ATL @ ORL, Wed, Oct 21 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 21·ATL @ ORL·Wed, Oct 21·1 of 10 right

AtlantaHawks

132◂

OrlandoMagic

125

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	ATL	ORL	pred	pick	miss
Final			−7	ATL
LOKI †	+5.4	+7.6	+2.2	ORL	9.2	✗
BPM	+2.0	+4.3	+2.4	ORL	9.4	✗
EPM projection	+4.0	+7.2	+3.2	ORL	10.2	✗
DARKO	+3.1	+4.0	+0.8	ORL	7.8	✗
OpenRAPM	+1.6	+1.5	−0.1	ATL	6.9	✓
EPM	+1.9	+3.8	+1.9	ORL	8.9	✗
xPM	+3.4	+5.5	+2.1	ORL	9.1	✗
Pulse	+2.3	+5.0	+2.7	ORL	9.7	✗
xRAPM	+2.4	+5.1	+2.7	ORL	9.7	✗
LEBRON	+1.6	+4.3	+2.8	ORL	9.8	✗

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

ATL	rating		min		48.2		adds
Dyson Daniels	+4.85	×	35	÷	48.2	=	+3.52
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	+2.28	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+1.42
Onyeka Okongwu	+1.76	×	29	÷	48.2	=	+1.06
Jalen Johnson	+2.23	×	28	÷	48.2	=	+1.30
CJ McCollum	+0.48	×	25	÷	48.2	=	+0.25
Aaron Wiggins	−0.06	×	32	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
Luguentz Dort	−1.91	×	28	÷	48.2	=	−1.11
Jock Landale	−0.95	×	19	÷	48.2	=	−0.37
Kingston Flemings	−2.00	×	15	÷	48.2	=	−0.62
ATL team rating (sum)			241				+5.40

ORL	rating		min		47.8		adds
Paolo Banchero	+1.12	×	41	÷	47.8	=	+0.96
Desmond Bane	+2.87	×	33	÷	47.8	=	+1.98
Jalen Suggs	+2.77	×	32	÷	47.8	=	+1.86
Wendell Carter Jr.	+1.48	×	31	÷	47.8	=	+0.96
Franz Wagner	+5.71	×	29	÷	47.8	=	+3.47
Tristan da Silva	−1.24	×	28	÷	47.8	=	−0.72
Jase Richardson	−2.41	×	14	÷	47.8	=	−0.70
Jamal Cain	−1.44	×	14	÷	47.8	=	−0.42
Goga Bitadze	+1.29	×	12	÷	47.8	=	+0.32
Nikola Vučević	−0.78	×	5	÷	47.8	=	−0.08
ORL team rating (sum)			239				+7.62

predicted margin = ORL − ATL = +7.62 − (+5.40) = +2.22 → pick ORL

final margin = 125 − 132 = −7 → won ATL ✗

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

ATL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Dyson Daniels	35	+4.8	+1.3	+3.8	+1.1	+3.4	+3.7	+1.8	+2.3	+3.7	+2.3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	30	+2.3	+1.2	+2.5	+1.4	+0.6	+2.2	+0.6	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Onyeka Okongwu	29	+1.8	+0.7	+1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+0.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.9
Jalen Johnson	28	+2.2	+4.2	+1.5	+0.8	+0.8	+0.2	+2.3	+1.6	+0.7	+1.2
CJ McCollum	25	+0.5	−0.3	+0.5	+1.3	−0.4	+0.1	−1.4	0.0	+1.0	−0.3
Aaron Wiggins	32	−0.1	−0.9	−1.7	+0.6	−1.4	−2.7	+0.9	−1.0	+0.1	−0.3
Luguentz Dort	28	−1.9	−2.0	−0.4	−0.1	−0.5	−0.3

ORL	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Paolo Banchero	41	+1.1	+1.4	+1.7	+1.0	−0.2	+0.3	+1.1	−0.9	−1.3	+0.9
Desmond Bane	33	+2.9	+1.4	+2.8	+0.7	+0.7	+1.9	+2.1	+2.0	+1.7	+1.7
Jalen Suggs	32	+2.8	+2.5	+1.9	+1.8	+2.6	+1.3	+2.7	+3.5	+3.2	+2.2
Wendell Carter Jr.	31	+1.5	−0.6	+1.8	+1.4	+1.4	+1.6	+1.2	+2.4	+1.5	+0.3
Franz Wagner	29	+5.7	+2.5	+5.1	+2.0	+0.5	+4.6	+3.1	+1.9	+4.7	+2.3
Tristan da Silva	28	−1.2	−0.6	−0.6	−0.5	−1.0	−1.3	−1.4	+0.1	+0.6	−0.7
Jase Richardson	14	−2.4	−2.5	−3.2	−1.6	−3.1	−3.8	−2.5	−3.3	−2.9	−2.2
Jamal Cain	14	−1.4	−1.4	−2.6	−0.6	−2.3	−3.0	−1.7	−0.7	−2.9	−0.7
Goga Bitadze	12	+1.3	+2.8	+1.5	+1.2	+1.6	+1.2	+3.1	+1.4	+1.7	+2.2
Nikola Vučević	5	−0.8	+1.5	−0.3	−1.4	−0.6	+0.2	−0.6	+0.9	−0.4	+0.6
Team rating	239	+7.6	+4.3	+7.2	+4.0	+1.5	+3.8	+5.5	+5.0	+5.1	+4.3