Franz Wagner's Shot Selection - The Key to Magic Wins

As we all know, the NBA is programmed and wired to be an offensive show on the court. Everybody wants to score in bunches—whether it benefits their team or not. But is putting up big numbers while taking bad shots beneficial? Or is it better to take high-quality shots, even at the cost of lower scoring totals?

The Franz

Franz Wagner comes from the European background and style of play. He has a focus of passing the ball (averaging 4 assists per game over his career) and ball movement to create open looks not only for himself but teammates. Franz Wagner is a key building block in the resurgence of the Orlando Magic. Coming out of Michigan, he wasn't a high-volume scorer, averaging 12 points per game in 2 seasons with the Wolverines. He was more of a stat stuffer, having his hands all over the court than a pure scorer. Since coming to the Magic, he has developed his offensive game to be a nice one-two punch with Banchero. Overall, he isn't a great three-point shooter, boasting a low 32% three-point percentage for his career. He is in the top 25 currently with 23.2 points per game for his career, shooting a total of 47% so far, and last year finished 15th in the league with 24.2 points per game. He has a low three-point percentage but a high overall shooting average. Is there something to his shot taking and where he shoots from that directly helps and hurts the Magic in a game?

The Breakdown

I have looked at where Franz shoots the ball from on the court, his shooting percentage, and whether they lead to Magic wins or losses. Franz being a hybrid forward—meaning he can play both inside and out, and handle the ball when needed—his metrics are a little different than someone like Banchero. We put his dividing line at shots over 18 feet and shots under 18 feet. We then look at shooting percentage and finally whether the Magic win or not.

So, What Do We Have?

Right off the bat, we have a good sign for Franz. On opening night, he took a total of 17 shots, 12 being inside 18 feet and 5 being outside 18 feet. He shot 53% from the field and the Magic won. That's a decent spread on the shot line, and it led to a good shooting percentage and to a win. This is just a short example of how we look at and breakdown each game. As you can see in Franz's shooting chart below, the further he went out, he missed and the more his shooting percentage went down. These are possible possessions that in close games can cost the Magic a win.