Research
LUMA Research
Methodology papers, blog posts, and data.
LUMA Paper Nº 004
Points Above Cost
Current measures of scoring value combine shooting volume and efficiency but hold a third quantity fixed at league average: the price of the possessions consumed. This paper estimates that price from 108,895 NBA player absences and introduces Points Above Cost (PAC).
LUMA Paper Nº 003
xPTS: Basketball’s xG
A shot-quality expected points model for the NBA, priced per attempt against league average, extended into expected wins, player and team leaderboards, and a decomposition of regularized adjusted plus-minus into shot-quality impact and conversion impact.
LUMA Paper Nº 001
ARC
The Adjusted Regularized Contribution NBA Impact Model
LUMA’s descriptive NBA player impact model, blending box-priored regularized adjusted plus-minus with possession-level production value.
LUMA Paper Nº 002
C-ARC
Modeling college basketball impact
A college basketball player impact metric adapting the ARC framework to the collegiate game, blending opponent-adjusted production with a team-strength-priored RAPM. Interactive leaderboards, full methodology, and validation.