Preseason predictions: the probability that a player reaches the next ARC tier within three seasons, made before opening night from seasons already played, and not updated during the season.
How ARC works →Player projectionsPreseasonPreseason predictions, made before opening night and not updated during the season. Age 27 and under, never at All-Star level (two-year ARC 4.5+). The probability that he gets there within three seasons.
| Odds | Through 2025–26 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Player | Breakout ↓ | Star | 2-yr ARC | Tier | Peak |
| 1 | Jalen DurenDET · Center · 23 | 76% | 48% | +3.1494 | Starter | Starter |
| 2 | Tyrese MaxeyPHI · Guard · 26 | 56% | 36% | +4.2998 | Starter | Starter |
| 3 | Ausar ThompsonDET · Wing · 24 | 48% | 20% | +3.8297 | Starter | Starter |
| 4 | Cooper FlaggDAL · Wing · 20 | 46% | 36% | +1.1378 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 5 | Cade CunninghamDET · Guard · 25 | 46% | 27% | +4.2098 | Starter | Starter |
| 6 | Kon KnueppelCHA · Wing · 21 | 38% | 27% | +2.8793 | Starter | Starter |
| 7 | Day'Ron SharpeBKN · Center · 25 | 25% | 7% | +3.5895 | Starter | Starter |
| 8 | Dylan HarperSAS · Guard · 20 | 24% | 19% | +1.2981 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 9 | Evan MobleyCLE · Wing · 25 | 22% | 6% | +2.9994 | Starter | Starter |
| 10 | Scottie BarnesTOR · Wing · 25 | 19% | 9% | +2.6091 | Starter | Starter |
| 11 | Paul ReedDET · Center · 27 | 18% | 6% | +3.6996 | Starter | Starter |
| 12 | Brandin PodziemskiGSW · Guard · 23 | 18% | 7% | +1.6685 | Rotation | Starter |
| 13 | Jalen JohnsonATL · Wing · 25 | 16% | 8% | +2.0288 | Starter | Starter |
| 14 | Deni AvdijaPOR · Wing · 26 | 15% | 4% | +1.3281 | Rotation | Starter |
| 15 | Kel'el WareMIL · Center · 22 | 14% | 7% | +0.0962 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 16 | Alperen SengunHOU · Center · 24 | 14% | 5% | +0.5770 | Rotation | Starter |
| 17 | Josh GiddeyCHI · Guard · 24 | 13% | 8% | +1.7386 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 18 | Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · Guard · 26 | 13% | 7% | +1.1979 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 19 | Jeremiah FearsNOP · Guard · 20 | 11% | 6% | −2.2322 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 20 | Tre JonesCHI · Guard · 27 | 11% | 4% | +1.4483 | Rotation | Starter |
| 21 | Jalen WilliamsOKC · Guard · 25 | 11% | 5% | +0.9175 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 22 | Cason WallaceOKC · Guard · 23 | 10% | 6% | −0.3653 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 23 | Jalen SuggsORL · Guard · 25 | 10% | 6% | +2.8292 | Starter | Starter |
| 24 | Donovan ClinganPOR · Center · 22 | 10% | 4% | +1.0977 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 25 | Stephon CastleSAS · Guard · 22 | 10% | 6% | +0.1764 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 26 | Trey Murphy IIINOP · Wing · 26 | 10% | 5% | +1.5985 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 27 | Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · Wing · 21 | 9% | 4% | −0.7447 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 28 | Ryan RollinsMIL · Guard · 24 | 9% | 6% | +2.8692 | Starter | Starter |
| 29 | VJ EdgecombePHI · Guard · 21 | 8% | 5% | +0.8675 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 30 | LaMelo BallMIN · Guard · 25 | 8% | 5% | +2.5690 | Starter | Starter |
| 31 | Alex SarrWAS · Center · 21 | 7% | 4% | −0.4551 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 32 | Keyonte GeorgeUTA · Guard · 23 | 7% | 5% | −1.5433 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 33 | Immanuel QuickleyTOR · Guard · 27 | 6% | 2% | +0.8174 | Rotation | Starter |
| 34 | Ajay MitchellOKC · Guard · 24 | 6% | 3% | +1.3381 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 35 | Egor DëminBKN · Guard · 20 | 6% | 4% | −0.5749 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 36 | Moussa DiabatéCHA · Center · 25 | 6% | 1% | +3.5996 | Starter | Starter |
| 37 | Paolo BancheroORL · Wing · 24 | 6% | 2% | +0.0862 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 38 | Mark WilliamsPHX · Center · 25 | 5% | 2% | −1.0343 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 39 | Reed SheppardHOU · Guard · 22 | 5% | 5% | −2.2322 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 40 | Will RileyWAS · Wing · 20 | 5% | 2% | −3.549 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 41 | Collin GillespiePHX · Guard · 27 | 4% | 2% | +2.9093 | Starter | Starter |
| 42 | Joan BeringerMIN · Wing · 20 | 4% | 2% | · | · | · |
| 43 | Neemias QuetaBOS · Center · 27 | 4% | 1% | +3.7596 | Starter | Starter |
| 44 | Kasparas JakučionisMIL · Guard · 20 | 4% | 2% | −1.4036 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 45 | Tyler HerroMIL · Guard · 27 | 3% | 1% | +0.1263 | Rotation | Starter |
| 46 | Justin ChampagnieWAS · Wing · 25 | 3% | 1% | +1.2880 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 47 | Ronald Holland IIDET · Wing · 21 | 3% | 1% | −2.1923 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 48 | Cedric CowardMEM · Guard · 23 | 3% | 2% | +2.2989 | Starter | Starter |
| 49 | Sandro MamukelashviliLAL · Center · 27 | 3% | 1% | +1.7686 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 50 | Kyle FilipowskiUTA · Center · 23 | 3% | 1% | +0.4669 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 51 | Bilal CoulibalyWAS · Wing · 22 | 3% | 2% | −1.4535 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 52 | Cam ChristieLAC · Guard · 21 | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 53 | Jaren Jackson Jr.UTA · Center · 27 | 3% | 1% | +2.8692 | Starter | Starter |
| 54 | Javon SmallMEM · Guard · 24 | 3% | 2% | +0.6271 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 55 | Shaedon SharpePOR · Guard · 23 | 3% | 2% | −0.9844 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 56 | Brandon MillerCHA · Wing · 24 | 3% | 1% | +1.6385 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 57 | Tari EasonHOU · Wing · 25 | 3% | 1% | +0.6271 | Rotation | Starter |
| 58 | Saddiq BeyNOP · Wing · 27 | 3% | 1% | +1.0677 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 59 | GG JacksonMEM · Wing · 22 | 2% | 1% | −1.3038 | Rotation | Rotation |
| 60 | Onyeka OkongwuATL · Center · 26 | 2% | 1% | +0.6271 | Rotation | Rotation |
Preseason predictions, not updated in season. Tiers are two-year ARC: Superstar 8+, Star 5.5+, All-Star level 4.5+, Starter 2+. Two-year ARC is the published ARC board’s 2-year view. Probabilities cover 2026–27 to 2028–29 and use only seasons before 2026–27. Small numbers are percentiles among every player shown for that season. “·” = already reached, or too few possessions. LUMA Basketball Research.