6
Jalen Smith	19	+2.6	−0.7	+1.9	+1.3	+0.9	+2.4	+1.9	+1.4	+2.4	+1.3
Leonard Miller	26

TOR	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Immanuel Quickley	28	+2.3	+2.4	+2.2	+1.1	+0.4	+1.6	+2.4	+0.8	+1.8	+2.3
Scottie Barnes	26	+3.0	+4.2	+3.6	+3.0	+3.8	+2.8	+3.2	+4.5	+2.7	+3.0
RJ Barrett	26	+1.6	+0.2	+2.2	+1.1	+0.6	+2.4	−0.7	+0.9	+0.1	+1.2
Kawhi Leonard	24	+8.4	+8.0	+7.5	+6.5	+5.7	+7.1	+4.3	+5.9	+5.0	+5.0
Jakob Poeltl	22	+1.6	+1.6	+1.3	+2.5	+1.0	+1.3	+2.7	+1.6	+0.8	−0.2
Ja'Kobe Walter	23	−0.9	−0.3	−1.3	−0.4	+0.2	−2.1	−0.2	−1.4	+0.4	−0.8
Collin Murray-Boyles	20	+0.2	+1.0	+2.0	+1.1	+1.8	+0.5	+2.9	+0.3	+0.6	+0.6
Allen Graves	19	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Jamal Shead	16	+0.8	−2.3	+1.0	+0.2	−0.2	+1.2	−1.0	+0.1	+1.1	+0.2
Jamison Battle	11	−3.0	−2.6	−3.6	−1.4	−3.3	−3.6	−2.6	−2.5	−0.9	−3.2
Trayce Jackson-Davis	10	−1.2	−0.4	−1.5	−1.4	−1.5	−1.5	+0.4	−1.0	−1.5	−0.6
Kyle Anderson	5	−1.3	+0.4	−2.1	−1.2	−0.6	−1.9	−0.6	+0.2	−1.3	−0.9
Jaden Bradley	5	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Alijah Martin	5	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	240	+6.4	+6.2	+6.7	+5.7	+4.3	+4.9	+5.1	+4.7	+4.4	+3.8