OKC @ SAS, Tue, Oct 20 | Hoop Impact Bench

PRESEASON DYNAMIC·← Oct 20·OKC @ SAS·Tue, Oct 20·10 of 10 right

Oklahoma CityThunder

116◂

San AntonioSpurs

104

Predictions

from the players who played

? What this table shows

Team columns: Each team’s rating: the sum of each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48, for the players who played.
Pred: Home team rating − away team rating: the predicted home margin.
Pick: The team with the higher rating. No home-court points.
Miss: Points between predicted and final margin.
SCORE: The game’s actual total, split by the predicted margin.
How it adds up: Click a metric. Each player’s rating × minutes ÷ 48 is what he adds; a team’s adds sum to its rating.

metric	OKC	SAS	pred	pick	miss
Final			−12	OKC
LOKI †	+17.6	+11.5	−6.1	OKC	5.9	✓
BPM	+15.9	+13.1	−2.7	OKC	9.3	✓
EPM projection	+16.1	+14.4	−1.6	OKC	10.3	✓
DARKO	+11.1	+8.7	−2.4	OKC	9.6	✓
OpenRAPM	+12.5	+12.4	−0.1	OKC	11.9	✓
EPM	+15.8	+12.9	−2.9	OKC	9.1	✓
xPM	+14.3	+11.2	−3.1	OKC	8.9	✓
Pulse	+10.9	+9.1	−1.7	OKC	10.3	✓
xRAPM	+18.8	+15.8	−3.0	OKC	9.0	✓
LEBRON	+12.1	+9.1	−3.0	OKC	9.0	✓

LOKI †how it adds upLOKI record →

OKC	rating		min		48.2		adds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+12.67	×	36	÷	48.2	=	+9.46
Chet Holmgren	+6.06	×	31	÷	48.2	=	+3.90
Jalen Williams	+2.02	×	30	÷	48.2	=	+1.26
Cason Wallace	+1.04	×	19	÷	48.2	=	+0.41
Isaiah Hartenstein	+3.01	×	17	÷	48.2	=	+1.06
Alex Caruso	+2.55	×	25	÷	48.2	=	+1.32
Ajay Mitchell	+2.07	×	23	÷	48.2	=	+0.99
Jared McCain	−0.99	×	22	÷	48.2	=	−0.45
Jaylin Williams	+0.73	×	17	÷	48.2	=	+0.26
Aday Mara	−2.00	×	12	÷	48.2	=	−0.50
Kenrich Williams	+0.45	×	7	÷	48.2	=	+0.07
Brooks Barnhizer	−5.86	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.12
Bennett Stirtz	−2.00	×	1	÷	48.2	=	−0.04
OKC team rating (sum)			241				+17.61

SAS	rating		min		47.8		adds
Victor Wembanyama	+10.01	×	34	÷	47.8	=	+7.12
Dylan Harper	+1.55	×	32	÷	47.8	=	+1.04
De'Aaron Fox	+2.44	×	32	÷	47.8	=	+1.63
Devin Vassell	+1.61	×	31	÷	47.8	=	+1.05
Stephon Castle	+1.18	×	28	÷	47.8	=	+0.69
Julian Champagnie	+1.58	×	30	÷	47.8	=	+0.99
Keldon Johnson	−0.41	×	20	÷	47.8	=	−0.17
Luke Kornet	+1.25	×	13	÷	47.8	=	+0.34
Harrison Barnes	−1.71	×	9	÷	47.8	=	−0.32
Carter Bryant	−5.19	×	6	÷	47.8	=	−0.65
Maliq Brown	−2.00	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.04
Ja'Kobi Gillespie	−2.00	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.04
David Jones Garcia	−2.00	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.04
Tarris Reed Jr.	−2.00	×	1	÷	47.8	=	−0.04
SAS team rating (sum)			239				+11.54

predicted margin = SAS − OKC = +11.54 − (+17.61) = −6.07 → pick OKC

final margin = 104 − 116 = −12 → won OKC ✓

48 = a team’s minutes ÷ 5 (240 in regulation; box-score minutes are rounded, so it can read 47.6 to 48.6, and more in overtime). Ratings and margins are points per 100 possessions; a game runs about 100. Dim ratings count as −2.0 (under 250 minutes last season, or not rated).

Box score

minutes played × preseason ratings

OKC	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	36	+12.7	+11.7	+10.0	+6.0	+6.9	+8.9	+6.4	+5.8	+9.3	+6.7
Chet Holmgren	31	+6.1	+4.2	+5.5	+4.0	+4.5	+5.6	+5.7	+4.6	+5.3	+5.1
Jalen Williams	30	+2.0	+2.1	+3.3	+2.2	+0.7	+3.2	+2.8	+1.4	+1.9	+1.6
Cason Wallace	19	+1.0	+1.2	+1.6	+1.8	+3.9	+1.3	+1.3	+2.3	+2.5	+2.2
Isaiah Hartenstein	17	+3.0	+4.2	+3.3	+3.1	+3.5	+4.3	+4.2	+3.3	+3.3	+3.6
Alex Caruso	25	+2.5	+1.9	+1.8	+2.2	+4.0	+3.2	+3.4	+2.2	+4.4	+2.3
Ajay Mitchell	23	+2.1	+1.9	+3.2	+1.3	+2.5

SAS	min	LOKI†	BPM	EPM proj.	DARKO	OpenRAPM	EPM	xPM	Pulse	xRAPM	LEBRON
Victor Wembanyama	34	+10.0	+10.7	+9.0	+6.2	+8.8	+8.8	+10.4	+8.9	+10.2	+7.6
Dylan Harper	32	+1.5	+1.4	+3.5	+0.5	+1.2	+2.8	+1.7	−0.6	+4.5	+0.9
De'Aaron Fox	32	+2.4	+2.2	+3.5	+2.4	+1.8	+3.4	+1.3	+2.4	+3.6	+1.7
Devin Vassell	31	+1.6	+0.5	+1.8	+1.5	+1.6	+1.9	+0.9	+0.4	+1.3	−0.1
Stephon Castle	28	+1.2	+1.9	+3.3	+1.4	+2.3	+1.8	+1.3	+1.2	+1.5	+1.5
Julian Champagnie	30	+1.6	+1.4	+1.4	+1.5	+3.0	+1.8	+1.2	+1.1	+2.4	+1.5
Keldon Johnson	20	−0.4	+0.9	−1.0	−0.5	−0.3	−1.5	−0.4	−0.2	−0.5	+0.5
Luke Kornet	13	+1.3	+3.6	+0.9	+0.8	+2.0	+0.4	+2.6	+2.5	+2.5	+0.9
Harrison Barnes	9	−1.7	−0.1	+0.4	+0.5	−0.2	+0.9	−2.4	−0.2	−1.9	+0.1
Carter Bryant	6	−5.2	−3.0	−2.7	−2.4	−2.0	−3.5	−1.5	−3.7	−0.6	−1.2
Maliq Brown	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Ja'Kobi Gillespie	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
David Jones Garcia	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Tarris Reed Jr.	1	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0	−2.0
Team rating	239	+11.5	+13.1	+14.4	+8.7	+12.4	+12.9	+11.2	+9.1	+15.8	+9.1